Friday, July 25, 2025

Higher US tariffs may stay, but inflation fears overdone: Milken economist

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Higher tariffs are likely to become a permanent feature of US trade policy, but fears of a sharp rise in inflation as a result may be exaggerated, says William Lee, Chief Economist at the Milken Institute.He believes the real issue is not the tariff rate itself, but whether countries are willing to open their markets to US companies.

“President Trump has made that very clear, whether it’s 10% or 50%, that really doesn’t matter that much. The key to how companies are successfully able to engage with the United States is whether or not they invest and whether or not they open their markets to the US,” Lee told CNBC-TV18.

Tariffs could become a major source of revenue for the US government. He mentioned that the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates the US could collect around $2.5 trillion from tariffs over the next ten years. This substantial revenue stream is not yet included in official budget planning, which means it could help the US manage its debt more effectively in the future.

Speaking about China, Lee highlighted serious problems within its electric vehicle (EV) market. Despite being a global leader in EV technology, Chinese companies are engaging in aggressive price wars. “They are killing themselves in China over excess competition… trying to lower prices, to knock each other out,” he said. This is leading to deflation, where prices fall due to weak demand and intense internal competition, creating more stress in the economy.Also Read: India set to gain from trade shifts, say Nomura & BNP Paribas amid US tariff uncertainty

Lee also gave an optimistic view of the US economy, especially in terms of business investment. While consumer spending is slowing down, businesses are investing heavily in research and development. “Business fixed investment… has been growing double digits,” he said. He used Nvidia’s Jensen Huang as an example of how American tech companies are thriving, especially in global markets for artificial intelligence (AI) technology.

Also Read: India’s tariff worries may ease, but clarity still key for companies: Allspring’s Prashant Paroda

He addressed the concern that tariffs might drive up inflation in the US. Lee argued that this risk is overstated because the US economy is largely service-based. “A 25% tariff… will raise consumer prices by under a percentage point,” he said. He also pointed out that falling energy prices are helping keep inflation in check. “Gasoline prices have dropped by 10% over the last year,” he added. He believes inflation will remain manageable, and the fear around rising prices due to tariffs is likely overblown.

For the entire interview, watch the accompanying video

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