India’s economic outlook for FY26 is marked by cautious optimism, with GDP growth projected between 6.3% and 6.8%. The finance ministry believes the higher end of the range is achievable if global conditions are supportive, though it remains confident of hitting the lower bound even amid global headwinds.Officials say strong macroeconomic fundamentals are helping the country stay resilient. These include healthy tax collections and steady momentum in tax inflows, which continue to support the government’s growth expectations.
Data from GST and customs till the end of March point to sustained economic activity. Imports driven by both consumption and investment have remained steady, indicating a healthy domestic demand environment.
Exports have also picked up, which officials say may be the reason customs revenue has not increased sharply despite strong import trends. The revival in outbound trade is seen as another sign that the economy is far from sluggish.Finance ministry officials believe India could even surpass the Reserve Bank of India’s current growth estimate of 6.5% but stress that they are keeping a close watch on global trade trends, tariffs, and supply chain issues to avoid disruptions.While external risks remain, the overall message from the government is that India’s growth engine continues to move forward, supported by a stable economic base and prudent monitoring of global developments.(Edited by : Ajay Vaishnav)
