He points out that Bitcoin operates in a repeating four-year cycle, each cycle typically includes about one to one-and-a-half years of a strong rally, followed by roughly two years of consolidation or downtrend.
Many investors, Noorani says, make the mistake of using short-term charts to make long-term investment decisions. “If you look at the charts as an investor, you first need to look at the cycle of Bitcoin, which occurs every four years,” he explained. Instead of focusing on quarterly or long-term patterns, retail investors often rely on weekly or monthly charts — a strategy better suited for traders.He adds that such an approach causes many investors to enter or exit at the wrong time. “What happens with people holding it for six months or one year is they get trapped in the two-and-a-half-year downtrend,” he warned.
Noorani believes that success in Bitcoin investing depends on aligning one’s time horizon with the market’s natural rhythm.For short-term players, he suggests intraday or swing trading — strategies based on daily or hourly movements.
For long-term investors, he recommends holding through the full four-year cycle, provided they understand the asset’s volatility and the broader trend.
However, he cautions against mid-term holding periods of a few months to a year. “Don’t hold it for a few months. It will not give you good returns if you don’t time it properly,” he said, noting that few investors can consistently predict short-term swings amid news-driven volatility and institutional activity.
Noorani suggests that investors maintain a disciplined approach to crypto exposure. “If you have a portfolio of ₹100, then ₹10 should be allocated into crypto if you are conservative. If you are more aggressive, you can go up to 20–25%,” he advised.
Within this allocation, he recommends 70–80% in Bitcoin, 10–15% in top altcoins, and only 5–7% in meme coins.
The latter, he cautions, should be handled carefully due to their extreme volatility and tendency to disappear quickly.
