Renowned British-American historian Niall Ferguson believes India’s recent economic performance is one of the most striking global developments – driven not only by sound policies but also by the country’s institutional strengths and democratic foundations.Speaking at CNBC-TV18’s Global Leadership Summit 2025, Ferguson said India’s open society, regular elections, and free press provide it with a “fundamental institutional advantage” over China.While China remains a manufacturing powerhouse, its aging population is now a major structural challenge. In contrast, India’s younger demographic and steady growth above 6% are positioning it for long-term catch-up, especially as China’s economy slows to low single digits.
“There is, however, still a long way to go,” Ferguson said, pointing to gaps in education quality. He observed that India’s elite institutions produce world-class talent, but the country must now focus on strengthening primary education to build a broad base of human capital.Ferguson praised Prime Minister Narendra Modi for achieving what many predecessors could not – overcoming political and bureaucratic barriers to economic reform. However, he cautioned that India’s next big challenge is to emulate best practices from modernised Asian economies such as South Korea, rather than looking to China as a model.Amid what he described as a “second Cold War” since 2018 and a global backlash against globalisation, Ferguson said India’s strategy must be pragmatic. He urged policymakers to ensure that India remains on strong terms with the United States, calling it crucial for economic and strategic stability.As the global order shifts and protectionism rises, Ferguson’s message was clear: India’s blend of democracy, demography, and determination can help it rise – provided it invests in foundational education and maintains its global partnerships wisely.Also Read: GLS 2025 | National Manufacturing Mission a ‘game changer’, to roll out by Nov-end: NITI Aayog CEO
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