The growth in exports will continue to support the economy, with the record trade surplus of almost half a trillion dollars so far in 2025 a boost to companies facing weak demand at home. In the second half of the year, however, China could face a drag on growth should risks to global trade materialize.
The US is threatening to raise tariffs on many countries from early July and on China from August. That could slash demand for Chinese products destined directly for the US and also used as inputs into other nations’ manufactured goods.Even if China and other nations are able to strike a deal with the Trump administration, demand from the US and elsewhere might still weaken as companies slow down their frantic purchasing aimed at beating the tariffs.
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