Saturday, July 12, 2025

How Reliance Industries could add the next $50 billion in market value

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Reliance Industries Ltd (RIL), India’s energy, telecom, and retail powerhouse led by billionaire Mukesh Ambani, is gearing up for its next phase of value creation. According to Morgan Stanley analysts, the company’s strategic investments in new energy and artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure are set to drive a projected $50 billion increase in market value.Currently valued at over $240 billion, Reliance’s future growth hinges heavily on scaling its diversified verticals, particularly in new energy and AI. The firm is constructing a cutting-edge Generative AI data centre in Jamnagar, slated for completion within two years, powered by NVIDIA’s latest Blackwell chips.
The facility will initially feature 1GW of data centre capacity, demanding around 1.3GW of round-the-clock green power, expected to be sourced from Reliance’s rapidly expanding renewable ecosystem.
RIL’s green energy plans include lithium iron phosphate battery manufacturing and green hydrogen production, centred on a 2,000-acre site near Kandla, Gujarat. The company aims to integrate 10GW of solar capacity by the end of 2026, supporting its AI ambitions and positioning India as an emerging data centre hub.Morgan Stanley forecasts a 14% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) in Reliance’s earnings from FY25 to FY28, driven by robust performance across oil-to-chemicals (O2C), retail, telecom, and new energy segments. The conglomerate’s retail arm is expected to grow revenue by 17% in FY26, supported by new fashion brands and quick commerce ventures.

Meanwhile, the O2C segment is projected to achieve a 13% earnings CAGR due to rising domestic fuel sales, refining margins, and petrochemical capacity expansion.

On valuation, Morgan Stanley applies global peer multiples to Reliance’s business lines, assigning a $17 billion enterprise value to its new energy vertical. The investment firm’s bullish target price for Reliance shares stands at ₹2,034, with a conservative estimate of ₹1,210.

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