UBS said that MCX’s earnings for October alone, if annualised, work out to about ₹320 per share, which is roughly the level it had earlier projected for FY30. In comparison, the market consensus currently estimates ₹158 for FY26 and ₹191 for FY27.
The brokerage sees significant potential for further earnings upgrades, even after factoring in some moderation in trading volumes from October highs. It attributed October’s strong performance to elevated bullion prices, higher volatility, and growing interest in energy commodities.UBS also mentioned the contribution of new product launches, such as smaller-sized gold contracts, which accounted for about 40% of gold trading value in October, up from 30% in April 2025.
It further said that the launch of weekly and fortnightly options could provide additional upside, especially if regulators clarify their stance on such shorter-duration contracts.UBS has raised its earnings per share estimates by 27% and 23% for FY26 and FY27, respectively.
Last week, MCX faced an hours-long outage caused by a technical issue. The exchange subsequently shifted operations to its Disaster Recovery (DR) site before reopening the markets.
During the outage, MCX said trading would resume from the DR site but did not disclose the nature of the glitch.
Among 11 analysts covering MCX, five recommend a ‘Buy,’ four suggest ‘Hold,’ and two rate it ‘Sell.’
Shares of MCX rose 3.12% on Monday to ₹9,531.50, taking their gains for 2025 to nearly 52%.
