Axis Capital says H-1B risk is limited, prefers Infosys, Wipro, Mphasis, Hexaware

Manik Taneja, Executive Director for IT Services & Internet at Axis Capital, said Indian IT firms have steadily reduced their reliance on the H-1B visa programme over the past few years.He noted that between the fiscal year 2015-16 (FY16) and 2016-17 (FY17), the top five IT companies together received 40,000–45,000 visas annually. In the most recent financial year, that number has dropped to below 12,000. “From almost 11–12% of total approvals, the share of the top five companies is now less than 5%,” he said.

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According to Taneja, this decline reflects a shift toward hiring more local staff, sponsoring green cards for employees, and expanding operations in Canada and Mexico. He added that the H-1B risk is “a fairly manageable one, especially after recent policy clarity.
On company-specific impact, Taneja estimated that Tech Mahindra could see an earnings hit of a little over 4% if current visa numbers are maintained, compared with a 1.5–2% impact for most tier-one IT companies. He said Tech Mahindra had about 957 H-1B approvals in the past year, while Persistent Systems had close to 192. For Persistent, this could mean a 7–8% EBITDA impact in the fiscal year 2024-25 (FY25), though he stressed this depends on whether firms keep applying for the same number of visas.Also Read | Banking, consumption, and defence to drive index ahead, says Trust MF’s Mihir Vora

Beyond visas, he pointed out that the sector faces slowing growth as it matures, with concerns about how the fiscal year 2026-27 (FY27) will play out. Axis Capital remains selective in its picks, preferring Infosys and Wipro among tier-one firms, Mphasis and Hexaware Technologies among tier-two, and Firstsource Solutions and Sagility India in the BPO space.

For the full interview, watch the accompanying video

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