India on track to overtake Japan in 2025, but not yet no. 4: IMF data

On Saturday, May 24, BVR Subrahmanyam, Chief Executive Officer of NITI Aayog, made a statement declaring India as the world’s fourth-largest economy, ahead of Japan. “We are the fourth largest economy as I speak. We are a $4 trillion economy as I speak, and this is not my data. This is IMF data. India today is larger than Japan,” said Subrahmanyam at a public event.However, a review of the latest data from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) indicates that this statement may be a tad premature.

According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), India is indeed poised to overtake Japan to become the fourth-largest economy by nominal GDP in 2025. However, based on the IMF’s most recent projections from its April 2025 World Economic Outlook, the transition has not yet officially occurred.
Here are the IMF’s nominal GDP projections for 2025 (in billions of USD):GDP At Current Prices (In USD Billions): IMF Database, April 2025

The figures show that while India is very close to Japan in nominal GDP as of calendar year 2024, it is still slightly behind as per the IMF’s current estimates. As per the IMF’s projections, however, India is indeed poised to take over Japan by a small margin in 2025 to emerge as the fourth largest economy in the world. Further, the IMF estimates India would even overtake Germany by the end of 2028 to become the third-largest economy globally.

“It is only the United States, China and Germany, which are larger, and if we stick to what is being planned, what is being thought through, it’s a matter of another 2, 2.5 to 3 years, that we would become the third-largest economy,” Subrahmanyam had said in his remarks on Saturday.

The National Statistics Office (NSO), Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) is set to release data for India’s FY25 and Q4 FY25 GDP growth print on May 30.

The International Monetary Fund estimates India’s GDP would grow by at 6.2% in FY26 and 6.3% in FY27, as per its April World Economic Outlook Report. The Reserve Bank of India, meanwhile, expects India’s economy to grow by 6.5% in FY26.