India’s energy security at risk if Iran blocks Strait of Hormuz: Former Foreign Secretary Shashank

India’s energy security could take a severe hit if Iran decides to close the Strait of Hormuz amid escalating conflict with Israel, former Foreign Secretary Shashank has warned. “The Strait is only about 21 kilometres wide. If it is blocked, the supply of oil and gas to India would be severely affected. That will have a major short-term impact,” he told CNBC-TV18.Shashank noted that while India would eventually have to seek alternative routes and sources for energy, an immediate disruption would be costly for the economy.
Amid rising fears of nuclear escalation and sustained missile exchanges between Iran and Israel, Shashank said that Iran’s military capabilities are largely limited to ballistic missiles and regional proxies like Hezbollah and the Houthis. “I don’t think Iran has any significantly new or more serious weapons,” he said, adding that Israel’s actions appear to stem from fears that Iran is close to reaching nuclear weapons capability.
He pointed to recent reports from the IAEA indicating uranium enrichment levels of up to 80–90%, and added, “Israel is concerned about its very existence… I think that is the reason why they have decided to take pre-emptive action and ensure that Iran does not reach the stage of having a nuclear bomb.”Shashank also said India must carefully navigate the geopolitical fallout, given its strong ties with both Iran and Israel. But for now, the priority must be the safety of Indian nationals. “The first priority at this stage is not balancing but ensuring the security of Indian nationals in Iran and Israel,” he said.

There are an estimated 10,000 Indian nationals in Iran, including about 4,000 students. Many of them have already been moved out of Tehran, as attacks on the Iranian capital have intensified.

Armenia has emerged as the most viable evacuation route, according to Shashank, who noted that the Indian Embassy in Tehran is working with local authorities and other embassies to coordinate safe passage. “Generally, I find that Armenia is a preferred destination for many students living closer to it. Others are being sent to places that are considered safe for the time being,” he said.

Evacuation, however, remains a major logistical challenge. The overland route to Armenia from Tehran spans about 1,000 kilometres, while Turkmenistan lies even further away. With many air routes shut due to the conflict, road travel is currently the only viable option.

Shashank expressed confidence in India’s diplomatic efforts, stating, “It’s a difficult situation, but I’m quite sure that the Ministry of External Affairs and the Embassy in Tehran will be doing their very best to ensure the safe evacuation of Indian nationals.”

He also said India must ensure that infrastructure projects like the Chabahar port—key to its access to Central Asia—are not disrupted. “We had set up a trilateral strategic partnership with Iran and Afghanistan… India would very much like that this port continues to function,” he said.

Watch accompanying video for entire conversation.