India-US trade deal unlikely before November without tariff rollback: Ex-WTO envoy Jayant Dasgupta

India and the United States are still some distance away from a trade deal as key sticking points remain unresolved, said Jayant Dasgupta, former ambassador to the World Trade Organization (WTO). He emphasised that the rollback of tariffs imposed by Washington will be the most important condition for any agreement.

“The most important sticking point will be, of course, the rollback of the tariffs. The first tranche of that will be the 25% which was the secondary tariff imposed from the 27th of August, and some kind of substantial reduction in the first tranche imposed on the 7th of August of 25%. What we are hoping is it will come down to at least 15%. Without that, I don’t think there would be an agreement,” Dasgupta told CNBC-TV18.

He noted that India will continue to buy Russian oil and move forward on defence production with Russia, including co-production of the Su-57 fighter jets, which could complicate discussions with Washington. “Defence production-wise — co-production and purchase of Russian military hardware — I think that is something which we will not be able to compromise on, and President Trump’s administration will have to accept that,” he said.

On the latest US decision to impose 100% tariffs on branded or patented pharma products unless companies set up factories in America, Dasgupta said the Indian industry will be largely unaffected. “For the time being, and I emphasise this point, I think the Indian industry is not going to get affected very much. There are a few contract manufacturers in India which do manufacturing of patent-protected drugs for US companies or other companies worldwide. Their exports may get affected… but the overall hit would be very nominal.”

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Dasgupta added that tariffs on furniture and heavy trucks are unlikely to have a significant impact on India, though upholstery fabric exports could be hurt. He also pointed out that the Trump administration is invoking national security considerations for some of these measures.

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Looking ahead, he cautioned that the prospects of a breakthrough before November remain slim. “Unless there is considerable satisfaction, or almost total satisfaction, on those points, I don’t think we will be able to have a trade deal by November,” he said, adding that Prime Minister Narendra Modi was unlikely to meet US President Donald Trump on the sidelines of the ASEAN Summit without a firm agenda already agreed upon.

Watch accompanying video for entire conversation.