China’s manufacturing activity improved at the fastest pace in four months, according to a private survey, a surprising show of resilience that will be tested as Donald Trump prepares to raise tariffs further on exports into the US.The Caixin manufacturing purchasing managers index rose to 51.2 in March from 50.8 in February, according to a statement released by Caixin and S&P Global on Tuesday. While any reading above 50 indicates an expansion of activity, the figure was a positive surprise compared with the median forecast of 50.6.
“Supply and demand kept expanding, and export growth continued,” Wang Zhe, senior economist at Caixin Insight Group, said in a statement accompanying the release. “The job market remained relatively sluggish, and deflationary pressures persisted, due to insufficient effective demand at home and market participants’ weak optimism.”
The results were more upbeat than the findings in an official survey released Monday that showed manufacturing expanded at the fastest pace in a year. The two polls cover different sample sizes, locations and business types.The private survey, which focuses on small and export-oriented firms, offers a clearer picture of how the economy is faring since the US president’s imposition of levies totaling 20% on Chinese shipments after his second term started in January. The Caixin results have been largely stronger than those from the official poll over the previous year as exports stayed brisk.
“Supply and demand kept expanding, and export growth continued,” Wang Zhe, senior economist at Caixin Insight Group, said in a statement accompanying the release. “The job market remained relatively sluggish, and deflationary pressures persisted, due to insufficient effective demand at home and market participants’ weak optimism.”
The results were more upbeat than the findings in an official survey released Monday that showed manufacturing expanded at the fastest pace in a year. The two polls cover different sample sizes, locations and business types.The private survey, which focuses on small and export-oriented firms, offers a clearer picture of how the economy is faring since the US president’s imposition of levies totaling 20% on Chinese shipments after his second term started in January. The Caixin results have been largely stronger than those from the official poll over the previous year as exports stayed brisk.
The Trump administration is set to press ahead with reciprocal tariffs on April 2, and China has warned Washington it will retaliate if the US goes ahead. The US is also set to complete a review this week of Beijing’s compliance with the so-called Phase One trade deal struck during Trump’s first term.
New export sales increased at the fastest pace in nearly a year, prompting Chinese manufacturers to lift employment and raise production, according to the Caixin report.
But while sentiment in the industry was positive in March, optimism weakened further below the series average as some producers “noted rising uncertainties with additional trade barriers around the world,” it said.
