According to Shearer, the US has “over-imported” refined copper by nearly 600,000 tonnes, locking up inventory within the country and tightening availability in Asia. The result is a bullish near-term setup, with a refined copper deficit of around 300,000 tonnes expected next year, largely due to disruptions at key mines such as Grasberg.
While Chinese demand remains slightly soft, Shearer believes supply risks will dominate: “We ultimately think these disruptions are not going away,” he said, indicating that the market will stay tight well into 2026.
Aluminium, too, is likely to stay strong, with JPMorgan projecting prices around $3,000 per tonne by first quarter of 2026. The market remains “balanced but tight,” driven by outages in Iceland and possible capacity losses in Mozambique, while Chinese output is capped at 45 million tonnes.Shearer noted that aluminium is also being supported by copper’s strength. However, new supply from Indonesia in 2026–27 could ease prices later. “At prices close to $3,000, Indonesian producers will be well incentivised to bring on supply,” he said.
While the market is now consolidating, JPMorgan sees gold averaging $4,600–$4,700 in 2026, with a year-end target near $5,000 per ounce.
“We remain very bullish,” he said, adding that central banks are expected to buy around 760 tonnes next year, with ETF inflows of about 360 tonnes.
For the entire discussion, watch the accompanying video
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