Sunday, October 12, 2025

FMCG Q2FY26 a ‘non-event’, says Motilal Oswal’s Naveen Trivedi; festive demand to drive recovery

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Naveen Trivedi, Senior Vice President and Research Analyst–Consumer & FMCG at Motilal Oswal Financial Services, believes the July-September quarter of 2025 (Q2FY26) will likely be a “non-event” for the fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) sector, with limited earnings surprises.He attributes this to continued volume pressures, weak rural demand, and subdued pricing growth. “We expect muted revenue performance across most FMCG names in Q2,” Trivedi said, stating that the real momentum will begin only in the second half of 2025-26 (FY26).

He expects the festive season to drive the real recovery in demand, supported by improving consumer sentiment and better rural traction. “The October-December quarter of 2025 (Q3FY26) should be stronger, given the festival-driven demand and better seasonality,” he added.

Trivedi also addressed concerns around Hindustan Unilever’s October distribution disruptions, saying they were temporary and unlikely to affect the company’s long-term fundamentals. On Marico, he stated that while revenue performance has been solid, margins need close monitoring due to input cost fluctuations.

Also Read:

Wheat & cocoa prices could squeeze FMCG margins, say Bikaji and Parle executives

In the quick-service restaurant (QSR) space, Trivedi expects a recovery from Q3 onwards, as discretionary spending picks up. He also hinted that possible synergies could emerge if hypothetical QSR mergers were to happen in the future.

On the jewellery, Trivedi said he is bullish on PN Gadgil Jewellers’ expansion strategy, citing strong brand equity and regional dominance. Among QSR players, his preference remains with Restaurant Brands Asia, which operates Burger King India, thanks to its improving operating metrics and aggressive store rollout.

Also Read: Auto & FMCG festive demand trends: What industry voices say

For the entire interview, watch the accompanying video

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