In dropping tariffs for much of the world while simultaneously escalating pressure on Beijing, Trump has engineered a real-time geopolitical audition. Countries are now participants in a new format of economic diplomacy — America’s Next Top Trade Partner. The terms are blunt: court Washington, sideline China, and hope your exports are not caught in the next temperamental tariff wave.
Underpinning this strategy — if one dares to dignify it with that term — is a shrewd, if deeply cynical, calculus. Trump views trade not as a conduit for shared growth, but as a blunt instrument of dominance. The 90-day suspension is not about de-escalation. It is a combing mechanism to identify the amenable, the anxious, and the expendable.The tone of this strategy was made even more unvarnished — and frankly, unbecoming — when President Trump, speaking at a private donor dinner, boasted, “These countries are calling us up, kissing my a*.”* This crass quip, delivered with theatrical bravado to a roomful of Republican lawmakers, may have drawn laughs, but it should also draw alarm. It reveals the psychological underpinning of his tariff diplomacy — not as a pursuit of fairness or parity, but as an exercise in extracting submission. The global trade arena is no longer a negotiation table; it is, in his imagination, a throne room. The message to other sovereign nations is clear: genuflect, or pay. For world leaders navigating economic fragility and domestic political complexities, such vulgar triumphalism is not merely distasteful — it is profoundly destabilising.
China’s response to Trump’s tariff barrages has been marked not by desperation, but by deliberate defiance. Far from crumbling under economic pressure, Beijing has doubled down on its long-term strategy of self-reliance and systemic insulation. It remains the only country to span all 41 industrial categories defined by the United Nations, allowing it to absorb shocks while preserving its production sovereignty. Moreover, its sharp pivot towards technological independence — spurred by U.S. sanctions — has only intensified its innovation drive. Despite sweeping American restrictions on advanced chips and AI technology transfers, China has made formidable gains in generative AI, quantum research, and semiconductor workarounds. Rather than choking its rise, the West’s attempts at technological containment have arguably accelerated its ambitions. This resilience, and the calm clarity with which China executes its countermeasures, is perhaps the greatest source of consternation in Washington. For every tariff announced, Beijing unveils a more long-term industrial hedge. Trump may thunder at podiums, but China replies, methodically, with five-year plans.
While Beijing responds with blueprints, Washington counters with bluster.
Trump has perfected the art of weaponising uncertainty. Every announcement is laced with ambiguity, every policy an invitation to react, recalibrate, or retreat. While the world looks for rules, Trump deals in riddles. Economists call it asymmetric risk; diplomats might more accurately describe it as power theatre laced with grievance politics. There is no multilateralism here, only transactionalism dressed in nationalist overtones.
India must approach this moment with calibrated assertiveness. While the temporary pause on tariffs may appear to offer breathing room, it does not guarantee stability. New Delhi must avoid the temptation to align impulsively with Washington’s shifting winds or to treat American approval as strategic validation. India’s strength lies in its ability to straddle complex relationships without succumbing to ideological dependencies. Strategic autonomy is not a relic of non-alignment; it is a necessity in an age of volatile global alignments.
For all its bluster, the Trump doctrine inadvertently presents an opportunity — for countries like India to anchor a more mature, multipolar economic discourse. One that is not held hostage to the emotional crescendos of populist strongmen, but is built on principle, predictability, and mutual respect. We owe the world no obsequiousness. But we do owe ourselves a posture that reflects dignity, discipline, and discernment.
The US appears to be on a breakneck, near-berserk trajectory — attempting to bulldoze through global consensus and bedazzle trading partners into reluctant submission. The implications for its own domestic economy remain wildly uncertain, as if dictated by the flip of a coin — or perhaps a spin of a campaign rally slogan. As for the rest of the world, left grappling with whiplash and instability, the chaos seems incidental to Washington’s bravado. In time, the Chinese fortune cookie — once a playful staple of American Chinese cuisine — may well deliver a message far more sobering than sweet: a future where America’s swagger no longer dictates the script.
Rather than react to every tremor in Trump’s tariff terrain, India must convert this volatility into leverage. As global manufacturers scramble to rebalance supply chains away from China, New Delhi should position itself not merely as a fallback option, but as a forward-looking partner — one that offers rule-of-law stability, digital regulatory clarity, and cost-efficient scale. Strategic trade agreements with blocs like the EU and ASEAN, targeted not just for tariff concessions but for mutual access to intermediate goods and green technologies, can anchor India in the heart of future value chains. At the same time, India does need to keep the United States in good humour — not out of deference, but due to a constellation of strategic and tactical interests, from defence partnerships to tech transfers.
But that realism must not dim India’s broader posture. New Delhi has earned its reputation as a trusted ally to many nations — not by default as “the enemy’s enemy,” but as a fair-minded confidant committed to balance, predictability, and principled engagement. Yet in the fierce race now unfolding across rare minerals, advanced manufacturing, digital infrastructure, AI, and quantum computing, India does need a leg-up. The tools are within reach — from PLI recalibrations to rare earth alliances and digital trust diplomacy. It’s not just about finding a seat at the table. It’s about reshaping the table itself.
—The author, Dr. Srinath Sridharan ( @ssmumbai), is a Corporate advisor & Independent Director on Corporate Boards. The views expressed are personal.
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