Citi
Brokerage firm Citi has a ‘neutral’ rating on the stock and has raised its target price to ₹430 apiece from ₹415 per share.
It expects high LNG prices, on the back of a possible supply shortage due to the Israel-US-Iran war in the Middle East, to prompt the switch from gas to coal.Citi said there is high correlation between thermal coal and natural gas prices.
A spike in international coal prices should be positive for Coal India’s e-auction prices, it said.
Citi has estimated a ₹100 per tonne change in e-auction prices impacting earnings by share (EPS) by 2%.
Axis Capital
Axis Capital has upgraded its rating on Coal India to “add” from “reduce” on rising international coal prices, declining Indonesian exports and prospects of better volumes.
It has a price target of ₹480 per share on the stock.
Axis Capital has estimated Coal India’s profit after tax (PAT) for financial year 2027-2028 to increase between 8% – 11%. It has also built in higher e-auction premium of 65% from the estimated 58% for the current financial year.
In the base case, it has not included the US-Iran conflict impact. However, if the e-auction premium hits 100%, Coal India’s EBITDA can rise 12% and that would result in its price target revised to ₹540 per share.
Of the 25 analysts who have coverage on Coal India, 12 have a “buy” rating, eight have a “hold” rating and five have a “sell” rating.
Why the stock is up
Expectations of higher coal prices due to the disruption in oil and gas supply, on the back of the US-Israel-Iran war in the Middle East, is one of the main reasons for the surge in Coal India’s shares.
In the third quarter, the e-auction price premium over linkage coal was 62%, while in the first quarter of FY25 it was 58% and in FY23 it was 228%.
Hopes of a rebound in power demand is another reason for the rise in Coal India’s shares. In the first 10 months of FY26, power demand increased 1% compared to the previous year. However, from December 2025 to January 2026, it increased between 5% – 6% from the year-ago period.
Brokerage firm Jefferies expects volume growth to improve to 5% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) over FY26-28.
Lastly, the shares also have valuation support. The stock trades at approximately 8 times its estimated FY27 earnings per share and has a dividend yield of 7%.
Recent operational update
Coal India’s production in February 2026 increased 0.7% to 74.7 MT from 74.1 MT from the same month of the previous year. For the 11 months of FY26, its production declined 1.7% to 683.7 MT from 695.3 MT in the same period of the previous fiscal.
Coal India’s dispatches in February 2026 declined 1.5% to 62 MT from 62.9 MT in the previous year. Meanwhile, dispatches for the 11 months of FY26 declined 2.8% from 674.6 MT from 694.1 MT.
The company was allocated 10.3 MT in the e-auction in February 2026. It reported a 35% rise over the notified price.
Coal India shares were up 4.1% at ₹452.9 apiece around 10.55 am on Thursday. The stock has gained 15.3% in the last six months.
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