Falling energy prices and improving weather conditions could boost consumer spending in the coming months, potentially supporting growth.
Englander expects the US Federal Reserve to cut interest rates twice this year, once in the second and again in the third. However, further cuts are unlikely as fiscal policies continue to support government spending.In contrast, Japan’s central bank may raise interest rates twice, given stable inflation and wage growth. As a result, the yen is likely to outperform other major currencies.
Also Read: Will there be a global recession in 2025?
The recent wave of US tariffs is expected to push inflation higher, though not drastically. Englander believes that while tariffs may lead to price increases, their overall impact should remain under control.
He also expects the US government to use fiscal policies to support economic growth, which could strengthen the dollar in the second half of the year.Also Read: JPMorgan’s Jahangir Aziz expects US Fed to act only if tariffs disrupt inflation expectations
According to Matt Orton, Chief Market Strategist at Raymond James Investment, investors are increasingly exploring opportunities outside as US equities are facing volatility.
“We just saw one of the strongest four-week inflows to European equities in the past 10 years,” he said, adding that a weaker dollar could further encourage foreign inflows into emerging markets, including India.
Orton remains positive on Indian equities, as they have already adjusted to growth concerns. If the dollar remains weak, foreign investments in India could rise. However, he advised investors to wait for market trends before making new commitments. “I’d rather be a little bit late than too early,” he said, emphasising a cautious but optimistic approach.
Given the uncertain market environment, Orton recommended focusing on companies with strong earnings and fundamentals.
For the entire interview, watch the accompanying video
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