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Road contractor stocks could gain as highway project awards gather pace: Equirus
Road construction companies could be heading into a better phase after nearly two years of slow project awards, according to Vijay Agarwal, Managing Director & Sector Lead-Infrastructure at Equirus Capital.He believes the biggest bottleneck, land acquisition, is gradually being resolved, paving the way for faster bidding and execution of highway projects.
According to Agarwal, the government has changed the way it awards road contracts. Instead of floating tenders before land is available, it is now ensuring that most of the land is acquired before projects are bid out. As he puts it, “they are not giving any project, bidding out the project without land is acquired, substantial land is acquired.”
He added that projects are now being tendered only after more than 80% of the required land is available, allowing the remaining acquisition to be completed before construction begins.
This shift in policy, he believes, should help revive order inflows after a prolonged slowdown. “There were delays in last two years, and that is why you had seen less bids, and now this year you will see more bids,” Agarwal said, pointing to a stronger pipeline of highway projects.The funding outlook also appears supportive. Agarwal said the government plans to monetise operational road assets and use those proceeds to finance fresh highway construction through National Highways Authority of India (NHAI). As a result, he expects bidding activity to remain healthy, with road projects worth around ₹1.5 lakh crore likely to be awarded this year.
The improving order pipeline could also benefit listed NCC, many of which are trading at historically low valuations. Agarwal noted that “their P/E multiples have come down drastically. It’s like eight to 10 times of PE multiples,” adding that “if the order book and execution takes place, I think there is a good headroom to grow there. The stock price will grow.”
Watch the full conversation here
Among listed infrastructure companies, Agarwal highlighted several names that are well placed to benefit from the expected pickup in project awards. He said large diversified engineering, procurement, and construction (EPC) players such as KEC International, Larsen & Toubro, Kalpataru Projects International (L&T) and Kalpataru Projects International (KPIL) already have strong order books that provide long-term revenue visibility. He also noted that pure-play road contractors could see meaningful upside as fresh highway projects are awarded and execution gathers pace.
Catch all the latest updates from the stock market here
HDFC Bank share price to be in focus on Monday as lender reports strong Q1 business update: Here’s what the numbers say
एचडीएफसी बैंक Q1 बिजनेस अपडेट: निजी क्षेत्र के सबसे बड़े ऋणदाता द्वारा FY27 की अप्रैल-जून तिमाही (Q1FY27) के लिए मजबूत वित्तीय आंकड़ों का अनावरण करने के बाद, सोमवार, 6 जुलाई को एचडीएफसी बैंक के शेयर की कीमत फोकस में होगी।
ऋणदाता ने बताया कि उसकी सकल अग्रिम राशि साल-दर-साल (YoY) 15.4% बढ़ी है ₹30.61 लाख करोड़ से ₹पिछले वित्त वर्ष की इसी तिमाही में यह 26.53 लाख करोड़ रुपये था।
इस बीच, प्रबंधन के तहत बैंक की अवधि-अंत अग्रिम राशि लगभग स्थिर रही ₹30 जून, 2026 तक 31.27 लाख करोड़। इसका मतलब सालाना आधार पर लगभग 12.4% की वृद्धि है। ₹30 जून, 2025 तक प्रबंधन के तहत 27.82 लाख करोड़ रुपये की अग्रिम सूचना दी गई।
एचडीएफसी बैंक की Q1 जमा भी सालाना आधार पर 14.7% बढ़ी ₹FY27 की पहली तिमाही के अंत में 31.71 लाख करोड़ की तुलना में ₹FY26 की इसी तिमाही के अंत में 27.64 लाख करोड़ की सूचना दी गई।
निजी ऋणदाता की तिमाही-अंत CASA जमा राशि लगभग थी ₹30 जून, 2026 तक 10.26 लाख करोड़, जो लगभग 9.4% की वृद्धि दर्शाता है ₹30 जून, 2025 तक 9.37 लाख करोड़।
एचडीएफसी बैंक के शेयर की कीमत
एचडीएफसी बैंक के शेयरों में पिछले सप्ताह लगभग 1% और पिछले एक महीने में 6% से अधिक की वृद्धि हुई। यह 0.6% बढ़कर बंद हुआ ₹शुक्रवार को 801.05 प्रत्येक। हालाँकि, 2026 में अब तक बैंकिंग स्टॉक में 19% से अधिक की गिरावट आई है और पिछले तीन वर्षों में 7% की गिरावट आई है, जबकि पिछले पाँच वर्षों में 8% से अधिक का रिटर्न मिला है।
कंपनी का वर्तमान में बाजार पूंजीकरण इससे अधिक है ₹12.34 लाख करोड़.
नव गतिविधि
इस साल मार्च में एचडीएफसी बैंक के शेयरों में भारी बिकवाली देखी गई, जब इसके पूर्व अंशकालिक अध्यक्ष अतनु चक्रवर्ती ने यह कहते हुए इस्तीफा दे दिया कि बैंक के भीतर कुछ प्रथाएं उनके व्यक्तिगत मूल्यों और नैतिकता के अनुरूप नहीं थीं।
चक्रवर्ती ने अपने त्याग पत्र में लिखा, “बैंक के भीतर कुछ घटनाएं और प्रथाएं जो मैंने पिछले दो वर्षों में देखी हैं, वे मेरे व्यक्तिगत मूल्यों और नैतिकता के अनुरूप नहीं हैं। यह मेरे उपरोक्त निर्णय का आधार है।”
संपत्ति और बाजार पूंजीकरण दोनों के हिसाब से भारत के सबसे बड़े निजी ऋणदाता ने जिगर शाह को अपना जनरल काउंसिल भी नियुक्त किया है। वह वर्तमान में बल्ज-ब्रैकेट प्राइवेट इक्विटी फर्म केकेआर की स्थानीय सहायक कंपनी में प्रबंध निदेशक और अनुपालन प्रमुख हैं।
एचडीएफसी बैंक ने मार्च में चक्रवर्ती के अचानक बाहर निकलने के बाद एक महीने की लंबी खोज को पूरा करते हुए पूर्व आईएएस अधिकारी और भारत के पूर्व मुख्य चुनाव आयुक्त राजीव कुमार को अपना अंशकालिक (गैर-कार्यकारी) अध्यक्ष नियुक्त किया है।
पिछले सोमवार को, बैंक ने यह भी घोषणा की कि उसके बोर्ड ने 1 सितंबर से मुख्य वित्तीय अधिकारी-नामित (सीएफओ-नामित) के रूप में और 1 दिसंबर से मुख्य वित्तीय अधिकारी के रूप में पुनीत शर्मा की नियुक्ति को मंजूरी दे दी है।
अस्वीकरण: यह कहानी केवल शैक्षिक उद्देश्यों के लिए है। कृपया कोई भी निवेश निर्णय लेने से पहले किसी निवेश सलाहकार से परामर्श लें।
Donald Trump kicks off July Fourth festivities with Mount Rushmore speech, claims ‘US identity is under attack’
This comes six years after he addressed the nation from Mount Rushmore in 2020. The White House had earlier suggested that Trump could be an ‘addition’ to the iconic mountain where the faces of four presidents – George Washington, Thomas Jefferson and Theodore Roosevelt are etched.The Republican leader presented his remarks on a day that registered record-breaking heat and violent thunderstorms across parts of the country, as per USA Today.
Trump said that the US “will forever be the land of free men and women” and “will never fail.”
He called the United States “the most exceptional nation ever to exist in human history”, adding that “no other country has done more good for this world.”The 80-year-old emphasised the unique identity of the US, stressing on its culture of liberty. Trump stated that liberty prevailed in the US “because of the culture and character of the people who declared it, defended it and preserved it.”
He explained that passing on that character remains the main patriotic duty of every American.
Trump also used the speech to talk about what he called a fresh threat against the country’s identity. He took aim at domestic ‘radicals and extremists’ saying that American identity was ‘under a renewed attack.’
“A generation after we fought and won the Cold War against the menace of communism, there is now a resurgence of the communist menace in our land,” he added, as per AFP. The Republican president has applied the label to multiple Democrats running for election this year.
Trump directed several jibes at communism, calling it “a mortal threat to American liberty” similar to 9/11, “the enemy of July 4, 1776,” “the enemy of the Constitution” and “the enemy” in general.
“So, on the eve of this 250th anniversary of American heritage, we resolve and swear for all to hear that the citizens of the United States of America will vanquish communism quickly,” Trump said, according to NBC.
Trump highlighted that Americans love freedom more than anything else and promised on they were “going to give our country its identity back”
He added, “You do not have to be born here, but you do have to love what we have built, you must love our country.”
Trump also directed remarks towards the November 2026 midterms, claiming that Republicans would lose only if they allowed themselves to lose the elections by failing to pass the SAVE America Act, a major election bill.
Just before he ended his speech, Trump mentioned the US-Iran war, claiming that Tehran was ‘dying to settle’. He also alleged that the US gave Iran a week off for “a funeral because we are nice,” referring to the state funeral ceremony in honour of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was killed on February 28 in US-Israeli airstrikes.
At the end of his 30-minute speech, Trump promised that this was the start “of the golden age of America.”
Trump is using the 250th anniversary celebrations to rally political support for Republicans, and himself, ahead of midterm elections in November. His approval ratings are near historic lows, due to the US-Iran war and the high cost of living.
Bitcoin slides to lowest level in 21-months amid rate hike as US dollar strengthens
Bitcoin fell to a fresh 21-month low as the prospect of higher interest rates and concerns about the largest corporate buyer of the token weakened sentiment.Bitcoin dropped as much as 1.5% to $57,742 in Asian trading on Wednesday, its lowest level since Sept. 17, 2024, before steadying by 10 a.m. in Singapore.
Hawkish comments by US Federal Reserve policymakers are fuelling expectations for higher rates, encouraging capital away from assets like cryptocurrencies that don’t pay a yield. Investors pulled more than $4 billion from US-listed Bitcoin exchange-traded funds in June, the most since they launched two years ago.
Also Read: Bitcoin rallies to two-week high after US-Iran Hormuz dealBitcoin “has faced growing headwinds from shifting Fed rate expectations and a stronger US dollar,” said Tony Sycamore, an analyst at IG Australia. A US nonfarm payrolls report due later this week “has the potential to add further pressure if it reinforces a hawkish tilt from the Fed,” he said.
In addition, investors have reversed an initial vote of confidence in Michael Saylor’s financing overhaul at Strategy, raising fresh concerns that one of the biggest buyers of Bitcoin may no longer be a consistent source of demand.
While investors initially welcomed the prospect of stock buybacks and a larger cash reserve, the focus quickly shifted to Strategy’s newfound flexibility to sell Bitcoin and prioritise balance-sheet management over relentless accumulation.Also Read: How to invest in crypto through SIPs
Bitcoin has now fallen more than 50% from its record high above $126,000 in October last year and is below its 200-week moving average, a technical level that can signal a prolonged bear market.
At his first press conference as Fed chairman last month, Kevin Warsh made clear the central bank won’t tolerate high inflation, spurring expectations for higher rates and boosting the US dollar.
Other Fed officials have also recently indicated the possibility of tighter policy. Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Beth Hammack told CNBC Tuesday that the central bank may need to raise rates to bring inflation down to its 2% goal.
Also Read: Bitcoin miner and AI firm Ionic Digital files for Nasdaq direct listing
This move by Dixon Tech could create a large and high-margin opportunity, Investec says
Dixon Technologies (India) Ltd. is exploring acquisitions to enter the speciality electronics manufacturing services (EMS) segment, a move that could unlock a large, high-margin growth opportunity, according to brokerage firm Investec’s latest note on Wednesday, July 1.The brokerage maintained its “buy” rating on the stock, with a price target of ₹14,500, following a meeting with the company’s management. The price target implies a 22% upside from Tuesday’s closing price of ₹11,920.
According to Investec, Dixon’s move of evaluating acquisitions to enter the speciality EMS business could diversify its portfolio beyond the bread-and-butter businesses of consumer electronics and mobile manufacturing.
Also Read: VA Tech Wabag shares rise nearly 6% after winning ‘large’ order in Vienna
The brokerage also said that Dixon’s management remains confident of mobile phone volumes, excluding the proposed Vivo joint venture, remaining at least flat at around 33 million units in the current financial year.It added that the company continues to expect regulatory approval for its proposed Vivo joint venture soon. Once operational, the venture is expected to add more than 20 million units of annual mobile phone volumes.
CNBC-TV18 had reported on Tuesday, citing sources with knowledge of the matter, that the Dixon-Vivo JV is inching closer to a final government approval, having been cleared by the inter-ministerial panel earlier this month.
Highlighting that mobile phone exports are likely to pick up in the current financial year and contribute an additional 4-5 million units, the management said that it expects a significant increase in exports starting in the financial year 2028, supported by the second phase of the Production Linked Incentive (PLI) scheme.
Beyond smartphones, Investec said Dixon’s IT hardware and telecom businesses remain on a strong growth trajectory. It expects ongoing backward integration initiatives to support margin expansion from FY28 onwards.
Shares of Dixon Technologies are trading little changed on Wednesday at ₹11,941. The stock has risen 4% so far in the last one month.
Income Tax: Can you claim bad debt deduction during recovery? ITAT explains
एक व्यवसाय खराब ऋण के लिए कटौती का दावा कर सकता है, भले ही धन की वसूली के प्रयास अभी भी चल रहे हों, अहमदाबाद पीठ ने कहा इनकम टैक्स अपीलेट ट्रिब्यूनल (ITAT) ने फैसला सुनाया है.
30 जून, 2026 को सुनाए गए एक आदेश में, ट्रिब्यूनल ने अहमदाबाद स्थित कमोडिटी ट्रेडिंग फर्म हेमंत ब्रदर्स को कटौती का दावा करने की अनुमति दी। ₹नेशनल स्पॉट एक्सचेंज लिमिटेड (एनएसईएल) भुगतान संकट से उत्पन्न 2.69 करोड़। यह माना गया कि एक बार खाते की किताबों में ऋण माफ कर दिया गया है और आयकर अधिनियम के तहत निर्धारित शर्तें पूरी हो गई हैं, तो कटौती से इनकार नहीं किया जा सकता है क्योंकि वसूली कार्यवाही लंबित है।
क्या था विवाद?
आकलन वर्ष (AY) 2014-15 के लिए, हेमंत ब्रदर्स ने कटौती का दावा किया ₹एनएसईएल पर कमोडिटी लेनदेन से उत्पन्न बकाया राशि को बट्टे खाते में डालने के बाद आयकर अधिनियम की धारा 36(1)(vii) के तहत 2.69 करोड़ रु. लाभ और हानि खाते को डेबिट करके राशि को बट्टे खाते में डाल दिया गया था।
फर्म का मूल मूल्यांकन दिसंबर 2016 में पूरा हो गया था। हालांकि, धारा 263 के तहत संशोधन कार्यवाही के बाद, मूल्यांकन अधिकारी (एओ) ने कटौती की अनुमति नहीं देते हुए दिसंबर 2019 में एक नया मूल्यांकन आदेश पारित किया। आयकर आयुक्त (अपील) ने भी अस्वीकृति को बरकरार रखा, जिससे करदाता को आईटीएटी से संपर्क करने के लिए प्रेरित किया गया।
यह भी पढ़ें | व्यापारी को नोटबंदी से नकदी पर ₹21 लाख की कर मांग मिली, आईटीएटी में जीत
टैक्स विभाग ने दावा क्यों खारिज कर दिया?
एओ ने सवाल किया कि क्या कमोडिटी लेनदेन में वास्तविक डिलीवरी शामिल थी और यह माना गया कि खराब ऋण का दावा समय से पहले था क्योंकि एनएसईएल डिफ़ॉल्ट से संबंधित वसूली कार्यवाही अभी भी लंबित थी। विभाग के अनुसार, उन कार्यवाहियों के समाप्त होने तक ऋण को अपूरणीय नहीं माना जा सकता। अपीलीय प्राधिकारी इस दृष्टिकोण से सहमत थे।
ITAT ने क्या दिया नियम?
ट्रिब्यूनल इससे असहमत था टैक्स विभाग का तर्क.
यह देखा गया कि करदाता ने लेनदेन की वास्तविकता स्थापित करने के लिए अनुबंध नोट, ब्रोकर पुष्टिकरण, डिलीवरी रिपोर्ट और खाता खाता पुष्टिकरण प्रस्तुत किया था। राजस्व ने यह दिखाने के लिए कोई सबूत पेश नहीं किया कि ये दस्तावेज़ अविश्वसनीय थे।
इससे भी महत्वपूर्ण बात यह है कि आईटीएटी ने माना कि वसूली कार्यवाही का लंबित होना खराब ऋण कटौती से इनकार करने का एकमात्र कारण नहीं हो सकता है। यह नोट किया गया कि राजस्व ने धारा 36(1)(vii) के अनुपालन पर विवाद नहीं किया था, और लाभ और हानि खाते को डेबिट करके ऋण पहले ही किताबों में लिखा जा चुका था। तदनुसार, निर्धारिती कटौती का हकदार था।
ट्रिब्यूनल ने टीआरएफ लिमिटेड बनाम सीआईटी और सीबीडीटी सर्कुलर नंबर 12/2016 में सुप्रीम कोर्ट के फैसले पर भरोसा किया, जो स्पष्ट करता है कि आयकर अधिनियम में 1989 के संशोधन के बाद, करदाताओं को यह साबित करने की आवश्यकता नहीं है कि ऋण वास्तव में वसूली योग्य नहीं हो गया है। यदि खाते की पुस्तकों में ऋण माफ कर दिया गया है और धारा 36(2) के तहत शर्तें पूरी की गई हैं तो कटौती उपलब्ध है।
धारा 28 के तहत वैकल्पिक राहत
आईटीएटी ने करदाता के वैकल्पिक दावे को भी स्वीकार कर लिया कि यह राशि आयकर अधिनियम की धारा 28 के तहत व्यापार हानि के रूप में कटौती योग्य थी।
यह भी पढ़ें | क्या आईटी विभाग संपत्ति के लिए कथित नकद भुगतान पर कर बढ़ा सकता है? आईटीएटी स्पष्ट करता है
एनएसईएल संकट से होने वाले घाटे से जुड़े ट्रिब्यूनल के पहले के फैसलों पर भरोसा करते हुए, बेंच ने कहा कि ऐसा कोई आरोप नहीं है कि हेमंत ब्रदर्स घोटाले में शामिल थे। इसलिए यह माना गया कि यह हानि व्यवसाय के सामान्य क्रम में उत्पन्न हुई थी और यह व्यावसायिक हानि के रूप में भी स्वीकार्य थी।
फैसले का क्या मतलब है?
फैसले में दोहराया गया है कि व्यवसायों को खराब ऋण कटौती का दावा करने से पहले वसूली कार्यवाही समाप्त होने की प्रतीक्षा करने की आवश्यकता नहीं है। यदि खाते की पुस्तकों में वास्तविक व्यावसायिक ऋण को माफ कर दिया गया है और धारा 36(1)(vii) और 36(2) के तहत शर्तें पूरी की गई हैं, तो कटौती से केवल इसलिए इनकार नहीं किया जा सकता है क्योंकि कानूनी कार्यवाही जारी है।
ट्रिब्यूनल ने यह भी कहा कि यदि खराब ऋण के रूप में बट्टे खाते में डाली गई कोई भी राशि बाद के वर्ष में वसूल की जाती है, तो उस पर आयकर अधिनियम के प्रावधानों के तहत वसूली के वर्ष में कर लगाया जा सकता है।
Iran starts Khamenei’s public funeral ceremony, as per reports
US President Donald Trump said Iran wants to ‘settle’ and Washington has given Tehran a ‘weeks off’ for its former Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s funeral.
Iran has officially started the public funeral of its former Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, as per local media reports.Tehran is expecting over 20 million people to gather for the same.
Iran has also said that the US has issued directives to all its embassies across the world to pressure countries from attending Khamenei’s funeral, as per reports. The US would consider the same as an “unfriendly act” with “negative consequences for bilateral relations” as per reports.
US ambassadors in Africa have allegedly threatened to halt all development aid to the participating countries, while US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has personally called counterparts in at least five Arab countries, the reports added.
Around 13 countries have declined to attend Khamenei’s funeral.
Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump said Iran wants to ‘settle’ and Washington has given Tehran a week’s off for the funeral.
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How to improve your credit score from 600 to 750 with smart financial habits and better credit management
A credit score is like a financial report card. It is a three-digit number issued by leading credit bureaus in the country. This is a number that can improve your chances of securing personal loans, home loans, credit cards, and other forms of debt at lower interest rates and flexible terms.
A high credit score can also strengthen your credit profile and boost your creditworthiness. Now, it is a given that moving from a credit score of 600 to 750 may seem a little challenging; still, experts suggest it is achievable through dedicated financial management and disciplined credit habits. There are no shortcuts to achieving such progress.
Subhankar Mishra, Interim MD for Equifax Credit Information, explained this concept in detail, stating, “Elevating your score from 600 to 750 requires active credit management. Accelerate this by ensuring timely repayments, keeping utilisation prudent, and maintaining a healthy balance of secured and unsecured credit lines. Avoid rapidly accumulating multiple credit lines, let older accounts mature, and crucially, scrutinise credit reports for demographic errors that might mistakenly tag another person’s liabilities to your profile.”
Also Read | Improve payment history: 5 tips to build a stronger credit score
Anup Agarwal, Co-founder of Kiwi, further added to this, stating, “A good credit score isn’t built overnight, it’s earned through consistent habits, not quick fixes. Pay your credit bills in full, every time. Use less of your credit limit than you’re given. And don’t apply for too many cards too quickly. Do this consistently, and your score as well as your access to better credit will take care of itself.”
Keeping these core aspects of meaningful debt management in mind, here are five smart ways to boost your credit score:
5 smart ways to build a strong credit score
1. Pay on time, every time: Your repayment history has the biggest impact on your credit score. Always pay EMIs and credit card bills on time to build a strong credit profile.
2. Keep credit utilisation low: Make sure that you never use more than 30% of your available credit limit. The lower the utilisation, the better. Low utilisation reflects responsible borrowing and helps keep the credit score steady.
3. Maintain a balanced credit mix: A healthy mix of secured and unsecured credit demonstrates your ability to manage different forms of debt properly. This means trying to repay your borrowed funds through credit cards, personal loans, and home loans without delay and demonstrating effective management of all forms of debt.
4. Avoid multiple credit applications: Ensure that you do not project yourself as ‘credit hungry’; this can be projected if you send frequent loan or credit card applications. Such behaviour can trigger hard inquiries, which can lower your credit score. Apply for a new loan or credit card only when absolutely necessary.
5. Review your credit report regularly: Check your credit report for any mistakes, omissions, errorsoutdated information, or incorrect liabilities. Promptly correcting inaccuracies can help protect your credit score.
In summary, credit scores in the country are provided by prominent credit bureaus such as TransUnion CIBIL, Equifax, Experian and CRIF High Mark. Now, improving your credit score from 600 to 750 isn’t something that can be achieved in a very short period of time. It is a gradual process that demands patience.
Also Read | Can an overdraft hurt your credit score? Here’s what borrowers need to know
By making on-time payments, utilising credit responsiblylimiting unnecessary borrowing and keeping a close watch on your credit report, you can steadily build a reputable financial profile. This is the best possible way to improve your credit score from 600 to 750 or even higher.
China manufacturing PMI hits strongest quarter since 2020 as RatingDog index shows resilient factory growth despite fragile wider economy
China’s manufacturing section recorded its strongest quarterly performance since late 2020, although growth eases marginally in June, indicating that factory activity remains resilient even as broader economic conditions remain fragile.The RatingDog China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) edged down to 51.7 in June to 51.8 in May. While the reading fell short of market expectations, the average PMI for April-June quarter stood at 51.9, the highest since the fourth quarter of 2020.
A PMI reading above 50 indicates an expansion in manufacturing activity from the previous month.
“The manufacturing sector maintained a steady expansion in June, supported by sustained new order growth, easing cost pressures and improved labour market conditions,” Yao Yu, founder of RatingDog, said in a statement.
Exports and AI continue to support factory activity
New orders rose for a 13th consecutive month, matching the longest streak recorded in 2021 and the strongest run since 2018. At the same time, input-cost inflation eased to a five-month low, reducing cost pressures for manufacturers.Despite the improvement in factory activity, economists cautioned that manufacturing strength may not be sufficient to offset weakness in the wider economy. Retail sales and investment both declined in May at rates not seen since the pandemic, raising concerns over economic momentum in the second quarter.
Julian Evans-Pritchard, Head of China economics at Capital Economics, said the recent improvement in manufacturing “has been heavily dependent on exports and AI-related tech.”
The private RatingDog survey has generally indicated stronger manufacturing conditions than China’s official PMI over the past year, reflecting the resilience of exports. The survey is considered to be more representative of smaller and export-oriented manufacturers.
Henry Hao, senior economist at Commerzbank AG in Singapore, said the divergence between the private and official surveys points to “a two-speed manufacturing activity”.
“Strategic tech sectors are booming, but traditional exporters are feeling the pinch from cooling global demand amid the conflict in the Middle East,” Hao said.
Trade risks remain
China’s reliance on exports and AI-related manufacturing faces growing external risks as major trading partners consider measures to address trade imbalances.
The United States has maintained elevated tariffs on Chinese goods, despite an improvement in bilateral ties following a meeting in May between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping. The tariffs continue to weigh on Chinese exports to the US market.
Trade tensions with the European Union also remain unresolved. On Monday, the two sides agreed to work towards progress on trade disputes by October, following talks in Brussels between EU Trade Commissioner Maroš Šefčovič and Chinese Commerce Minister Wang Wentao.
Elsewhere in Asia, manufacturing activity remained in expansion territory across several economies. Taiwan recorded a PMI of 55.2 in June, South Korea posted 52.1, while Japan’s reading rose to 54.8. Indonesia was the exception, with its PMI falling to a one-year low of 46.9 as higher inflation increased manufacturing costs and weakened consumer demand.