Benchmark futures rose as much as 1.8% following choppy trading in the previous session.US President Donald Trump called for the evacuation of Tehran, and later said that his early departure from the Group of Seven summit in Canada has “nothing to do” with working on a ceasefire between Israel and Iran.
Although Europe looks well supplied for now, its heavy reliance on global flows of liquefied natural gas keeps prices prone to sharp moves when geopolitics create risks for the international energy trade. The continent needs more of the fuel in the coming months to replenish its gas stockpiles after they dropped to a three-year low this winter.A key threat comes from Iran’s ability to seal off the Strait of Hormuz if the war escalates, potentially blocking shipments from a top LNG exporter, Qatar. It’s also a key route for oil supplies from the region, leaving traders laser-focused on tanker movements.
The impact of the conflict on international gas markets has been limited so far, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc. analysts Samantha Dart and Frederik Witzemann. Modest imports from China have left more fuel available for other buyers such as Egypt, which is rushing to find alternative suppliers after Israel slashed flows.Separately, traders are monitoring plans in the European Union to gradually end reliance on Russian supplies by the end of 2027 — both pipeline gas and LNG — currently about 13% of the region’s imports. On Tuesday, the European Commission is set to disclose its detailed proposals on banning the flows.
Dutch front-month futures, Europe’s gas benchmark, rose 0.6%% to €38.12 a megawatt-hour by 8:52 a.m. in Amsterdam.
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