Friday, November 14, 2025

Mahesh Patil says market returns to mirror earnings, sees 10-14% upside

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Mahesh Patil, Chief Investment Officer at Aditya Birla Sun Life Asset Management Company, has a constructive outlook on the Indian market,  and believes returns will likely align with earnings growth in the coming year. He projects a potential market upside of 10-14% and recommends a cautious, basket-based approach for investing in new-age technology companies.Patil highlighted several factors supporting his view: the halt in earnings downgrades after four weak quarters, an improved earnings outlook from the October-December quarter of 2025 (Q3FY26) onwards, and a potential consumption boost from goods and services tax (GST) cuts, especially for the auto sector.

On the global markets, expectations of a US-China trade deal and the return of foreign investors, who were net buyers in October, are improving sentiment. Patil also stated that India’s relative valuation is now “no longer as expensive as it was a year back.”

Turning to the expanding new-age technology sector, Patil described it as an interesting but complex space. He explained that valuing these high-growth, low-profitability companies on traditional metrics like price-to-earnings is difficult.

Also Read: Geoffrey Dennis sees money moving from China to India
His firm’s strategy involves taking a longer-term view. “We would try to forecast their earnings for the next five years because over the next five years the high growth would translate into decent or stable earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) margins,” he said. This forward-looking projection allows for valuation on more traditional multiples later, which are then discounted back.Also Read: MobiKwik tightens risk controls, says break-even now within reach

He emphasised the critical importance of competitive intensity, stating that sectors like quick commerce still see intense rivalry, which can impact profitability. To navigate this, his strategy is to “take small exposures, build up a basket and then watch the progress.” He gains comfort from the fact that many of these companies are market leaders in their respective domains. “One can’t ignore that sector,” he added.

Aditya Birla Sun Life Asset Management Company has a market capitalisation of around ₹21,840.75 crore, and its shares have fallen by nearly 5% over the past year.

The total assets under management (AUM) as of the last day of September 2025 stood at $3.30 billion.

For the entire interview, watch the accompanying video

Catch all the latest updates from the stock market here

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