New US enforcement rules could expose foreign manufacturers and others in the supply chain to criminal charges over false customs filings, raising compliance risks for Indian exporters.The United States (U.S.) Department of Justice’s Trade Fraud Task Force has surpassed $1 billion in recoveries, penalties, forfeitures, and charged losses since its launch in August 2025. US Customs and Border Protection (CBP) has assessed a further $2.1 billion in commercial trade penalties this fiscal year.Continue Reading with CNBC-TV18 Access MembershipPriority Access and Networking: CNBC-TV18’s flagship events Interaction with CNBC-TV18’s journalists Webinars & LIVE Q&As with India Inc. Leaders Exclusive CNBC-TV18 studio & newsroom tours Premium business insights, expert opinions & analysis Curated lifestyle privileges & offers
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Selling to America? New US fraud rules raise the stakes for Indian exporters
From energy to electronics, India’s key sectors still rely heavily on imports
India’s push for self-reliance has changed the country’s production landscape, but it has not eliminated its dependence on overseas supplies. In fact, the exposure varies sharply across sectors — and is particularly high in some of the inputs that sit deep inside India’s industrial supply chains.Crisil’s latest Quickanomics report titled “The shackles of import dependence” shows that over 10% of India’s total domestic supply is met through imports (based on Supply Use Tables at current prices for FY24).Among the eight broad sectors analysed by Crisil, mining has the highest import dependence at 35.4%, followed by manufacturing at 13.8%. Public administration, defence and other services stood at 10.8%, while financial, real estate and professional services were at 8.3%.Agriculture and allied activities had import dependence of 1.9%, trade, hotels, transport and communication services 4%, construction 0.3%, and electricity and utilities effectively 0%.Importantly, these percentages represent the share of a sector’s total domestic supply that is met through imports — not the sector’s contribution to GDP or its share of India’s total imports.Mining: the biggest broad-sector exposureThe 35.4% figure for mining is driven in large part by India’s dependence on imported energy and mineral resources. Crisil puts crude oil import dependence at around 85-90%, while natural gas stands at 66.1%. Copper ore is another major exposure, with imports accounting for 68.8% of domestic supply.This is where the distinction between sector size and strategic importance matters. Mining and quarrying contributes only around 2% of India’s nominal GVA, according to MoSPI estimates, but imported energy and mineral inputs feed into transportation, manufacturing, power and other parts of the economy.Manufacturing: the headline number hides deeper vulnerabilitiesManufacturing’s overall import dependence is much lower than mining’s, at 13.8%. But the sector contains several industries where overseas supplies remain important.Crisil’s product-level analysis shows import dependence of 56.5% for gems and jewellery, 29.8% for electronics, 23.5% for transport products, 18.3% for rubber and plastic products and 18.1% for machinery and equipment.This is a crucial point for the story: a sector can become more domestically productive while still relying heavily on imported components, raw materials or intermediate goods.Electronics: India is making more, but importing key componentsElectronics is perhaps the clearest example.India has significantly expanded domestic electronics manufacturing, particularly mobile-phone assembly. Yet Crisil estimates 29.8% import dependence for electronics, with domestic value addition in mobile phones at around 20%.The component bill remains substantial. Electronic integrated circuits accounted for $30 billion in net imports in FY26, according to the report, while electric accumulators and electric circuit apparatus each accounted for around $4.9 billion. So the story is not simply that India imports finished electronics. A significant part of the dependence lies further upstream in the value chain.Chemicals, batteries, cables and plasticsCrisil also flags chemicals as an area of significant import dependence. Organic chemicals have an import dependence of 36.5%, making them particularly important given their use across pharmaceuticals, agriculture, textiles and other industries.Some of the newer manufacturing ecosystems also have notable import exposure. Crisil puts import dependence at 29.7% for batteries, 36.9% for electrical cables and wires and 23.9% for plastic products.These are increasingly important inputs for electric vehicles, renewable energy, electronics, power infrastructure and other areas of India’s investment cycle.Agriculture: low overall dependence, but important exceptionsAgriculture and allied activities have just 1.9% import dependence at the broad-sector level, according to Crisil.But that does not mean agriculture is insulated from imports. The report notes that India imported 56.2% of its domestic edible-oil consumption in FY24, while fertiliser import dependence stood at 31.3%.That distinction is worth highlighting because it shows why broad sector-level numbers should not be used on their own to assess import vulnerability.Why import dependence matters more nowThe issue has become more pressing because global supply chains are becoming harder to predict.Crisil points to elevated commodity prices since 2021 and a sharp rise in global trade restrictions. The number of restrictive trade interventions has increased faster than trade-liberalising measures since the pandemic.For India, the risk is two-fold: a disruption can hit production while higher global prices can simultaneously add to inflation.The government has already used the PLI scheme to strengthen electronics manufacturing, while the Electronic Component Manufacturing Scheme, India Semiconductor Mission and Rare Earth Permanent Magnet Scheme are aimed at filling gaps further up the supply chain.But becoming self-reliant does not mean producing everything at home. The more realistic goal is to ensure that critical inputs have multiple sources, adequate strategic reserves and enough domestic capacity to absorb a global supply shock.And that may be the most important takeaway from the Crisil numbers: India’s import problem is not that the country imports too much. It is that some of the things it imports are too important to be disrupted.
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India cuts sugar stock limit to 15 days: What it means for prices and supply
India has tightened sugar stockholding rules for bulk consumers as sugar prices rise ahead of the festive season, with the government limiting inventories to 15 days for businesses that use or consume more than 10 metric tonnes of sugar a month.The new order was issued by the Department of Food and Public Distribution on August 19 under the Essential Commodities Act, 1955. It will come into effect on September 1 and remain in force until November 30.The latest order applies specifically to bulk consumers. These include confectioners, soft drink manufacturers, food processing industries, sweetmeat sellers and other institutional buyers whose average monthly sugar consumption during the previous year, excluding the current month, was at least 10 metric tonnes.Any such bulk consumer using or consuming more than 10 metric tonnes of sugar a month as a raw material for production, consumption or other use cannot hold stocks for more than 15 days for that consumption or use.Institutions belonging to the Central Government, state governments, Union Territory administrations and local bodies are exempt from the order.The government will verify the quantity of sugar sold by each mill to bulk consumers, either directly or through dealers. Consumption will be determined using Goods and Services Tax returns filed by sellers and buyers, with reference to the relevant Harmonised System of Nomenclature (HSN) code for sugar.Dealers already restrictedThe latest measure follows a separate order issued in July covering sugar dealers across the country. That order came into effect on August 1 and will remain in force until November 30.The government said the earlier action was aimed at curbing hoarding, discouraging speculative trading, ensuring continuous availability of sugar at reasonable prices and protecting consumer interests. It also sought to maintain orderly domestic supplies and ensure that genuine trade and distribution activities continued without disruption.The government said the recent increase in ex-mill sugar prices was not supported by prevailing demand-supply fundamentals. It said hoarding by some traders, dealers and market intermediaries, along with speculative transactions and paper trading without actual physical movement of sugar from mills, had created an artificial perception of scarcity.The government said these practices had contributed to price volatility and higher ex-mill and retail sugar prices. It has maintained that adequate sugar is available to meet domestic consumption requirements.Dealers are required to declare their sugar stocks and update their stock position every week through the Department of Food and Public Distribution’s online portal. The government said it would continue to monitor the market and take measures to ensure adequate supplies at reasonable prices.Prices riseThe latest tightening comes as sugar prices continue to rise despite the earlier stockholding restrictions. Indian sugar prices have increased about 10% over the past month to a record high, according to Reuters.The all-India average ex-mill sugar price reached ₹5,400-5,500 per quintal on August 18, compared with ₹3,900 a year earlier, according to an industry body. The average retail price rose 13% year-on-year to ₹52.30 per kg on August 18 from ₹46.34, according to Consumer Affairs Ministry data.The government is also considering other measures to improve domestic supplies and contain prices. These include limited duty-free imports and other changes to sugar availability, according to Reuters. The government is considering the measures ahead of the period when domestic demand normally increases.Festive demandSugar demand in India, the world’s biggest sugar consumer, typically rises between August and November as Ganesh Chaturthi, Dussehra and Diwali drive demand for sweets and confectionery. Bulk users such as biscuit and confectionery manufacturers also build inventories ahead of the festive season.The latest stock limit also comes ahead of the 2026-27 sugar season, which begins on October 1. Patchy rainfall and dry weather have affected sugarcane crops, adding to concerns over supplies for the coming season.The government has said its stockholding measures are intended to prevent hoarding and speculative activity, protect consumers, maintain price stability and ensure a transparent and efficient sugar supply chain.
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FCNR(B) inflows to boost liquidity, ease funding costs for banks: SBI, PNB, IndusInd chiefs
Foreign currency non-resident (FCNR) deposit inflows are set to strengthen liquidity and ease funding costs for Indian banks, with senior bankers saying the additional funds could also support credit growth.State Bank of India (SBI) Managing Director Ashwini Kumar Tewari said the strong inflows under the FCNR(B) scheme would improve liquidity for banks, while the impact on margins would largely be neutral.“Margin-wise, it’s neutral,” Tewari said in an exclusive interview with CNBC-TV18 at the Banking Transformation Summit. He added that the lower margin on the deposits would be offset by the regulatory benefits available to banks, including exemptions related to the cash reserve ratio (CRR), statutory liquidity ratio (SLR) and priority sector lending (PSL).“The important thing is liquidity. This is in turn replacing those high-cost bulk deposits and all, so overall, it should be good for the banking system,” Tewari said.The Reserve Bank of India had brought forward the deadline for the special FCNR(B) deposit window after strong inflows. The deposits had crossed $52 billion, raising expectations that the total could approach $70 billion by August 31.Tewari said SBI was close to meeting its internal target and that the early closure of the window would not materially affect the bank.“The flow has been really strong in the last 15 days and more. So, therefore, the number you talk about may be achieved,” he said, while adding that he could not comment on the pipeline at other banks.Punjab National Bank (PNB) Managing Director and CEO Ashok Chandra said the inflows would help banks on both the deposit and lending sides.“Definitely, it is going to ease the cost of deposit,” Chandra said, pointing to both the interest cost and the CRR and SLR exemptions associated with the deposits.Once the funds enter the banking system, they can be deployed for lending, potentially supporting credit growth, he said.Chandra also highlighted the broader significance of Indian banks accessing overseas funding markets. PNB had committed to raising around $2 billion-$2.5 billion and expects to cross that target.The bank has also initiated a process to raise $500 million through medium-term notes, with a further $500 million green-shoe option. In addition, PNB has raised $1 billion through overseas syndicated lending, with participation from Taiwanese, Japanese and Korean banks.Chandra said the increased participation of overseas investors showed the growing global interest in Indian banks and the Indian economy.IndusInd Bank Managing Director and CEO Rajiv Anand said the FCNR(B) opportunity had three components: retail deposits, funding obtained through bilateral transactions and arrangements with partner banks.He said IndusInd Bank was seeing good traction across all three channels and expected to capture around 3% of the overall FCNR(B) market.Anand also said the regulatory dispensations around CRR, SLR and PSL made the proposition attractive for banks, although the primary objective was to bring more foreign currency into the country.For smaller lenders, however, the impact is less direct. AU Small Finance Bank Managing Director and CEO Sanjay Agarwal said small finance banks had not participated significantly in the FCNR(B) opportunity because of the difficulty in arranging the required guarantees.He said larger banks having greater access to such funds could nevertheless have a positive effect on the wider banking ecosystem.Agarwal quipped that the FCNR(B) opportunity was for the “big daddies”, adding that if large banks such as SBI and PNB had ample liquidity, smaller lenders could benefit indirectly.The bankers’ comments suggest that the immediate benefit from the FCNR(B) inflows is likely to be stronger liquidity and lower funding pressure rather than a sharp expansion in net interest margins. For banks, the availability of relatively stable foreign-currency funding could also reduce their dependence on more expensive bulk deposits and create greater headroom for lending.Watch accompanying video for full conversation.
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ICICI Pru AMC’s Lalit Kumar bets on steel, textiles & manufacturing exporters; cautious on hospitals
This is an edited transcript of the interview.
Q: Is your heart in commodities? Is that something you are particularly passionate about?
A: I am passionate about commodities.
Q: From here, what are you more bullish on — the ferrous space or the non-ferrous space?A: From here on, while I am positive on both, ferrous is better placed. I think their earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) per tonne for most of these companies has structurally gone up.
Cyclically also, it will improve. But structurally, what we saw in the last decade, from 2010 to 2020, I think this decade they will have much higher EBITDA per tonne on a mid-cycle basis.
Their capex per tonne will be low because most of these companies are doing brownfield expansions. Effectively, their incremental return on capital (ROC) will be high. They will have very strong earnings growth, and that is why they are getting re-rated.
Q: Will you lean more towards long steel or flat steel? Long steel prices have corrected sharply, while flat steel has not corrected as much. The gap between the two has widened and is expected to narrow after the monsoon. Would you tilt towards longs?
A: In commodities, it is very important to be counter-cyclical. Anything which has been corrected or prices have gone down, that is where I will bet on.
Q: So, longs now are preferred?
A: Long now is preferred because long prices will, I think, go up, and long steel stocks will do better than flat.
Q: Where are we in the commodity cycle — early, middle or somewhere else?
A: We are still below mid-cycle. Some of the facts to look at are, for example, 2015 was the bottom of the cycle for steel. At that point in time, China’s steel exports were around 120 million tonne. Their current export rate is around a similar number, 110-120 million tonne.
Chinese steel companies’ EBITDA per tonne is still below mid-cycle, and that is the difference. Despite being below mid-cycle, Indian steel companies, even if you look at their April-June quarter of 2026 (Q1FY27) results, had EBITDA per tonne much higher than what they made in 2015.
That is why we think that structurally their EBITDA per tonne has gone up, their capex pattern has gone down, and that is why they are going to make very big [returns].
Q: When you say we are below mid-cycle in commodities, how many more years do you think this rally can continue?
A: That is also dependent on what happens as far as global demand is concerned and what happens on China policy. So, there are a lot of macro variables. One has to keep track of them, and whenever we think that the cycle has peaked out, that is the time when one should get out.
Q: What are the broad markers to know when the cycle has peaked?
A: When the most inefficient steel company is making a profit, that is the time to get out.
Q: Would that be an Indian stock?
A: I think Indian companies will have much better [profitability] than that, but I think it is better to keep track of what is happening globally. Globally, when the most inefficient steel companies start to make a profit, that is the time.
Q: You own some global names in the commodities fund. Are those mining companies?
A: They are mining companies. They are into copper and uranium.
Q: Are those holdings across your funds?
A: No, that is only in the commodities fund.
Q: Q1 earnings have been strong, with broad-based beats and upgrades. Can the 15% earnings growth expectation for 2026-27 (FY27) and 2027-28 (FY28) be extrapolated? Is that what you are working with at ICICI Prudential?
A: The beauty of the market, I think, is that the market does not work in a linear way, and it also does not work on Excel.
I think Q1 numbers have been very good across, but I will be a bit cautious in extrapolating these numbers. The reason for that is, in Q1, there was a lot of inventory gain that happened. Cost increases are yet to reflect in the numbers, and that, I think, will gradually catch up in coming quarters.
Even if you look at 2022-23, when oil prices went up during that time, for example, in the cement sector, oil prices started to increase from January onwards. Actual cement companies’ EBITDA per tonne bottomed out in the September quarter. So, there is always a lead-lag between an increase in cost and a fall in profitability.
I think Q1 will be too early to say that things are going to be good. We must watch the July-September quarter of 2026 (Q2FY27) and the October-December quarter of 2026 (Q3FY27) earnings.
At the same time, some of the tailwinds that were there in Q1 earnings, for example currency, that base will start to catch up from the October-December quarter of 2026 (Q3FY27) and the January-March quarter of 2027 (Q4FY27) onwards. So, with companies which are into exports, their earnings growth will start to normalise. Some of the sectors which benefited from the goods and services tax (GST) cut will also see the base start to catch up from Q3-Q4 onwards.
The point is that, now, it will be a bit early to extrapolate Q1 numbers.
Q: You sound a bit cautious. What are you expecting in Q2 and Q3?
A: I think growth will taper off from what we have seen in Q1 numbers. But at the same time, for markets, earnings are important. The market will also be focused on what happens to oil, what happens to geopolitics and what happens to midterm elections. These will be some of the other catalysts for the market.
Q: One of your top holdings is Hindustan Petroleum Corporation (HPCL). What is the investment bet there?
A: If you look at oil prices, say, if I look at the last 15-year history of oil, that gives us a perspective that whenever there is extreme euphoria or extreme pessimism, that does not sustain in the commodities market and in the oil market as well.
Look at 2014. Oil prices did correct to $30-$35, but they did not sustain. That was extreme pessimism. In 2018, oil prices rallied from $55 to $85. That also did not sustain. In 2020, oil prices were corrected. There was a day when oil prices went negative. That did not sustain. That was also extreme. In 2022, oil prices went to $120-$130 because of geopolitics. That also did not sustain. And now we are in the next catalyst, where because of geopolitics, oil prices have gone up.
The point is that whenever oil prices go to an extreme, as a contrarian, as a counter-cyclical investor, we prefer to take a contrarian bet.
When oil is at an extreme peak, we prefer to play downstream. When oil is at an extreme bottom, we prefer to buy upstream. That is the context in which I think we will be constructive to downstream companies rather than upstream.
Q: You have experience managing the Business Cycle Fund and identifying cycles. What are the two or three cycles or themes you believe can sustain for the next three to five years?
A: Sure.
Q: Let us start with textiles. Why do you like textiles and what is the thesis there?
A: Textile is a sector which will do well because a lot of steps have been taken because of geopolitics. A lot of steps have been taken by the government to make sure that our textile exports do well.
Textile is one of the big sectors as far as employment is concerned. It can be big for us to earn foreign reserves, and that is why there is a lot of focus by the government to promote exports for the textile sector.
India has signed a lot of foreign trade agreements (FTAs), and that basically gives longevity of growth for these companies. In any sector, any company where longevity of growth keeps on increasing, generally those companies do well; they get re-rated.
So, I think this is a sector where—
Q: Is it a sector where every company will do well, or do you have to be selective?
A: Garment-based companies will be better positioned because they are the ones who will be exporting and can have better pricing power.
Q: So, Gokaldas Exports, those kinds of names?
A: Companies which are into garment exports, apparel exports.
Q: Apart from textiles, what are the other cycles or themes that are set up well and could do well from here?
A: I think manufacturers, particularly companies which are into exports, are going to do very well.
Q: Manufacturing exports?
A: Yes. That is because currency is a big advantage as far as India is concerned. Geopolitics is the second tailwind for the sector.
Most of the companies in India which are into manufacturing and exports are trying to diversify and get into new categories. Effectively, that means that they will have a much better outlook for growth.
Q: So, do auto and auto-ancillary companies that are getting into different businesses and diversifying beyond their traditional businesses?
A: Yes. Companies which are into exports, diversifying into new categories, trying to do joint ventures (JVs) and getting access to technologies, I think those companies will do very well from a long-term perspective.
Q: But how are they priced? Many manufacturing companies are trading at 50, 60 or 70 times one-year or two-year forward earnings. How do you get conviction on those names?
A: If we can identify companies where earnings growth is going to accelerate, where consensus is yet to factor in that opportunity, those are companies that will do well.
Q: Does that mean you should not look at valuations?
A: In those companies, if the consensus estimate is underestimated, then those stocks will look expensive. When consensus earnings estimates go up, then I think that is time to be cautious on that topic.
Q: Can you tell us about the names in your portfolio where you see this opportunity?
A: We cannot discuss stocks, but happy to discuss [the themes].
Q: You own both Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) and Multi Commodity Exchange of India (MCX) in your portfolio. MCX is understandable given what is happening in commodities. What is the idea behind BSE? Capital markets is a consensus favourite.
A: When I construct a portfolio, I think both from a cycle perspective and a structural perspective, exchanges are businesses which are very good.
The industry structure is positive — monopoly, duopoly kind of structure, very good ROC — and they tend to do well from a long-term perspective.
These are some of the sectors or subcategories which are structurally very well placed to take advantage of the financialisation of savings that is going to happen.
I think these are structural businesses to own from a long-term perspective, because of industry structure and the compounding that they can generate.
Q: Are you excited about the new one coming in, the Nation Stock Exchange (NSE)? The initial public offering (IPO) should be around the corner.
A: We have to evaluate and see.
Q: Where are we now in the cement cycle? Could cement be the contra trade for the second half of the year, post monsoon?
A: If we look at their EBITDA pattern, and that is one of the metrics to identify where we are in the cycle, we are somewhere closer to mid-cycle in the sector.
But I think in coming quarters, maybe they will have some pressure on their profitability because of higher energy prices that we talked about.
At the same time, I think this is a sector which is under-earning as far as ROC is concerned. Of course, companies are going after volume and market share, because of which stocks have not done well.
But I think at some point in time, pricing discipline will come in. Companies will focus on ROC, and that is a time when I think cycles will come.
So, from a cycle perspective, the cement sector is well placed.
Q: The Nifty has given virtually zero returns over the past year. Is it time to look at large caps? If so, what is your preferred bet within large caps?
A: Of course, large caps have been corrected. Valuations are now at the lower end, but I would prefer to own sectors within large caps where companies can deliver growth.
Q: Where is that growth going to come from?
A: Cement will be one of the sectors that will do well. Airline will be another sector that can do well, and non-banking financial companies (NBFCs), I think, are also doing well.
Those are the spaces or sectors, some subcategories, that I think will do well.
Companies which are not able to grow, I think they will continue to struggle.
Q: So even within the Nifty, you have to identify which companies are going to grow?
A: I am a believer of sectors, and that is what I learned from the Business Cycle Fund. Identify sectors which will be in an upcycle. Identify sectors which I think will have good earnings growth. Those are the sectors to bet on.
Q: You have spoken about textiles, manufacturing and cement. Which are the sectors where you think margins have peaked or where investors should be cautious?
A: Some of the sectors where I think margins have peaked out — hospitals is one of the sectors where we are a bit cautious because margins are at an all-time high. Multiples are also closer to their peak.
From a counter-cyclical investing perspective, sectors where margins are at a peak, I will try to avoid those.
Watch the full conversation here
Q: But hospitals go through a phase of capacity addition, then they earn and then they go into another cycle. Isn’t that capacity addition phase coming to an end now?
A: You are right. The way the cycle plays out is that at the peak of the cycle, operating cash flow will be very high. Companies will invest, supply comes in and the cycle turns.
Then, at the bottom of the cycle, companies’ operating cash flow dries down; they will not add capacity. The cycle then turns.
In the case of hospitals, margins are at the peak. Companies are adding capacity. So, over the next three years, we will see significant capacity addition that is going to happen.
Q: What are your thoughts on new-age platform companies? Many in the industry believe these are high-growth areas and that investors must have exposure.
A: As a house, we are always open to ideas. We evaluate every company. A few companies will do very well, but one has to be cognizant of the fact that every company does not have a moat.
Within this pack of new-age companies, it is better to identify and play with companies which have a long-term moat, so that they can compound and do well.
Companies without a moat, I think they will struggle at some point in time.
Q: So, will it be selective rather than trying to buy the sector as a basket?
A: Yes, it will be selective rather than trying to buy as a basket.
India’s income growth is lagging consumption, says CLSA; GDP seen easing to 6% in FY27
India’s household income growth is not keeping pace with consumption, a trend that could weigh on consumer spending over time, according to Nikhil Gupta, India Economist at CLSA.The brokerage expects India’s GDP growth to moderate to around 6% in the current financial year 2026-27 (FY27), with growth slowing to about 5.5% in the second half of the financial year amid base effects, weather risks, fiscal constraints and softer consumption.Gupta said CLSA’s analysis, based on proxies including agricultural and rural wages, MNREGA wages, listed company salary bills and state government employee costs, points to a slowdown in income growth in the June quarter.While the brokerage estimates gross domestic product (GDP) growth for the April-June 2026 quarter at slightly above 7%, it expects momentum to weaken later in the year.”Our analysis suggests that… we have seen a sharp deceleration in their real income growth in the first quarter,” Gupta said. He added that income growth was still lagging consumption growth in FY26 and that this trend has continued into the first quarter of FY27.According to CLSA, households have been sustaining consumption by drawing down savings and taking on more debt. Gupta said this pattern has persisted for several years and could become a concern if income growth does not improve.”It is okay if it happens for a couple of years… but this is not a sustainable model,” he said. He clarified that the trend is unlikely to cause an immediate deterioration in bank asset quality or economic growth, but could weigh on the economy if income growth fails to improve over the coming years.Gupta noted that India’s household debt-service ratio has risen, leaving less disposable income for savings and consumption. He also pointed to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) data showing an increase in borrowers with multiple live loans, indicating that existing borrowers are taking on more debt rather than credit reaching new borrowers.Despite these concerns, Gupta said current indicators such as bank asset quality and consumer spending remain resilient. However, CLSA believes risks could emerge gradually if income growth does not recover.On the macro outlook, Gupta said CLSA has not changed its inflation forecast and continues to expect average inflation of around 5% for FY27, with inflation likely to peak at around 6% in the December quarter before easing.The brokerage expects GDP growth of slightly above 7% in the June quarter, but forecasts growth to slow to around 5.5% in the second half, citing base effects, possible El Niño-related disruptions, fiscal restraint and pressure on consumption.For the full interview, watch the accompanying videoCatch all the latest updates from the stock market here
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India’s new PNG incentive scheme from Sept 1: How will households benefit
The government has approved an incentive scheme to accelerate the expansion of domestic piped natural gas (PNG) connections, with the scheme set to take effect from September 1, 2026.The scheme will incentivise city gas distribution (CGD) companies to convert unbilled domestic PNG connections into active, billed connections and expand the PNG network to new areas.India currently has around 1.74 crore domestic PNG connections, according to the government.Under the scheme, eligible CGD entities will receive an additional allocation of 200 standard cubic metres (SCM) of domestically produced, lower-priced APM gas for every incremental billed domestic PNG connection achieved above a specified threshold for the respective geographical area.The scheme will run in two tranches over a period of six months.The additional APM gas allocation will replace some of the costlier liquefied natural gas (LNG) that CGD companies currently procure for their compressed natural gas (CNG) transport operations. This is expected to lower their overall gas-sourcing costs.According to the government, the resulting savings could reduce the payback period for capital expenditure on domestic PNG connections from around 10 years to about three years. This is expected to encourage CGD companies to expand household PNG connections at a faster pace.What the scheme means for householdsPNG provides households with a piped supply of cooking gas, eliminating the need to book, store and replace LPG cylinders. Consumers are billed based on their metered consumption.The government said PNG can also offer safety and convenience benefits because it is supplied through pipelines at low pressure and does not require households to store cylinders.The scheme is part of the government’s broader efforts to expand the use of PNG as a cooking fuel. These include streamlined regulatory approvals for PNG infrastructure, standardised Right-of-Way charges and efforts to encourage states to reduce VAT on natural gas to 5%.The government has also launched the National PNG Drive 2.0, which includes measures such as household awareness campaigns, LPG cylinder surrender facilities and efforts to convert housing societies from LPG to PNG.A unified digital portal for applying for and tracking new PNG connections is also under development.First Published: Aug 19, 2026 8:18 AM IST
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Piyush Goyal meets German delegation, eyes deeper ties in AI, clean energy and manufacturing
Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal met ministers and business leaders from the German state of Hessen in New Delhi on Tuesday, as India looks to deepen economic and technology ties with Europe ahead of the implementation of its free trade agreement with the European Union.Goyal met Hessen Minister-President Boris Rhein and Minister for Federal and European Affairs, International Affairs and Debureaucratisation Manfred Pentz, along with a delegation of leading German businesses.The discussions explored opportunities for collaboration across artificial intelligence, clean energy, research and development, data centres, global capability centres (GCCs), pharmaceuticals, chemicals, manufacturing, fintech, deep-tech and skilling.Goyal said the engagement was aimed at tapping opportunities emerging from India’s free trade agreement with the EU to deepen partnerships in trade, technology, investment and innovation.Germany is the largest economy in the 27-member European Union and one of India’s key economic partners in the bloc.India and the EU have concluded negotiations on the trade agreement and are looking to sign the pact in 2026, with implementation targeted by the end of FY2026-27.What the India-EU FTA offersThe agreement is expected to significantly reduce tariffs on trade between the two economies.The EU expects the deal to double its goods exports to India by 2032. The agreement will eliminate or reduce tariffs on 96.6% of EU goods exports to India by value, with the EU estimating that European exporters could save around €4 billion annually in duties.Agricultural and food products are among the areas where tariffs will fall substantially. Indian tariffs on European wines are set to decline from 150% initially to 75% and eventually to levels as low as 20%. Tariffs of up to 50% on some processed agricultural products, including bread and confectionery, will also be removed.European companies will also receive greater access to India’s services market.The agreement currently comprises 21 chapters and covers 23 areas, according to the Commerce Ministry. These include goods, services, sanitary and phytosanitary measures, technical barriers to trade, intellectual property rights, sustainability, subsidies, MSMEs, rules of origin, anti-fraud measures and legal issues.The final number of chapters could change following legal scrubbing. Government procurement, energy and critical minerals do not currently have dedicated chapters.CBAM remains an important issueThe European Union’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) remains an important issue for Indian exporters.The Commerce Ministry had said in January that although India had not received a specific carve-out from CBAM under the FTA, any flexibility subsequently extended to another country would also be available to India to ensure equal treatment.A technical group is also expected to be established under the FTA to facilitate accreditation of Indian verifiers for assessing carbon footprints. Any carbon pricing or emissions-trading mechanism introduced by India in the future would also be factored into the CBAM framework.The EU will provide technical assistance to help reduce carbon emissions in India’s industrial sector, while the two sides are also expected to issue a joint statement on decarbonisation.The Commerce Ministry has said a non-violation clause will help protect India’s interests if future measures affect concessions granted under the trade agreement.Safeguards against dumpingConcerns over the potential routing or dumping of Chinese goods have also featured in discussions around the agreement.The Commerce Ministry has said both sides recognise each other’s sensitivities and that the pact contains bilateral safeguards and trade-remedy provisions to address dumping.The FTA also contains commitments relating to post-study work visas, in addition to existing arrangements, with no cap on student visas.Social security agreements, however, remain within the jurisdiction of individual EU member states. Thirteen of the EU’s 27 members have already concluded such agreements with India.Investment ties could deepen furtherIndia and the EU are separately negotiating a Bilateral Investment Treaty and an agreement covering geographical indications, with the Commerce Ministry saying discussions are progressing positively.Negotiations on investment liberalisation in non-services sectors are expected to continue for two years after the FTA comes into force.Investment ties between India and the EU are already substantial. India’s cumulative FDI outflows to the bloc stood at around $40.04 billion between April 2000 and March 2024, while cumulative EU FDI inflows into India reached about $117.4 billion between April 2000 and September 2024.More than 6,000 EU companies operate in India, while investment from the bloc accounted for over 16.5% of India’s cumulative FDI equity inflows from all countries.Goyal’s meeting with the Hessen delegation comes as both sides look to use the trade agreement to translate lower trade barriers into greater investment and collaboration in areas ranging from advanced manufacturing and clean energy to AI and deep-tech.
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Tamil Nadu seeks Centre’s nod for Chennai-Thiruvananthapuram industrial corridor, support for 7 parks
Tamil Nadu has urged the Centre to consider its proposal for a Chennai-Thiruvananthapuram industrial corridor and initiate the necessary feasibility and alignment studies. The proposed corridor could help strengthen industrial connectivity between major industrial centres and create opportunities for manufacturing, investment and employment.The state has also sought support for seven industrial park proposals submitted under the Bharat Audyogik Vikas Yojana (Bhavya).Industries, Investment Promotion and Commerce Minister S Keerthana raised the demands at the 3rd Apex Monitoring Authority meeting of the National Industrial Corridor Development and Implementation Trust (NICDIT) in New Delhi on Monday.The meeting was chaired by Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman, with Union Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal and senior officials from the Centre and Tamil Nadu in attendance.Tamil Nadu seeks feasibility study for new industrial corridorKeerthana urged the Centre to consider the proposed Chennai-Thiruvananthapuram corridor and begin the necessary feasibility and alignment studies. The proposed corridor is intended to improve industrial connectivity between major industrial centres and create opportunities for manufacturing, investment and employment.At the meeting, Sitharaman pointed out that the Chennai–Thoothukudi industrial corridor was first proposed in 2014, but said the proposal did not receive sufficient attention from successive Tamil Nadu governments despite follow-ups from the Centre.Keerthana said the state government would submit a formal representation to the Union ministers, Business Line reported citing sources in the State industries department.Centre signals support for 7 Bhavya industrial park proposalsTamil Nadu also sought Central support for seven proposals submitted in the first round of Bhavya, a Central sector scheme focused on developing investment-ready, plug-and-play industrial parks. Goyal said a significant number of the proposals could be considered, subject to meeting the prescribed Bhavya guidelines, eligibility criteria and other requirements.The Tamil Nadu government reiterated its commitment to work with the Centre to strengthen the state’s industrial ecosystem, improve inter-state connectivity and create an enabling environment for investment and employment.Industrial corridor projects already underway across IndiaThe Centre is developing a network of industrial corridors under the National Industrial Corridor Development Programme (NICDP), with projects spread across 11 corridors. According to a PIB report, published in February, four projects have been completed and four are nearing completion, while various other projects remain under implementation.The network includes corridors such as the Delhi-Mumbai Industrial Corridor, Chennai-Bengaluru Industrial Corridor, Vizag-Chennai Industrial Corridor, Bengaluru-Mumbai Industrial Corridor and Kochi-Bengaluru Industrial Corridor, among others.The Centre has also approved 12 additional projects under the National Industrial Corridor Development Programme, with a total project cost of ₹28,602 crore. These projects are being developed as manufacturing and investment hubs with plug-and-play infrastructure and are expected to create investment and employment opportunities.Tamil Nadu already features in this network through the Ponneri Industrial Area under the Chennai-Bengaluru Industrial Corridor and the Dharmapuri-Salem Industrial Area under the Extension of CBIC to Kochi via Coimbatore.
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India challenges US tariffs on quartz products at WTO, fourth such trade dispute
India has sought consultations with the United States at the World Trade Organization (WTO) over Washington’s tariff-rate quota on imports of quartz surface products, marking the fourth recent instance of New Delhi challenging US trade measures under the WTO’s safeguards framework.India has proposed that the consultations be held virtually at a mutually convenient time, according to its communication to the WTO.The latest move follows similar consultations sought by India over US measures affecting steel and aluminium, automobiles and auto components, and copper products.US imposes tariff-rate quota on quartz productsUS President Donald Trump on July 31 signed an order imposing a tariff-rate quota (TRQ) on imports of quartz surface products from several countries, including India, Spain, Thailand and Vietnam. The measure is slated to remain in place until August 2030.Under a tariff-rate quota, imports up to a specified quantity face one tariff rate, while shipments above that threshold attract a higher duty. In the case of quartz surface products, tariffs on imports exceeding the quota can rise to as much as 50%.The measure followed a determination by the US International Trade Commission that increased imports of quartz surface products were a substantial cause of serious injury to the domestic industry.India has significant exposure to the US market in this category, having exported around $700 million worth of quartz surface products to the country in FY26.Latest friction in India-US trade tiesThe quartz dispute adds to a growing list of trade issues between India and the US even as the two countries continue efforts to negotiate a trade agreement.The US has imposed a 10% tariff on imports from India and 59 other countries following a Section 301 investigation. Washington is also considering legislation that could impose tariffs of as much as 100% on countries that continue to import Russian crude oil.Trade tensions have also widened beyond tariffs.A White House report released on August 13 named India among countries allegedly being used to route Chinese goods into the US to avoid higher tariffs.The 25-page report, titled The Great Transshipment Scam: Rise, Scope, and Costs, was prepared by the White House Office of Trade and Manufacturing Policy, headed by Peter Navarro.It argues that Section 301 tariffs imposed on China since 2018 reduced direct Chinese exports to the US but also encouraged the development of what the report calls a “Shadow Transshipment Network.”According to the report, Chinese goods are allegedly being relabelled, repackaged, re-invoiced or subjected to limited processing in lower-tariff countries before being exported to the US under a different country of origin.The report cites estimates of annual transshipment or related exposure ranging from $40 billion, according to Goldman Sachs, to as much as $303 billion, according to supply-chain intelligence company Altana.India’s decision to seek WTO consultations over quartz products therefore adds another point of contention to an increasingly complicated trade relationship, even as New Delhi and Washington continue negotiations aimed at reaching a broader trade deal.
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