Islamabad surely believes and claims that these two will not give them up at least in near future. But both Beijing and Ankara also have their other global and regional preoccupations and universally acknowledged red line of terrorism linked especially to a State like Pakistan — which for the last three decades has chosen it as an instrument of its foreign policy especially against India and Afghanistan. While Beijing and Ankara may have their own personal or strategic reasons for their distaste for New Delhi, but being clubbed with a terror sponsoring state has its own costs both reputational and real. Whether it will deter them remains to be seen.
The whole world knows that Pakistan is a haven of terrorism and factory of terrorists and extremists indoctrinated and used against India by the military and ISI under the garb of support of Kashmiris. But what sub-human dastardly terror acts of April 22, perpetrated by the Pakistan based offshoot of internationally proscribed LeT (Lashkar-e- Taiba) i. e TRF (the Resistance Front) which claimed responsibility for the heinous attacks has once again exposed the devious deep state of Pakistan. Moreover, their leaders have been boasting in the media with alacrity that they have been creating these extremist and terrorist groups as a rentier state for the West and others. But these Pahalgam attacks in J&K have even compelled Pakistan‘s ironclad friends to pause and condemn the terrorism, of course without apportioning the blame to Rawalpindi. But then they should have factored that India’s response will be firm and revenge decisive. It has been proved so in its decimation of the nine terror factories including the chased JeM (Jaish-e Mohammed) leader Masood Azhar’s hideout killing his notorious brother who was also responsible for the US journalist Daniel Pearl’s death. Pakistani counter-retaliation proves its complicity with terrorism beyond doubt.
Pakistan has banked on China for funds, military purchases and international support especially at the UNSC for putting technical holds on proscribing dangerous terrorists by the 1267 UN Committee more often than not. Ironically, Pakistan is currently a non-permanent member of the UNSC and therefore the dilution of the language of the sole UNSC statement was skewed with the help of China. Going forward one can not see any change in Chinese stance despite their misgivings about the Pakistani approach and actions.
Initially, Beijing condemned terrorism while prescribing de-escalation and urging to “remain calm, exercise restraint and avoid actions that could further complicate the situation.” Hypocrisy at its best indeed. Even they have assured to Islamabad that they will stand to protect Pakistan’s sovereignty. It is a well-known fact that Pakistan de facto has turned not only into an ally of China but an appendage that could be used to create trouble for India in its larger strategic game.
Moreover, Pakistan is a critical connect for Chinese Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) with infructuous investments of nearly $68 billion, which though suffered occasional attacks by Baloch and others, would compel it to protect its strategic and commercial interests. Moreover, as per Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) and various other estimates nearly 81% of Pakistani arms and weapons systems have been provided by China. Hence it is expected that it will provide Pakistan with all the assistance especially military, intelligence and financial and at the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) and IMF, UNSC etc., for them to stay afloat in the ensuing and intensifying war with India. It will also be a demonstration that China stands by its friends.
Xi Jinping is in Moscow for Victory Day celebrations as a guest of honor of President Putin and will try to work out some proposal for calming the tensions and escalation. Not that it will make any difference in the outcome but it will prolong misery for Pakistan as India gears up its responses in a wider territory. Indian NSA Ajit Doval has also spoken to his Chinese counterpart about the developing situation with a clear message that India does not want war but is prepared for it should Islamabad escalate beyond the threshold.
Overtly, China will continue to talk of de-escalation and peace since given its economic engagement and interests and somewhat improved relationship with India has become more significant in the wake of Sino-US geo economic and geopolitical competition. It prefers an India which exercises strategic autonomy and is also a part of the BRICS and SCO etc.
But there should be no doubt which way its scales will tip even as it would not directly support an all-out war between India and Pakistan when its joker will have to be played out in the open. India knows it well and is prepared for it. New Delhi will continue with its diplomatic and military response until the world begins to see the reason that terrorists and their sponsors must not be condoned for convenience. It is an imperative that Pakistan’s so called ironclad friends do a cost-benefit analysis lest they be on the worn side of the history.
—The author, Anil Trigunayat, is a former Indian Ambassador to Jordan, Libya and Malta, and currently heads the West Asia Experts Group at Vivekananda International Foundation. Views expressed are personal.
Read his previous articles here
(Edited by : Unnikrishnan)
