India advances towards nuclear modernisation
India’s nuclear warhead count has risen to an estimated 180 as of January 2025, a modest increase from last year’s 172, as per SIPRI.The increase is not just in quantity but also in delivery capability. India is developing a more sophisticated “nuclear triad” – comprising land-based ballistic missiles, aircraft and nuclear-powered submarines (SSBNs).
The report notes that India is also moving closer to adopting ready-to-launch configurations through the use of canisterised missile systems. This technology allows warheads to be stored in sealed, pre-mounted launch containers.
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This could indicate a doctrinal shift towards India mating warheads with their delivery systems during peacetime, thereby enabling quicker launch readiness.
SIPRI also suggests that India’s future missile systems may include Multiple Independently Targetable Re-entry Vehicles (MIRVs), which could allow a single missile to hit several targets, substantially increasing the strike capacity.
Although Pakistan remains the primary focus of India’s nuclear deterrence, SIPRI says that India is also prioritising capabilities that can reach targets across China, signalling a broader strategic scope.
Pakistan focussing on tactical weapons
SIPRI notes that Pakistan’s nuclear stockpile remains steady at an estimated 170 warheads as of early 2025. However, the country is also expanding its delivery systems, working on air, land, and sea-launched platforms.
Unlike India’s ‘No First Use’ policy, Pakistan maintains a deliberately opaque doctrine, with a pronounced emphasis on short-range tactical nuclear weapons. These are designed for battlefield use, which SIPRI describes as a potentially destabilising stance due to its lower threshold for nuclear engagement.
SIPRI also highlights Pakistan’s continued accumulation of fissile material and new missile development, indicating its arsenal could grow in the coming decade.
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China rapidly expanding its nuclear capacity
China remains the fastest growing nuclear power, with its warhead count rising from around 500 to over 600 in just one year. China has built more than 350 new Inter-Continental Ballistic Missile (ICBM) silos, significantly boosting its second-strike capability, according to SIPRI.
Possible shift towards mating warheads with missiles even in peacetime is also noted in Beijing’s approach to nuclear weapons. SIPRI notes that if the current trend continues, China could possess 1,500 warheads by 2025, altering the global strategic balance.
Risk of miscalculation amid rising tensions
SIPRI’s assessment comes amid heightened global instability, from the Russia-Ukraine war to rising conflict between Iran and Israel. The erosion of arms control regimes, secrecy around deployments, and growing reliance on tactical nuclear weapons amplify the risk of accidental or preemptive escalation.
“Nuclear weapons do not prevent conflict. They also come with immense risks of escalation and catastrophic miscalculation—particularly when disinformation is rife—and may end up making a country’s population less safe, not more,” noted Matt Korda, Associate Senior Researcher with SIPRI’s Weapons of Mass Destruction Programme and Associate Director for the Nuclear Information Project at FAS.
Nuclear warheads across the globe
Globally, Russia and the United States remain the dominant nuclear powers with 5,880 and 5,244 warheads, respectively, with both the nations actively modernising their arsenals. The New START treaty (Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty)’s expiry looming closer with February 4, 2026 approaching, no negotiations to extend the agreements leaves possibility for both the countries to multiply their nuclear weapons.
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SIPRI notes that France, with around 290 warheads, and the United Kingdom (UK), with about 225 warheads, maintain smaller yet modernising arsenals. France is pushing for a broader “European dimension” to its deterrence, while the UK is building new SSBNs to maintain continuous at-sea deterrence, despite fiscal pressures.
North Korea is estimated to have assembled 50 warheads and has capability and material for more. SIPRI flags its progress on tactical nuclear weapons as particularly destabilising.
Israel maintains its long-standing nuclear opacity, with about 80-90 warheads and recent signs of technical upgrades.
