In India, 24-karat gold was priced at ₹1.02 lakh per 10 grams, while 22-karat stood at ₹93,810 per 10 grams, according to Goodreturns.
“Trump has been dishing up fresh tariff threats, which is keeping gold in the frame as a defensive play for investors,” said Tim Waterer, Chief Market Analyst at KCM Trade.“Gold is moving towards the doorstep of the psychological $3,400 an ounce level, with risk-assets being kept off-balance somewhat by the constant tariff proclamations by the US President,” Waterer added.
Dollar weakness and rate cut expectations support bullion
The dollar index stayed near a one-week low after US jobs data increased expectations of monetary easing. Traders now see a 94% chance of a 25-basis point rate cut at the Federal Reserve’s September meeting, according to CME FedWatch Tool.
Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari also hinted that rate cuts may be necessary in the short term as the economy slows, even as inflation remains somewhat uncertain.
Domestic market view: RBI’s dovish hold adds tailwind
Following the Reserve Bank of India’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) decision to hold the repo rate steady at 5.50%, gold gained domestic traction.
The central bank also cut its FY26 CPI inflation forecast to 3.1%.“This monetary posture enhances gold’s attractiveness as a strategic hedge against potential volatility,” said Aksha Kamboj, VP, India Bullion & Jewellers Association (IBJA) and Executive Chairperson, Aspect Global Ventures.
“With inflation easing and GDP growth steady near 6.5%, gold remains a compelling safe-haven, especially amid global trade tensions.”
Technical range and rupee factor
Despite bullish triggers, the domestic gold rally may face short-term exhaustion.
“Rupee weakness is what holds gold price in the domestic market. A range between ₹98,500–₹1.02 lakh per 10 grams is likely in the near term,” said Jateen Trivedi, VP Research Analyst – Commodity and Currency, LKP Securities.
Investor strategy: Caution within opportunity
While gold remains attractive as a hedge against uncertainty, its recent rally suggests limited immediate upside unless driven by new macroeconomic signals—like another central bank pivot or a major escalation in geopolitical risk, experts say.
Investors eyeing entry may consider staggered buying or wait for a dip. The rupee’s trajectory, US-India trade developments, and Fed policy direction will be key drivers for gold’s next move.
–With Reuters inputs
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