Sunday, October 12, 2025

CLSA sees Nifty at 26,300 by year-end; gold may hit $4,100, silver $50 before pause

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Gold and silver may see short-term gains followed by consolidation, while Indian equities continue to hold a positive long-term trend, says Laurence Balanco, Technical Analyst at CLSA.On gold, Balanco said the metal’s recent rally has reached a 20% premium to its 200-day moving average, a level that has historically triggered a short-term surge followed by a correction. “We still think we can push towards that $4,100 per ounce area,” he said, adding that traders could “take some profits and look for a consolidation pattern to develop.” CLSA’s target range for gold remains between $4,000 and $4,100 per ounce.

On silver, Balanco described it as “a bit of a catch-up trade,” noting that prices approaching $50 per ounce – last seen in 2011 – could see some hesitation. “This is not the time to be adding new positions,” he said. “It’s time to manage some risk and look for a digestion and consolidation phase before a new breakout.” Over the long term, CLSA expects both metals to reach new all-time highs once the consolidation phase is complete.

Also Read | IPO frenzy brings selectivity, says Nilesh Shah of Kotak Mahindra AMCDiscussing the Nifty 50, Balanco said the index continues to hold firm around key support levels. “The positive is that we keep on respecting that 24,000 area,” he said, highlighting that this range also includes the 200-day moving average and the February–April double-bottom pattern. He believes the Nifty could move toward 26,300 by year-end, supported by strong seasonality and global market trends.

He added that the long-term bullish setup remains intact. “Once we ultimately break through that 26,300 area, we’re still looking at 37,000 to 40,000 on the longer-term bull market scenario,” he said, projecting that such levels could be reached by 2029–2030.

Balanco noted that banks, autos, and metals are providing support to the market. “Autos and metals are two key sectors where we have strong momentum,” he said, adding that stability in banks has “given the foundation for the market to work its way toward that 26,300 area.” He also pointed out potential rotation into lagging stocks such as Bajaj Auto, while metals like aluminium could see further upside if prices break above the ₹2,670 mark.Also Read | AI impact on IT sector still unfolding, says DSP Mutual Fund’s Vinit Sambre

On the US dollar, Balanco said the break below the 99-100 range confirms a “major market top” after a 14-year bull run. He expects another 9-10% downside in the dollar index, toward the 89-90 area, calling it “positive for emerging markets.”

Regarding Brent crude, Balanco sees a trading range between $58 and $71 per barrel, with $70 now acting as resistance after being a support level earlier.

On the US markets, he said the S&P 500 remains in an uptrend as long as it holds above the 50-day moving average. “As long as we stay above the 50-day, we think this uptrend in the S&P is intact and we should give the benefit of the doubt to the upside,” Balanco said.

For the full interview, watch the accompanying video

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