Tuesday, June 24, 2025

Budget 2025: The most important stock to watch

Date:

ITC Ltd. will be the most important stock to watch out for ahead of Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman’s Union Budget speech on Saturday, February 1.

Company Value Change %Change

The cigarettes-to-hotels conglomerate remains in focus as there is expectations of a hike in excise on cigarettes. The expectations are higher because there has not been a hike in cigarettes in the last three years.

Analysts believe that if the potential hike in excise on cigarettes is in excess of 10%, it will be a negative for the stock price.

Currently the excise duty on cigarettes up to 65 mm in length is ₹5 per 1,000 stocks, which goes up to filter cigarettes between 70 mm and 75 mm as well. There is also a national calamity contingent duty (NCCD), which is in force since 2023 and ranges from ₹230 to ₹850 per 1,000 sticks.
Starting 2017, shares of ITC have seen intraday movement ranging from 2% to as high as 10% on the day of the Union Budget.

Budget Day During ITC Intraday Move
2024 1.4%
2023 9%
2022 4.5%
2021 8%
2020 10%
2019 2%
2018 8%
2017 5%

ITC shares have been in focus recently post the demerger of its hotels business, shares of which began trading on the bourses.Out of the 40 analysts that have coverage on ITC, 34 of them have a “buy” rating on the stock, four of them say “hold” and two have a “sell” rating on the stock.

Consensus is projecting a potential upside of 16.2% on the stock.

Shares of ITC Ltd. are trading 1.2% higher at ₹441.35 ahead of the budget announcement.

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