While China will remain a key player, Stoltzfus pointed out, “It will no longer be ‘all roads lead to China’ when it comes to the global supply chain.” He noted that supply chains are now being redistributed across countries, driven by past disruptions such as the financial crisis, the pandemic, and recent tariff negotiations.
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He also addressed concerns about corporate earnings. However, he remains optimistic about the trajectory of revenue and earnings growth in EMs due to structural shifts in global trade.Turning to the US equity market, Stoltzfus shared an update on the S&P 500. Oppenheimer had set a year-end target of 7100 in December, but revised it down to 5950 in April after the market declined nearly 19%. He expects gains of about 10–11% from current levels by year-end, driven by improving sentiment and easing concerns about tariffs.
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He also highlighted that industrials have become the best-performing sector year-to-date, suggesting a broadening of the S&P 500 rally beyond the technology-heavy gains seen earlier.
Stoltzfus expects the US dollar to remain the reserve currency of the world, adding that, “If you consider all currencies being in a basket of dirty shirts, the US tends to be the cleanest dirty shirt.”
For the full interview, watch the accompanying video
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