Imports rose 1.1% for their first growth since February, resulting in a trade surplus of $115 billion last month, according to data from the General Administration of Customs on Monday.
China’s booming exports have been a key driver of the economy in the first half of 2025, giving companies a boost as domestic demand remains weak. But that support might fade in the second half if global trade tensions start to escalate.“China’s trade resisted pressure and progressed in the first half of the year,” Wang Lingjun, deputy head of the customs agency, said at a press briefing. “But we also need to see that unilateralism and protectionism are on the rise globally, and the external environment is becoming more complex, grim and uncertain.”
The Trump administration last week announced a raft of new levies on trading partners, declaring those tariffs will take effect on Aug. 1. It also unveiled a 50% tariff on copper imports and signalled more sectoral levies are in the works.
US tariffs on Chinese goods have been cut back to around 55%, down from as high as 145% in early April. That has helped narrow the decline in China’s exports to the US, according to Wang.
Still, Beijing faces mounting risks from Washington’s evolving trade strategy.
A new agreement with Vietnam, for instance, includes a 20% tariff on Vietnamese exports to the US and a steeper 40% duty on goods deemed to be transshipped, targeting a workaround Chinese exporters have long used to evade American tariffs. The move could curb demand for Chinese products headed directly to the US as well as for components used in supply chains across other countries.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said he expected to meet with his Chinese counterpart in the coming weeks to continue discussions.
“It seems the front loading of exports to the US has not ended,” said Zhiwei Zhang, chief economist at Pinpoint Asset Management. “The strong exports help to partly offset the weak domestic demand and likely keep GDP growth around the government target of 5% in the second quarter.”
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