New Delhi: The Economic Survey – a critique of the economy’s performance and its management scripted by a team in the finance ministry – offers the Chief Economic Advisor V Anantha Nageswaran an opportunity to propose novel ideas and solutions to the challenges confronting the country, unaffected by the political pressures of the government in office or the ruling party.
Mint looks at what one could expect in the 2024-25 survey on Friday and the novel ideas proposed by some previous Economic Surveys.
The Survey was first presented in 1950-51 as part of the budget documents but the government later began the practice of tabling it in Parliament a day before. Besides analysing economic trends, the Survey offers potential policy directions for the future.
What to look for in Economic Survey 2024-25
The Survey is expected to highlight the issues of job creation, increasingly inward-looking global economies, trends in artificial intelligence, and how India can cope with emerging challenges and reshape the global economic landscape.
In a column published byMint on 29 January, Nageswaran indicated that the Survey this year will delve into the issue of the private sector finding the right balance between capital deployment and labour employment, given that social stability and long-term profitability rests on it.
Energy security and trends in the transition to a cleaner economy, including access to critical inputs and raw materials, are expected to find a mention in the Economic Survey. It will also project economic growth for FY26.
Economic Survey 2023-24
Long before India and China entered into an agreement on disengagement along the border in October, the Economic Survey presented on 23 July last year by Nageswaran’s team had proposed that foreign direct investment from China may be viewed in a more favourable light and that nations such as Mexico, Vietnam, Taiwan and Korea, which were direct beneficiaries of America’s trade diversion from China, had also displayed a concomitant rise in Chinese FDI. The proposal marked the beginning of the thaw in economic relations between the two nations after the June 2020 border tensions in Galwan Valley.
The Survey also delivered a hard-hitting message to corporate India: “Employment is about dignity, self-worth, self-esteem, self-respect, and standing in the family and community, not just about the income it brings. That is why it is in the enlightened self-interest of the Indian corporate sector, swimming in excess profits, to take its responsibility to create jobs seriously. Of course, it must find people with the right attitude and skill.”
This message is expected to resonate in the 2024-25 Survey too.
Economic Survey 2022-23
The Survey highlighted that multilateral institutions across the board faced existential challenges and that reforms were needed for them to deliver on their mandates. India can influence the course of events and in the process, fulfil its aspiration to be a global power of relevance, the Survey suggested.
It proposed massive skilling and education reforms to leverage India’s demographic dividend.
“Impetus must be given to education and skilling to match the requirements of modern industry and technologies,” the Survey suggested, while recommending efforts to deal with the challenges of climate change and energy transition.
Economic Survey 2021-22
The Survey highlighted how using satellite imagery and geospatial technology can help to measure economic activity and various developments including urbanisation, infrastructure building, environmental impact and farming practices.
The Survey, authored by then Principal Economic Advisor Sanjeev Sanyal, showed that using satellite images of India’s night-time luminosity between 2012 and 2021, expansion of electricity supply, geographical distribution of population and economic activity and urban expansion could be gauged and represented.
Economic Survey 2020-21
The Survey, authored by then Chief Economic Advisor Krishnamurthy V. Subramanian, criticised global credit rating companies for not giving India a better rating despite its economic fundamentals. The Survey alleged a bias among rating companies against emerging economies.
“Have India’s sovereign credit ratings reflected its fundamentals in the past? No!” the Survey said. “India has consistently been rated below expectation as compared to its performance on various parameters during the period 2000-20.”
Economic Survey 2019-20
The Survey authored by Krishnamurthy Subramanian proposed what he called ‘Thalinomics,’ an effort at assessing price stability by looking at the cost of a plate of food or thali. The Survey said that based on thali prices across 80 centres in 25 states and Union Territories from 2006 to 2019, there was evidence of price stability. A thali became more affordable for the common man, the Survey pointed out.
Economic Survey 2016-17
The Survey, scripted by the then Chief Economic Advisor Arvind Subramanian’s team, highlighted the ‘festering twin balance sheet problem’ – over-indebtedness in the corporate and banking sectors and its impact on private investments.
