The buoyant mood from tariff deals is running out of steam as investors turn their focus to a raft of key data from jobs to inflation and economic activity. The big event comes Wednesday, when the Federal Reserve is expected to keep rates unchanged. Then there’s a string of big-tech earnings, with four megacaps worth a combined $11.3 trillion reporting results.
“The focus moves squarely onto US data this week and the Fed to a lesser extent,” said Nick Twidale, chief analyst at ATFX Global Markets. “Now that we are getting clarity on tariffs, we may see adjustments – probably downside – as analysts look at what implementation will mean for various jurisdictions.”European capitals defended the trade deal struck with Trump while industry officials in Germany warned that the deal leaves the auto industry exposed and will make companies in Europe less competitive. Dutch minister for foreign trade said the deal was “not ideal” and called on the commission to continue negotiations with the US.
Stocks in Europe fell. The euro was little changed Tuesday after sliding the most in over two months.
Meanwhile, US and Chinese officials finished the first of two days of talks aimed at extending their tariff truce beyond a mid-August deadline and hashing out ways to maintain trade ties while safeguarding economic security.
“Whether we agree or not with the use of tariffs and the deals announced, we are getting the big ones out of the way, which will allow American businesses to adjust and plan, for better or worse,” said Peter Boockvar at the Boock Report. “And we can now focus on how this all plays out.”The key for markets this week is a rate decision by the Fed. The Bank of Japan is also meeting later this week for its policy decision.
Chair Jerome Powell and his colleagues will step into the central bank’s board room for a two-day meeting starting Tuesday to deliberate on rates at a time of immense political pressure, evolving trade policy, and economic cross-currents.
In a rare occurrence, policymakers will convene in the same week that the government issues reports on gross domestic product, employment and the Fed’s preferred price metrics. Forecasters anticipate the heavy dose of data will show economic activity rebounded in the second quarter.
“This is about as busy as a week can get in the markets,” said Chris Larkin at E*Trade from Morgan Stanley. “This week could make or break that momentum in the near term.”
Elsewhere in Asia, Trump said he had asked US officials to resume trade negotiations with Cambodia and Thailand after the countries agreed to halt fighting along a disputed border.
In Japan, Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba is fighting to stay in power, and insisted he would stay on after some ruling party lawmakers stepped up their calls for his resignation following last week’s historic election setback.
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