“We’ll make a deal on, I think, everything,” Trump told reporters this week.
Trump has also floated an elusive agreement on nuclear weapons and expressed a desire to convince Xi to pressure Russian President Vladimir Putin to end his invasion of Ukraine, an outcome that would burnish Trump’s peacemaking credentials on the heels of the ceasefire between Israel and Hamas.Yet Trump’s pursuit of deals often emphasizes style over substance, and analysts expect any agreement reached at their South Korea summit would simply dial down tensions following weeks of escalating threats, trade retaliation and harsh rhetoric — far from a sweeping accord that addresses core conflicts. The US president departs Friday for a three-nation tour of Asia.
“Both sides are clearly seeking stability in the relationship,” said Henrietta Levin, a former White House China adviser now at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “But stability on whose terms is an open question, and one where I think unfortunately Beijing is holding the cards.”
Trump’s thirst for a result he can sell as a victory runs the risk he might bow to key Chinese demands, including access to advanced semiconductors and the status of the self-governing island of Taiwan — the president notably has not ruled out such compromises.
Still, it’s improbable the US leader will concede much ground on those points, given the national-security and domestic-political pitfalls. That diminishes the chances of a grand bargain that would assure markets a trade war won’t materialize. The two nations’ current tariff understanding is expiring in November.
Trump’s negotiating style is also fundamentally different than Xi’s. While the US president often takes a transactional approach, using leverage to secure short-term wins, the Chinese leader relies on long-term thinking buttressed by his country’s manufacturing and natural-resources advantages.
Trump has insisted China must back down from severe export curbs that underscore Beijing’s leverage as the world’s dominant supplier and processor of rare-earth materials used in mobile phones, semiconductors and other technology.
But Xi sees its rare-earth dominance as a critical strategic advantage, making it doubtful he would back down without major compromises from the US.
China’s leverage isn’t “a simple bargaining chip,” which makes it nearly impossible for Beijing to yield to Trump’s demands, said Sun Chenghao, a fellow at the Center for International Security and Strategy at Tsinghua University. “Reversing such a policy would require a monumental concession from the US, likely involving a rollback of its own tech sanctions, which is currently politically untenable in Washington,” he added.
Indeed, Washington is weighing moves in the other direction — intensifying restrictions on exports of equipment containing American software to China, with curbs that could ensnare sales of computers, engines and other goods.The developments have heightened risks for economies throughout Asia – including those that have also been targeted by Trump’s tariffs, despite being seen as important US allies in corralling China’s rise. Trump is set to swing through three of them — Malaysia, Japan and South Korea — in the coming days.
Some China hawks in Washington worry that Trump’s penchant for dealmaking, and his desire to secure purchase commitments and other trade victories, could drive once politically unthinkable national-security concessions, including a departure from the longstanding US policy of strategic ambiguity toward Taiwan.
China has asked the White House to officially declare it “opposes” Taiwanese independence, and Trump has acknowledged the island is likely to be on the table in the coming talks. Taiwan probably is “the apple of his eye,” Trump said of Xi earlier this week.
“President Trump doesn’t have conventional views on Taiwan and has been notably more lukewarm in his support for Taiwan, especially compared to his predecessors,” said Patricia Kim, who co-leads the Global China Project at the Brookings Institution, adding that it’s possible Beijing could “see this as an area where it could push Trump to cut a deal, or to be transactional if Trump could get something in return.”
Both sides dispute what kicked off the latest escalation. Americans allege it was China’s expansive new export curbs. Beijing, meanwhile, argues Washington reneged on a promise by expanding sanctions to include subsidiaries of blacklisted companies.
What’s followed has been a flurry of widened punishments and new trade threats. China sanctioned American units of South Korean shipping giant Hanwha Ocean Co. for allegedly assisting a US trade investigation into Beijing’s maritime might. Trump raised the specter of slapping an additional 100% tariff on Chinese goods by Nov. 1 and curbing imports of used cooking oil from China.
The trade fight is testing both countries’ tolerance for economic pain. Tariffs have hiked prices of US consumer goods and impinged on China’s access to its largest single export market. Trump conceded last week his threatened tariffs were “not sustainable.”
Still, Trump has economic leverage because China needs the US market more, argued Steve Yates, a senior research fellow with the Heritage Foundation. “They may have overestimated their tolerance for pain and disruption,” he said.
Though the focus of Trump’s trip has remained centered on his Xi meeting, other trade negotiations hang in the balance with South Korea, India and Brazil. Even the terms of a $550 billion investment fund Japan committed in a successful bid to lower tariffs haven’t been honed – presenting a potential test for the country’s new prime minister, Sanae Takaichi.
Similarly, it’s unclear whether Trump and South Korea’s new president, Lee Jae Myung, will finalize a broad trade framework, which included a pledge to invest $350 billion in the US. No trade agreements are expected to be signed with Vietnam, Indonesia and the Philippines, according to people familiar with the matter, who asked not to be identified to freely discuss the deliberations.
Trump may meet with Brazil’s Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, whose country was targeted with 50% tariffs on goods shipped to the US, and seal a truce in a long-running border dispute between Thailand and Cambodia with a ceremony at the Association of Southeast Asian Nations summit in Kuala Lumpur.
William Chou, a Japan analyst at the Hudson Institute, said shoring up agreements with US partners would strengthen Trump’s hand with Xi.
“If the aim is still to try and strike an effective deal with Beijing,” he said, “you might as well strengthen your leverage as best you can.”
