Saturday, June 14, 2025

Iran may retaliate against Israel, but won’t escalate against US yet, says former Indian diplomat KC Singh

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The Israeli military has launched a series of strikes on nuclear facilities in Iran, also targeting key figures in the Iranian military leadership. Among the sites hit was the Natanz Uranium Enrichment Plant, and reports say six Iranian nuclear scientists have been killed. Senior Iranian military officials, including General Hossein Salami, the head of the Revolutionary Guard, are also believed to be among the dead.In a massive aerial offensive, Israel deployed 200 fighter jets and struck over 100 targets across Iran, including several in the capital, Tehran. In response to the escalation, the Israeli government has declared a nationwide state of emergency. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu defended the military action, stating that the operation would continue for as long as necessary.
Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has promised retaliation, warning that Israel would face severe consequences. Iranian state media reported civilian casualties in Tehran and broadcast footage of street protests, where crowds were seen chanting “Death to Israel” and “Death to America.”
Both countries have closed their airspace until further notice. Iran has launched hundreds of drones at Israel, and the Israeli military says it is actively intercepting them.Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump has urged Iran to negotiate. “There has already been great death and destruction,” he wrote on Truth Social, “but there is still time to make this slaughter, with the next already planned attacks being even more brutal, come to an end. Iran must make a deal, before there is nothing left, and save what was once known as the Iranian empire.”

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio clarified that Israel acted unilaterally and that the US was not involved in the attacks.

To explore the path ahead for Iran-Israel relations, CNBC-TV18 spoke with KC Singh, former foreign secretary, and Benny Benjamin, former Israeli Defence Force Officer.

Below is the verbatim transcript of the discussion.

Q: Donald Trump, posting on Truth Social, said: “Just make a deal before it’s too late, before there is nothing left.” We’ve not seen any American President speak like this before. What do you think is going to happen? Iran is not going to take this lying down. Ayatollah Khamenei has promised retaliation. How soon and how strongly will that happen, in your view?

KC Singh: President Trump initiated the talks in March. He sent a letter to the Iranian leadership. The talks began in Muscat, and then sometime in June there appeared to be a split—this became evident when President Khamenei tweeted, saying they want to shut us down 100%.

So, the Americans had offered a deal requiring Iran to completely dismantle its nuclear programme. This was very different from the 2015 JCPOA agreement between the five permanent members of the UN Security Council plus Germany and Iran, which Trump scrapped during his presidency. That earlier deal allowed Iran to continue nuclear enrichment under IAEA oversight, with constraints on duration and scope.

After Trump withdrew from that agreement, Iran was essentially freed up and began expanding its programme. Today, they reportedly have around 500 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60%. For clarity: weapons-grade uranium is enriched to 90%. While it takes time to go from 2–3% to 60%, going from 60% to 90% can be done very quickly. This means Iran could, in theory, produce enough material for one device per month, or already have material for multiple devices.

We don’t yet know the extent of the damage caused by the Israeli strikes. Natanz is above ground, but several other facilities are deep underground or built into mountains. Whether those were impacted is unclear.

As for Iranian options: the Americans have said, “We weren’t involved.” But Iran had earlier warned that any Israeli attack would be treated as an American one, prompting retaliation against US interests in the Gulf. That’s why the US withdrew diplomats from Iraq and relocated families from military bases in the region.

So far, Iran hasn’t attacked the US, and perhaps it won’t. They may choose not to escalate further. They’ll retaliate against Israel—but Israel’s Iron Dome and advanced air defence systems limit the impact of such strikes.

This leaves Iran with few options. Hezbollah is too weak at present. Hamas has been decimated. Syria offers no real support under the current leadership. Iran may receive advisory support from Russia or China, but neither will engage militarily.

Trump’s recent comments might inflame matters further. His stance comes off as a coordinated front with Israel, even though he plays the “good cop” role. That undermines neutrality and may deepen Iranian resentment.

Iran is a proud, ancient civilisation—2,500 years old, tracing back to the Achaemenid Empire. Trump even referenced that heritage. Telling them to accept permanent limits on their sovereignty is insulting.

So, no—I don’t believe they’ll back down. In fact, street protests are already showing defiance. If Netanyahu believes this will trigger regime change, he’s mistaken. It may, in fact, consolidate the regime’s hold.

Let’s just hope this doesn’t escalate further in the Gulf.

Q: Benny Benjamin, would you say this was the culmination of Israel’s military operations against Hamas and Iranian proxies? Was this what everything has been building towards?

Benny Benjamin: First of all, we must remember 7 October—that’s when this began. Hamas, as Iran’s proxy, attacked Israel first. Then came Hezbollah. Then there were attacks from Iraq, Yemen, and even Syria.

Initially, we said, “Please stop.” We appealed to the Lebanese, the Syrians, the Houthis. But Iran was funding them—paying vast sums to all these groups. That’s the real origin of this.

Yes, Netanyahu has been warning about Iran since 2005. But I won’t get into the details of Iran’s nuclear programme—I don’t have all the specifics. Still, for me, everything stems from 7 October.

We’ve responded to Hamas. We’ve targeted Hezbollah. We’ve struck sites in Syria. There’s a new president in Syria. The Houthis continue to launch attacks. There’s no end.

Any country—Israel or even India (I was born in India)—cannot allow itself to be attacked every day. We’ve lived in bomb shelters for over two years. That’s not sustainable.

So yes, this war was inevitable. The Americans attempted negotiations, but President Trump made it clear those weren’t going anywhere. He said Iran wouldn’t change. So, in my opinion, what Netanyahu did tonight—again, I don’t have full operational details—but as an Israeli citizen, I believe something had to give.

Q: Ambassador KC Singh, what options does Iran now have to bring the world—especially the US—back to the negotiating table? Could they shut down the Strait of Hormuz?

Singh: They certainly have the capability, but I don’t think they’ll do that—not yet. It would hurt them too, economically. They were already engaged in discussions with the Americans, but the US came in demanding a full dismantling of Iran’s nuclear programme. That’s simply not acceptable to the Supreme Leader.

The Iranians were more inclined to return to the JCPOA, the old 2015 deal. But that’s not acceptable to Trump—he junked it. He insists Iran must have no nuclear programme at all.

The trouble with Trump is that he tries to play both sides—being involved, yet acting as a bystander. Traditionally, the US has acted both as a participant and mediator in such crises. That balancing role is now gone.

Even under President Biden, the US wasn’t perceived as neutral. Look at Gaza—daily civilian casualties, and no meaningful US restraint on Israel. Netanyahu faces internal political pressure—he barely holds his government together. His support in Europe has faded. But Trump stands by him, backed by a powerful pro-Israel lobby in the US.

In this environment, the US can no longer mediate credibly. Iran is unlikely to return to negotiations unless the terms are revised—and that’s doubtful. Trump has shown frustration that Netanyahu isn’t listening to him, but he’s not applying real pressure.

The US must reconsider its position. A more neutral stance is needed to rein in Israel’s far-right government. And remember, Israeli politics are volatile. It’s for the Israeli people to decide: do they want this hardline government, or a more conciliatory one that pursues peace at home and abroad?

Q: Benny Benjamin, do you get the sense that Israel is now in this for the long haul? We heard from the Israeli Ambassador earlier—they expect retaliation from Iran. Will this drag on for months?

Benjamin: I hope and pray it won’t last for months. We’re a small country, and this affects everyone—our people, our lives.

One thing I can say for sure—Israel doesn’t want war. Absolutely not. But peace isn’t easy in this region. We have peace with Jordan and Egypt. We’ve even normalised ties with the UAE. But we can’t do that with Hamas, or with organisations like the Muslim Brotherhood.

We don’t want another Pakistan—a state with nuclear weapons. That’s Iran. We cannot accept that.

I know what’s happening in India, Israel, and elsewhere with groups like the Brotherhood. I’m not speaking about Muslims in general—just that specific ideology. That has to change.

And if Iran—or any adversary—offers a hand for peace, we will gladly accept it. We have had peace with Jordan and Egypt for decades. No Israeli soldier has been killed in those countries since. That is the best possible outcome. And the Israeli public knows that. We support peace.

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