Monday, August 25, 2025

Market Outlook: CLSA chartist expects Nifty to hit record highs provided it holds this key level

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CLSA’s global chartist Laurence Balanco said that he expects the Nifty to revisit its all-time highs and possibly touch 26,300 by year-end, provided the 24,000 level holds.The CLSA chartist considers 24,000 a crucial support zone, as it includes the 200-day moving average and the upper boundary of the February-April consolidation pattern. As long as the index stays above this level, he believes the market has room for another upward leg, with a longer-term bullish outlook still intact through the end of the decade.

In an interaction with CNBC-TV18, Balanco also struck an optimistic tone on Indian equities overall, citing that several sectors are breaking out of their trading ranges.

He pointed about strong momentum in consumer, auto, and internet stocks, particularly pointing to the auto sector where many stocks have surged past their February highs. According to him, the recent breakouts in auto stocks, backed by momentum indicators, present tactical buying opportunities, especially during any short-term pullbacks.Earlier this year, Balanco said that the Nifty has a long-term upside target of 37,000-42,000. He acknowledged that there would be periods when China rallies strongly, temporarily outperforming, but reiterated that the long-term target for the Nifty remains 37,000-42,000.
He also said he believes India will continue to be a key driver among emerging markets and, relative to global benchmarks, an outperforming market—one that investors should consider increasing their exposure to.Speaking to CNBC-TV18 on March 27, he said that the participation in the rally and the move back above the 50-day moving average is typically a strong historical signal. While short-term pullbacks are likely, the strategy should now be to buy the dips rather than sell into rallies, which had been the trend since September.

Meanwhile, the Indian equity market staged a sharp recovery on Wednesday, supported by gains in IT stocks after a choppy start to trade ahead of the Federal Reserve’s Jackson Hole conference.

On Tuesday, Nifty and Sensex posted modest gains, building on the previous session’s momentum as investors anticipated that recent GST reforms could help curb inflation and prompt additional rate cuts from the Reserve Bank of India. Market sentiment received further support from renewed diplomatic initiatives to resolve the Ukraine conflict and improve Sino-Indian relations amid global uncertainties.

The Nifty extended its winning streak to four consecutive sessions, advancing 103 points to settle at 24,980, just below its intraday high. The broader market mirrored this positive trend, with both Nifty Midcap and Small-cap indices posting gains alongside the benchmark index.

Experts believe the Nifty is approaching its next resistance level at 25,160, representing the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the decline from the recent peak of 25,669 to the low of 24,337. On the downside, the 24,775-24,820 range, where the 20-day and 50-day DEMAs converge, is expected to provide support.

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