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Trump 2.0 | India needs to strike a delicate balance for strong ties with US, says expert

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Donald Trump has returned to the White House after a historic re-election. Trump, who was sworn in as America’s 47th president, signalled that he would put America first and threatened tariffs on several countries. Earlier this week, Trump again threatened 100% tariffs on BRICS bloc, which includes India, if they persist in their “de-dollarisation” efforts.

Ashok Malik, Partner at The Asia Group and Chair of its India Practice, said India needs to tread delicately to maintain relations with the US and strengthen them under Trump 2.0, especially as America is the country’s “most important business partner.”

“It’s a big market for India. It’s the source of technology. It’s a source of partnership in emerging areas such as AI, robotics, quantum computing, even green energy,” Malik told CNBC-TV18.

However, he cautioned that Trump is also likely to continue a “more protectionist mindset” that could put pressure on India. “There will be pressure to take positions that are more in harmony with US interests and US corporations,” Malik explained.

Also read: Donald Trump says he would ‘rather not’ have to impose tariffs on China

One area of potential friction is market access. Malik noted that Trump may demand “greater opening up of e-commerce” and seek more access for US products like cars, dairy, and agriculture. “We can’t open up everything, because we can’t hurt our farmers, but we can open up certain types of products,” he said.

On the energy front, Malik saw opportunities, stating: “If those sources of energy become available and those are cheaper than Russian energy, then obviously, Indian companies will look at that.”

He highlighted potential cooperation in areas like nuclear energy as well. Preserving technology and defence partnerships built under the Biden administration will also be crucial, according to Malik. “It would serve those technology and defence equities to compromise a little bit on certain kind of quickly finalise a trade deal,” he said.

The cryptocurrency sector is another area where India may face pressure. Malik acknowledged the “genuine concerns about crypto” but said this is also a “tipping point for the mainstream of crypto” that the government will have to consider.

Ultimately, Malik emphasised that India will need to maintain its strategic autonomy. “If certain adjustments in tariffs have to be made, I guess the government will be willing to make them up to a certain point,” he said.

As India navigates the new realities of Trump 2.0, balancing economic interests with strategic priorities will be the key challenge for policymakers in New Delhi.

Also read: World Economic Forum: Trump tells businesses to manufacture in US or face tariffs

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SEBI develops web-based portal for reporting of technical glitches by stock exchanges, other MIIs

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Markets regulator SEBI on Tuesday said it has developed a web-based portal for submission of preliminary and final root cause analysis (RCA) reports of technical glitches by stock exchanges and other market infrastructure institutions (MIIs).

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The new portal — Integrated SEBI Portal for Technical Glitches (iSPOT) — is aimed at streamlining the reporting process of technical glitches across MIIs as well as creating a centralized repository of technical glitches.

Presently, the MIIs — stock exchanges, clearing corporations and depositories — are required to report information about technical glitches and submit the Root Cause Analysis (RCA) reports to SEBI on a dedicated email ID .

In its circular, the regulator said, “The preliminary and RCA report of technical glitch shall be shared by the MII with Sebi through a dedicated web-based portal of SEBI viz. iSPOT”.

This would help to improve the data quality, traceability of historical submissions related to technical glitches at the end of SEBI and MIIs, system-generated reports for monitoring of various compliance requirements in a more focused manner and automated intimation to MIIs for submission of RCA report within SEBI defined timelines pursuant to submission of preliminary report by concerned MII, the regulator said.

iSPOT has been integrated with SEBI’s Intermediary(SI) portal for ease of access to MIIs and can be accessed by MIIs by using the existing login credentials of SI portal.

The new circular will come into force from February 3.

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Hardeep Singh Puri: Trump a ‘plus plus’ for energy market, India will buy oil wherever price is right

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Union Petroleum and Natural Gas Minister Hardeep Singh Puri shared insights into India’s energy roadmap for 2025 during an exclusive conversation with CNBC-TV18 at the Energise India event, a precursor to India Energy Week.

Puri highlighted the nation’s approach to securing energy security, including diversification of crude oil imports and promoting ethanol blending.

“India is already importing crude from over 30 countries,” Puri said, adding that the nation will continue importing oil from wherever prices are favourable.

“We will continue importing from anywhere if the price is right,” He said while  also highlighted the rising role of the US, with India already importing $20 billion worth of energy from the country.

The minister noted that despite OPEC+ production cuts, global oil supply remains ample, driven by increased production from countries like the US, Canada, and Guyana.

Also read: India is not worried about US sanctions on Russian oil

“2024 has confirmed that more energy is coming to the market than can be consumed in the foreseeable future,” Puri stated.  For instance, the US, already producing 13 million barrels per day (mbpd), could add 1.5 mbpd to the market.

Meanwhile, despite OPEC+ reducing production by 5 million barrels per day, global oil prices hover at $70–72 per barrel, below their desired $80 mark.

“The newly elected US President is appealing for lower oil prices, and this is positive news for economies,” Puri said, adding that it is a ‘plus plus’ for the energy sector.

Additionally, he highlighted the progress in ethanol blending, which surpassed 19% in December 2024, inching closer to the target of 20%.

“If the target is 20% by the end of the ethanol blending year in October, and we are already in January with previous figures nearing that mark, it’s clear we’ve essentially achieved the target,” Puri said.

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Europe considers sending troops to Ukraine if there’s a ceasefire. But would Russia accept?

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With Russia wearing down Ukraine’s stretched forces and new U.S. President Donald Trump pressuring the two sides to end their nearly 3-year-old war, Kyiv and some of its European allies are discussing how that might be achieved in a way that would guarantee Ukraine’s future security.

Several ideas have been floated in the past, but the one currently gaining currency would station thousands of European troops in Ukraine, though not under a NATO banner, to serve as a deterrent and rapid reaction force should Russia invade again — an apparent non-starter for Moscow.

Kyiv has signaled a willingness to consider ceasefire terms, but Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has said security promises from Kyiv’s allies would be key to a just peace and that without them, it would only be a matter of time before Russia invaded again. Ukrainian officials say past agreements with the Kremlin were worthless, pointing to 2014 and 2015 pacts Russia signed after illegally annexing Crimea but then broke with its 2022 invasion.

It remains to be seen whether Russia would want to end the war while its forces appear to be on the front foot, even if they’re sustaining heavy losses, or what terms the Kremlin might seek. But the rest of Europe is coming to terms with what a Ukrainian defeat would mean for its security.

“This isn’t just about Ukraine’s sovereignty. Because if Russia succeeds in this aggression, it will impact all of us for a very, very long time,” U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer said during a recent visit to Kyiv.

With Trump’s return to the White House and his threats to withdraw crucial U.S. support from Kyiv unless Europe bears more of the Ukraine burden, some European leaders have pledged their resolve. French President Emmanuel Macron said building security guarantees for Ukraine is a key responsibility for European nations, while Starmer said the U.K. would play a “full part” in any peacekeeping efforts.

Ukraine considers NATO to be the most robust deterrent to Russia, but Trump and some top European leaders have poured cold water on the idea of a NATO-led peacekeeping presence in Ukraine.

Among the ideas that apparently haven’t gained traction was one in which allies would invest massively to arm Ukraine to the hilt to deter a future Russian assault. It would almost surely require major American support that might not be forthcoming under Trump.

Another idea, suggested by Ukrainians, would have Ukraine’s allies defend it from large-scale Russian air attacks, similar to how the U.S. helped defend Israel from an Iranian drone attack last year. Experts say one possible downside to this approach would be that it would expose sophisticated Western defense technology to Russian military learning.

A third idea, which is getting attention, is one Macron floated nearly a year ago and is modeled on the Korean armistice. It envisages Western troops being stationed in Ukraine as a deterrent and rapid reaction force.

Zelenskyy said there would need to be enough allied troops stationed in Ukraine to overcome Russia’s manpower advantage.

Furthermore, he said, Kyiv would need sufficient flows of weapons, including long-range capabilities able to strike Moscow’s defense industrial complex, including some that are more than 1,000 kilometers (620 miles) deep inside Russian territory. Trump opposes the idea.

Although Trump is pushing Zelenskyy and Russian President Vladimir Putin to “make a deal,” European leaders are grappling with questions over how much military and financial support they could theoretically offer, and the amount of political risk they would be prepared to take domestically if they were to send troops to Ukraine and possibly put them in harm’s way.

The discussions could be for naught. Russia views Ukraine as part of its geopolitical backyard, not the West’s. Putin believes he’s winning the war and can outlast Kyiv, and he won’t stomach a proposal that would put Western troops in Ukraine, current and former senior European and Russian officials told The Associated Press.

“Putin would never say yes to this,” and European nations would be unlikely to go ahead if Putin makes it clear it’s a red line, said Boris Bondarev, a former Russian diplomat who quit his role in protest after the war started.

Maria Zakharova, Russia’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson, said Thursday that NATO troops in Ukraine would be “categorically unacceptable” and provoke “uncontrolled escalation.”

Nevertheless, an advisor to the Ukrainian government said “technical discussions” with allies are ongoing and speculated that Moscow might accept such scenario depending on what concessions Ukraine is willing to make. The official spoke to the AP on the condition of anonymity to speak freely about sensitive matters.

Zelenskyy indicated this week that he wants foreign support and that Ukraine would need tens of thousands of allied troops at a minimum.

If European nations were to agree to send troops to Ukraine, it would send a strong signal to Russia that Europe intends to have skin in the game, said Camille Grand, a former NATO official now with the European Council on Foreign Relations.

But even if European nations were to agree, there are questions around Europe’s military production capacity, manpower and ability to fill a potential vacuum if there’s an expected reduction in U.S. aid under Trump. The U.S. provides Kyiv with 40% of its military support.

Europe’s defense production is fragmented along national lines and is underfunded, and there are questions around national governments’ ability to defend their own people, let alone meet Ukraine’s enormous needs.

There are many aspects of the Macron proposal that would need to be ironed out, including where in Ukraine allied forces would be deployed, which countries would send troops and what capabilities they would have “because that would also be a signal of their ability to fight,” said Marie Dumoulin, program director for Wider Europe at the European Council on Foreign Relations.

In conversations with the AP, Ukrainian officials described such allied troops as serving as a peacekeeping mission but also as a tripwire force, in which they would be committed to counterattacking in the event of a Russian assault.

“There are misrepresentations when people describe this as potential peacekeeping,” said Dumoulin. A senior Ukrainian official and two Western official both concurred. The officials spoke on condition of anonymity to speak freely about sensitive talks.

A traditional peacekeeping mission requires a UN vote, one that Russia can easily veto. It would also not include a guarantee to counterattack in the event of a Russian strike — a key component of the type of security guarantee Kyiv is seeking.

Though the initiative would occur outside of the NATO format, one Western official pointed to NATO’s multinational battalions in the Baltic countries — which, unlike Ukraine, are members of the alliance — as a possible model. Others have also alluded to stabilization forces in Bosnia as an example.

The Ukrainian president said he discussed the French proposal for foreign contingents with the U.K., France, Poland and the Baltic states, but the reality is, it would meet fierce resistance from Putin. Even so, opening negotiations with a proposal for a Western troop presence in Ukraine could leave European nations with negotiating room to maneuver with Putin, who would see such a suggestion “as NATO in Ukraine anyway,” Dumoulin said.

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Kotak Mahindra Bank launches BizLabs Accelerator to propel startups toward scalable growth

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Kotak Mahindra Bank has introduced the Kotak BizLabs Accelerator programme, an initiative under its corporate social responsibility (CSR) effort aimed at supporting early revenue-stage startups.

This programme is designed to help startups address key growth challenges and effectively scale their businesses. Kotak aims to foster entrepreneurial success through its comprehensive offerings while aligning with its broader CSR and ESG commitments.

The Kotak BizLabs programme seeks to support 1,000 startups through a community engagement initiative in collaboration with premier incubators such as IIM Ahmedabad Ventures, NSRCEL at IIM Bangalore, and T-Hub.

Startups participating in the programme will gain access to networking opportunities, a virtual knowledge centre, and hybrid workshops in several states, including Maharashtra, Karnataka, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, and more.

In addition to broad engagement, 50 high-potential startups will receive intensive acceleration support. Among these, 30 will be granted financial support of up to ₹15 lakh each.

For more on this programme and how it aims to support startups, CNBC-TV18 spoke to Rohit Bhasin, Head Affluent, NRI & Business Banking, CMO at Kotak Mahindra Bank; Himanshu Nivsarkar, Head of CSR & ESG at Kotak Mahindra Bank; Srivardhini K Jha, Chairperson, NSRCEL, Professor of Entrepreneurship at IIM Bangalore; and Chintan Bakshi, Partner of Incubation at IIM Ahmedabad.

Edited Excerpt:

Q: What prompted Kotak Mahindra Bank to launch this accelerator programme? Was there a gap you identified in the startup ecosystem, or does it largely align with a different strategic direction that the bank is taking?

Bhasin: Let me give you a bit of context on why this programme is extremely important for us. Self-employed customers are a key segment that’s important to us. Our bank has been built on the bedrock of this segment. While we have a share in the overall banking space, we have about a 4% share with self-employed customers. So, it’s a very core and important segment for us.

The second thing is, if you look at the SME and MSME space, while they significantly contribute to the country’s growth, they contribute to the workforce in the country. That said, they’re severely underrepresented when it comes to credit. And therefore, changing that paradigm and getting more and more SMEs and MSMEs into the credit lifecycle is a vital growth objective for us.

Specifically, when you come to the startups part of MSME, SME, which is where this programme is really looking at, we realise there are two types of startups. Some startups go from zero to one, and then startups that have built a proven business model and have to scale up from one to 100. While a lot of startups start at zero and become one. The more significant challenge happens when they scale up from one to 100. And that is where we saw the real problem.

When you look at why these startups cannot scale up, the first is that they don’t get the right product-market fit; they don’t get the resources they need, the professional resources who could come and help them scale up. Networking and mentorship are key challenges; finally, funding becomes a key challenge. So, these are the four challenges that we wanted to solve and with which we decided to launch the Kotak BizLabs programme.

Nawsarkar: I think there’s a 2017 study which identified that almost 90% of Indian accelerators failed to sustain for more than five years. And the reason for that was mentorship; the other was getting the proper network connection. So, the scale-up is a big challenge; I think this is where the Kotak Accelerator programme helps.

Q: I also want to understand from you how this accelerator programme ties into Kotak’s CSR and ESG commitments beyond sustainability and social impact. What are the broader themes or the outcomes that you’re targeting with this programme?

Nawsarkar: Let me start with the ESG aspect. In ESG, we are looking at it from an ecosystem development approach. If you look at the Kotak programme, we have a programme focused on SMEs with IIT Madras. In turn, IIT Madras has tied up with almost six other IITs, and they have set up centres across India to do decarbonisation efforts in the SME sector. So that’s one effort going on in terms of sustainability.

The other is our significant initiative, which we started last year with IIT Kanpur, where we are setting up Kotak School of Sustainability, which will lead efforts on sustainability pan-India through work in academics and research. So, it’s a considerable effort. The Kotak BizLab Accelerator programme fits in beautifully because we are looking at supporting companies in the circular economy. We are looking at climate tech. So, it is an extension of that activity and works very well from an ESG perspective.

Q: Srivardhini, you focus specifically on social impact startups. Based on your experience, what are early revenue-stage startups’ most pressing challenges? How do you see Kotak BizLabs addressing these challenges?

Jha: Startup entrepreneurship, in general, is fraught with risks. Many startups fail, and that’s the truth of it. However, many startups fail despite showing early promise. In some sense, they needlessly fail. So, we believe that providing that input with the right kind of support at the right time will help them overcome that valley of death and go through that scale-up phase more smoothly.

So, at NSRCEL, a large part of the work that we do is, in fact, around how we can help startups scale. So, these are ventures that have shown some early market traction. They may have a few customers and a little revenue, but how do we help them get to product-market fit? That’s really where we are coming at it from. So, we help these entrepreneurs rapidly iterate and arrive at a business model that can sustain them in the long run and contribute to society through job creation, GDP growth, etc.

We have been around for about 25 years at NSRCEL, so we’ve developed deep expertise in incubation. We have designed our unique methodology, so we bring this together and have also created an extensive repository of venture knowledge. So, we bring this all together and curate extremely well-designed programs. A lot of them are designed by IIM Bangalore faculty to help our ventures and our entrepreneurs get to product market fit.

Q: At IIM Ahmedabad Ventures, you have also been working with startups across stages, and there are various accelerator programmes we’ve seen, incubators, and funding support. What do you think makes this programme unique in addressing the requirements of early revenue-stage companies?

Bakshi: One of the best aspects of the programme is the fact that there is support available for entrepreneurs across the stages as they progress in the program. So, while about 10 or odd startups will be provided financial support, all through the programme, there will be some sort of support, lighter online support, for about 50 to 60 startups, which can cross the first sort of selection barrier. Then, we’ll also have pitches organised for the startups at three locations — Indore, Ahmedabad, and Jaipur.

We’ll also be getting the local angels, HNIs, etc. Then, a boot camp at IIM Ahmedabad will be at the top of the line. So, if you look closely, that’s a very important element in supporting early-stage entrepreneurs. It’s not a pure binary selection process; it’s not that either you’re in or out; even if you show some promise, online support will be provided. You could apply in the next cycle, next year.

Once you cross a certain stage, you get to pitch to investors and a select few, then go to IIM Ahmedabad for a very intensive boot camp, and a smaller shortlist out of that gets funding and portfolio support from the IIM Ahmedabad Ventures team. So, it’s almost like a funnel. We are mindful of the fact that a lot of entrepreneurs have high potential. They may not have done enough validation; therefore, they may not have made the cut beyond a certain level. But we are not rejecting them. It also helps us create a pipeline, let’s say, for future iterations of the programme.

Watch the accompanying video for the entire conversation.

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Budget 2025: What is the difference between subvention and subsidy

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Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman will present the Union Budget for the 2025-26 financial year on February 1, Saturday. The Budget document contains several technical terms that can be hard to understand and that’s why we’ve got your back.

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Let us examine the difference between two words that sound and feel similar but, in reality, are like chalk and cheese: subvention and subsidy.

Subvention is a mechanism through which the government instructs banks to offer loans to farmers at interest rates below market levels, sometimes even at zero interest, to reduce their financial burden.

To offset the loss in interest income for banks, the government compensates them by reimbursing the interest shortfall. This compensation is referred to as interest subvention.

Beyond facilitating access to affordable credit, governments also extend subsidies to lower the costs of essential agricultural inputs such as fertilisers and equipment. These subsidies enable farmers to procure vital resources at reduced prices, thereby supporting their financial stability and improving agricultural productivity.

Subsequently, these loans revert to standard market interest rates in subsequent years. This approach aims to mitigate financial hardships for farmers and facilitate their recovery during challenging times.

Such initiatives are integral to broader strategies aimed at enhancing food security, sustaining rural livelihoods, and promoting overall economic resilience in agricultural sectors.

Also Read: Budget 2025: 5 key policy changes Nomura expects

How is subvention different from subsidy?

A subsidy is a financial grant from the government aimed at increasing the production and consumption of specific goods or services. It involves the government covering a portion of the production costs for these items.

A subvention scheme offers relief by reducing the interest burden on a buyer’s loan, instead of making anything entirely free. In business transactions, sellers often include the interest payment in the product’s overall cost.

Also Read: Insurance, direct tax tweaks likely in Union Budget 2025

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Adani Green Energy: Sri Lankan govt revokes tariff pact, wants to renegotiate

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The Sri Lankan government has announced the formation of a cabinet-appointed project and negotiating committee to review and renegotiate the electricity tariffs under the power purchase agreement with the Adani Group, CNBC-TV18 sources confirmed. This move follows the revocation of a tariff decision made by the previous government under President Ranil Wickremesinghe, although the overall deal for the wind power projects remains unchanged.

In May 2024, the government, under President Wickremesinghe, agreed to purchase electricity at a rate of 8.2 cents per kWh from Adani Green Energy as part of a 20-year agreement for the development of wind power projects, aimed at generating 484 MW of power. However, the new administration under Anura Kumara Dissanayake has decided to revoke the agreed tariff, though the broader deal remains intact. These committees will now review the terms and renegotiate the tariffs with the company.

The Adani Group has issued a statement refuting reports that the 484 MW wind power projects in Mannar and Pooneryn have been cancelled. The company clarified that a standard review process is currently underway with the Sri Lankan government and reaffirmed its commitment to investing $1 billion in Sri Lanka’s green energy sector.

A company spokesperson explained, “The Sri Lankan Cabinet’s decision of 2 January 2025 to re-evaluate the tariff approved in May 2024 is part of a standard review process, particularly with a new government, to ensure that the terms align with their current priorities and energy policies. The project has not been cancelled.”

The development in Sri Lanka comes after Bangladesh’s highest court ordered the government to form a committee of experts to review the country’s power contact with Adani in November 2024.

Meanwhile, Adani Green Energy reported a strong performance in its Q3 financials, with consolidated net profits surging more than 85%, reaching ₹474 crore, compared to ₹256 crore in the same period last year.

ALSO READ | Adani Green shares slip amid report of Sri Lanka revoking power deal; company issues clarification

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Inflation, competition from e-rickshaws, hefty challans: Delhi’s auto drivers highlight challenges ahead of polls

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“I have an old and deep relationship with auto drivers. Today, I have eaten the salt of auto drivers, and I am committed to their welfare,” the Aam Aadmi Party chief said just after he and his wife visited an auto rickshaw driver’s home for lunch on December 10, 2024.

Arvind Kejriwal was making his poll pitch to the auto drivers, who have been a core voter base for the AAP since its inception. In 2013 and 2015, the auto driver community played a key role in the party’s election campaign in Delhi, and their vehicles carried the party’s posters. In the 2020 Assembly election too, their support continued. However, today, the auto drivers CNBC-TV18 spoke to say their woes have been piling up over the past decade, and they are now divided in their political leanings.

Mohammed Khalid, an auto driver in Laxmi Nagar, said, “Kejriwal made electricity free, water free, and that’s it. The roads are not clean. See how clean UP is; Delhi has failed in comparison to it.”

ALSO READ: In Pics | Here are top 10 richest candidates in Delhi elections

Manmohan Kumar Saxena, who picks up passengers from the New Delhi Railway Station, said, “I pay ₹9 per unit for electricity to the house owner and ₹200 for water. If you want to make electricity and water free, do it for the poor people, not for those who are house owners. They take money from us and run their ACs.”

The auto drivers also complained that the cost of living in the national capital has gone up while their incomes have dwindled, especially due to competition from e-rickshaws and bike taxis.

Jeevshankar, an auto driver for over three decades, said that he barely makes ₹500 per day. “Sometimes I just make ₹200 or ₹300 in a day, and then I have to pay rent or cover gas costs as well,” he said. Anil Kumar, the breadwinner of a family of six, said that the rising prices of CNG are burning a hole in his pocket. “Earlier, CNG used to cost ₹43; now it’s gone up to ₹76.9,” Kumar said.

Rajinder Soni, President of the Delhi Auto Rickshaw Sangh, pointed out that there is no limit on the number of e-rickshaws plying on the roads. He said, “If the Supreme Court has put a limit of 1 lakh on autos, then why is there no such norm for e-rickshaws?”

The auto driver community’s demands from the new government include subsidies to purchase new CNG vehicles, dedicated auto stands, and relief from hefty challans. Jitendra Gupta, who has been driving an auto for two decades, said that the Congress government was better for him.

“During Congress, I would have received a ₹500 challan for not wearing a uniform, but under AAP, I recently received a challan for ₹15,000. Auto drivers are not that rich that they can pay such a huge fine,” Gupta said.

Auto driver Rajmal Dubey expressed anger over Kejriwal’s failure to provide proper stands. Dubey said, “He promised many things but did nothing.”

While some auto drivers have joined the AAP, the auto rickshaw unions are seen as a crucial vote bank, and every party in the three-cornered race is keen on winning these drivers over.

Kejriwal announced five guarantees, including life insurance of up to ₹10 lakh, accident insurance of up to ₹5 lakh, and financial assistance of ₹1 lakh for a daughter’s wedding.

Meanwhile, the BJP has proposed the formation of an Auto-Taxi Driver Welfare Board, which will provide members with ₹10 lakh life insurance cover and ₹5 lakh accident cover.

Team Kejriwal is confident that this group of 1.5 lakh aam aadmis will support their party in securing another term. However, the BJP is hoping that anti-incumbency and its promises to these men in brown will help fulfill its vision of a ‘double engine’ government.

ALSO READ: Delhi Elections 2025: Majority of candidates contesting polls aged 41-50, says report

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Budget 2025: India has less than ₹1 lakh crore to stimulate the economy

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Ahead of Budget 2025, expectations are running high across all quarters. Individuals are hoping for tax cuts, corporations are lobbying for incentives, MSMEs want access to cheaper credit, voters are demanding more spending on infrastructure like roads and bridges, while government employees are seeking salary hikes. But does the government have the fiscal space to meet these demands?

The government has just ₹80,000 crore to ₹1 lakh crore in Budget 2025 for stimulating the economy, according to Neelkanth Mishra, Chief Economist at Axis Bank.

In an interaction with CNBC-TV18, Mishra breaks down the fiscal math to explain why the available fiscal space is constrained.

“If your GDP is growing at 10%, and if the fiscal deficit quantum remains the same, the deficit will come down from 4.9% to 4.5%,” Mishra said.

Also Read: Govt pegs FY25 fiscal deficit at 4.9% of GDP

In absolute terms, the fiscal deficit (the gap between government’s income and expenditure) currently stands at a little over ₹16 lakh crore. The government had set a fiscal deficit target of 4.9% for 2024-25, with a target of 4.5% or below by 2025-26 (FY26). The nominal GDP for the current year is expected to be around ₹324 lakh crore. 

Parameter Projections
Fiscal Deficit (2024-25) ₹16.5 lakh crore (4.9% of GDP)
Fiscal Deficit Target (2025-26) 4.5% of GDP or below
Nominal GDP Estimate (2024-25) ₹324 lakh crore

With nominal GDP expected to grow at 10%, tax revenues are also projected to increase by 10-11%, adding about ₹4.2-₹4.3 lakh crore in gross tax revenue.

Also Read: India’s April-November fiscal deficit at ₹8.47 lakh crore

After the share of taxes is transferred to states, the Centre is left with about ₹3 lakh crore, he explained. From this amount, ₹1.2 lakh crore is required for interest payment on past borrowings, leaving the government with ₹1.8-₹2 lakh crore.

After meeting mandatory spending obligations such as pensions, subsidies, and defence, the government is left with just ₹80,000 crore-₹1 lakh crore, which it can allocate to capital expenditure (capex) for infrastructure and other public projects.

Parameter Projections
Gross Tax Revenue Growth 10-11%, adding ₹4.2-₹4.3 lakh crore
Net Tax Revenue (Centre’s Share) ₹3 lakh crore (after transfer to states)
Interest Payments ₹1.2 lakh crore
Mandatory Spending (Pensions, etc.) ₹1-₹1.2 lakh crore
Balance With Govt ₹80,000 crore-₹1 lakh crore

Why the govt might stick to its fiscal path and where it could spend 

Samiran Chakraborty, Chief Economist-India at Citigroup, who joined the conversation with Mishra. pointed out that India’s fiscal policy has been conservative in recent years, and with multiple global headwinds, including the pressure on the rupee, it makes sense to remain conservative.

Also, with S&P putting India on a positive outlook for the first time in 19 years, the government has limited room for deviation if it hopes to secure a ratings upgrade.

Mishra believes the ₹80,000 crore to ₹1 lakh crore of fiscal space needs to be spent wisely, and capital expenditure offers a much stronger multiplier effect than tax cuts.

“If you spend another ₹50,000 crore on a tax cut, it’s a rounding error,” he said, adding that such small tweaks won’t significantly boost GDP growth. To meaningfully support growth by 1-1.5%, strategic spending on capex is essential.

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Donald Trump revives ‘Mexico City Policy’ restricting aid over abortion

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President Donald Trump signed an executive action reinstating the so-called Mexico City Policy, delivering an early and expected victory to opponents of abortion rights who helped fuel his return to power.

The White House announced the move on Friday, the same day as the annual March for Life event on the National Mall in Washington, a major gathering of anti-abortion rights advocates. Trump addressed the group via a video message, and Vice President JD Vance attended in person.

Under the policy, international nonprofit organisations must certify that they do not provide or promote abortion services or counseling — using funds from any source — to continue receiving US federal money.

The policy’s status invariably depends on which party is occupying the White House. It was enacted by Republican President Ronald Reagan, and in the subsequent decades has been repeatedly rescinded by Democratic presidents and reinstated by GOP office-holders. Trump reinstated and expanded it during his first term in office, and saw it rescinded again by Joe Biden.

During Trump’s first term in office, he expanded the policy to apply to the US President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief, maternal and child health and other US programs.

Trump also signed another related action to reaffirm the Hyde Amendment, a policy that dates back to 1977 that bans the use of federal money for abortion care.

Abortion is an issue on which Trump struggled with his messaging during the 2024 campaign as he sought to both retain his support among religious conservatives who helped propel him to the White House and court moderate and suburban women angered by the wave of restrictions following the Supreme Court’s overturning of Roe v. Wade. Trump nominated three of the conservative justices who repealed federal protections for abortion rights.

The right-flank of the Republican party and religious conservatives have pushed for a strict national ban. Trump has said he supports exceptions for women seeking abortions in cases involving rape, incest and when the life of the mother is at risk. He has said he would not sign a national abortion ban but has also suggested he would allow states to monitor women’s pregnancies to help enforce local restrictions on reproductive care.

Ahead of the march, Trump pardoned nearly two dozen people who were convicted for blocking access to abortion clinics.

“They will be released and they will be out very shortly,” Trump said Friday morning ahead of a trip to North Carolina and California. “It was disgraceful.”

Earlier this week, Trump also signed an executive order withdrawing from the World Health Organization.

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