Sunday, June 22, 2025

India may extend gains over China, but global risks remain high: Geoffrey Dennis

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India is likely to continue outperforming China and other Asian markets even as global risks rise, according to Geoffrey Dennis, independent emerging markets commentator.Dennis said investors are once again choosing between India and China, and India remains the stronger bet. “We’re back in the story of really, do people want to buy China or do they want to buy India?” he said, adding that India’s resilience has made it the big beneficiary of China’s recent pullback.

Dennis pointed out that China’s ongoing challenges—weak consumer spending and a major property sector problem—remain unresolved despite repeated pledges by the Chinese government.

In contrast, India’s domestic economy remains relatively strong, and the country is better shielded from external shocks. “India is a little bit more protected from [tariff risks] than the other big Asian markets. And of course, it’s a slightly more closed economy,” Dennis said.Also Read: US consumer spending slowing, loan defaults rising amid high rates: Seth Freeman

He added that falling oil prices are an added positive for India.
Oil prices rose slightly in early trade on April 28, but gains were capped by uncertainty over trade talks. Concerns about global growth and fuel demand and the prospect of higher supply from OPEC+ also weighed on sentiment. Brent crude was up 22 cents at $67.09 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate gained 24 cents to $63.26. Both benchmarks fell over 1% last week on worries about oversupply and the economic impact of tariffs.

Also Read: India needs private investment boost, has room for rate cut: IMF’s Srinivasan

On the global front, Dennis warned that escalating US tariffs could have serious consequences for growth and markets. He called the proposed tariff hikes “madness” and said, “This still leaves us tariffs at the highest level they’ve been for 100 years… I think this is disastrous for the global economy. I think it’s disastrous for the US economy.”

Dennis expects the global economy to weaken sharply if tariffs remain elevated, leading to slower US growth, renewed inflation, and turbulence in both equity and bond markets. “My gut feel is, on certainly a three-month basis, markets will be lower from here,” he said

Also Read: Not investing in Amazon was a mistake: Prashant Khemka

For the entire interview, watch the accompanying video

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