Despite the recent tariff announcement, economists have largely held off from lowering their forecasts for India’s GDP growth.A CNBC-TV18 poll of 15 economists reveals that while none have formally revised their estimates downward—barring one exception—the consensus forecast now stands at 6.3%, slightly below the Reserve Bank of India’s 6.5%.
Most economists, however, are prepared to trim their projections by around 20 basis points if the tariffs remain in place. There is still hope among analysts that India might negotiate a rollback within the week, which is why many are withholding revisions for now.
Another factor holding them back is uncertainty about the final shape of the tariff penalties, which could either soften or harden the blow. Yet, the overall sentiment suggests a downward bias, with forecasts likely to slip to the 6–6.1% range if the full 25% tariffs are implemented.The more immediate shift, however, is visible in inflation expectations. A significant drop in food prices and concerns over a global slowdown have led to a dramatic downward revision in full-year inflation forecasts.While the Reserve Bank is at 3.7%, the economist consensus has plummeted to 2.9%—down from 3.4% just a month ago. This marks an 80-basis-point gap from the RBI’s estimate.The combination of lower food inflation and potential disinflation across non-food categories—triggered by weak export demand and falling commodity prices—has reinforced expectations of another interest rate cut later in the year.Also Read | RBI rate cut likely in October, more may follow if inflation dips: Morgan Stanley economist
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