The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is expected to keep the benchmark repo rate unchanged in its August monetary policy review on elevated inflation risks and pending the closure of the FCNR(B) deposit scheme, a poll of 10 economists and treasury heads has revealed.Most respondents anticipate that the central bank will maintain its policy stance as ’Neutral’ while adopting a hawkish tone amid rising inflation risks from geopolitical tensions, elevated crude oil prices and an uneven monsoon.Economists said the central bank will remain in a ”wait-and-watch” mode as it assesses the evolving inflation outlook.”As of now, trimmed core inflation remains benign and suggests a status quo is the best policy option for the time being, with caution being expressed through the policy tone,” said Aditi Nayar, chief economist at ICRA.In recent media outings, Governor Sanjay Malhotra has reiterated that inflation will be the central bank’s foremost priority going ahead, pointing out that progress of the monsoon is a key factor to watch out for.Gopal Tripathi, head of treasury at Jana Small Finance Bank said the central bank will wait for the monsoon to play out and for the success of the FCNR (B) scheme.The MPC will meet between August 3 and August 5 to decide on the policy rates. The central bank has reduced the repo rate by 1.25% since last year to aid growth.Despite expectations of a pause in August, the majority of respondents see the policy rate moving higher over the course of FY27. Most participants expect at least two rate hikes during the fiscal year if inflationary pressures intensify.”The RBI is expected to maintain a hawkish pause, balancing resilient domestic growth with supply-led inflation. Since inflation is largely driven by external shocks rather than demand, keeping rates unchanged allows the RBI to assess evolving risks like monsoon developments and geopolitical disruptions before taking further action,” said Balasubramanian R, head of treasury at Dhanlaxmi Bank.Most respondents expect no change in the central bank’s inflation forecast despite the recent spike in crude oil prices, although a few foresee an upward revision if geopolitical tensions persist.Balasubramanian expects the RBI to raise its FY27 retail inflation projection to 5.1%, citing imported inflation risks from higher energy prices.Expectations on growth projections also remained divided. Some economists believe resilient domestic demand could prompt a modest upward revision in the FY27 GDP growth forecast, while others expect no change. A few anticipate a slight downgrade due to weak global demand, higher energy costs and geopolitical uncertainty.Gaura Sengupta, economist at IDFC FIRST Bank, said the inflationary pressures are largely supply-driven and therefore may not warrant an immediate monetary policy response.”The risk to inflation is supply-side led. Monetary policy is not the appropriate tool as it works via the demand side. Fiscal policy will be the main response to manage inflation pressures,” she said, while adding that the RBI is likely to reiterate that it only seeks to curb excessive volatility in the rupee rather than target a specific exchange rate.On liquidity, the majority of respondents do not expect any major measures in the August policy. However, some believe the RBI could continue fine-tuning operations through variable-rate repo auctions and open market operations, if required, to ensure orderly money market conditions.”No, but measures are expected closer to September when liquidity infusion picks up,” Sengupta said.
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RBI likely to hold rates in August, maintain hawkish tone as inflation risks persist: Economists
Jet fuel price for domestic airlines increased by ₹5 per litre
Indian Oil Corporation (IOC) has increased the price of aviation turbine fuel (ATF) supplied to domestic airlines by ₹5 per litre, effective August 1.According to IOC, the price of ATF for domestic airlines has been raised to ₹115 per litre from ₹110 per litre.The latest revision is expected to increase fuel costs for domestic carriers.Aviation turbine fuel is one of the largest operating expenses for airlines, and changes in ATF prices can influence airline operating costs, although fares depend on several factors, including demand, competition and capacity.Meanwhile, IOC has reduced the price of commercial LPG cylinders from August 1, providing relief to businesses such as restaurants, hotels, caterers and other commercial establishments.The price of a 19-kg non-domestic LPG cylinder has been cut by ₹192 to ₹2,738 from ₹2,930, while the price of a 5-kg Free Trade LPG (FTL) non-domestic refill has been reduced by ₹46.50 to ₹762 from ₹808.50.The latest commercial LPG price cut marks the second consecutive monthly reduction. Commercial LPG prices had surged earlier this year following the West Asia crisis, which pushed international energy prices higher.Domestic LPG cylinder prices remain unchanged. A 14.2-kg household LPG cylinder continues to cost ₹942 in Delhi.
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RBI says forex inflows under swap facility cross $40 billion by July-end
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on August 1 said its concessional swap facility has mobilised $40.82 billion in foreign currency inflows till July 31, 2026, led by strong inflows through Foreign Currency Non-Resident (Bank) [FCNR(B)] deposits.According to data reported by authorised dealer banks, FCNR(B) deposits accounted for $36.73 billion of the total inflows, while Overseas Foreign Currency Borrowings (OFCBs) contributed $2.58 billion and External Commercial Borrowings (ECBs) added $1.52 billion.The RBI had announced the special swap facility on June 5, 2026, and operationalised it from June 8 to encourage foreign currency inflows and strengthen external sector liquidity.Under the facility, banks can mobilise fresh FCNR(B) deposits and raise overseas borrowings while availing concessional swaps with the RBI. The central bank had also said it would bear the cost of hedging under the facility.The swap window for FCNR(B) deposits is available until September 30, 2026, while the facility for OFCBs and ECBs will remain open until December 31, 2026.The RBI had introduced the measure as part of a broader package announced after its June monetary policy review to support durable foreign exchange inflows and ensure adequate liquidity in the foreign exchange market.First Published: Aug 1, 2026 10:22 AM IST
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Commercial LPG cylinder prices cut from August 1; domestic rates unchanged
Indian Oil Corporation (IOC) has reduced the price of commercial LPG cylinders from August 1, offering relief to restaurants, hotels, caterers and other businesses that rely on the fuel for daily operations.The prices of domestic LPG cylinders remain unchanged.According to IOC, the price of a 19-kg non-domestic LPG cylinder has been cut by ₹192 to ₹2,738 from ₹2,930 in Delhi.The price of the 5-kg Free Trade LPG (FTL) non-domestic refill has also been reduced by ₹46.50 to ₹762 per cylinder from ₹808.50.This is the second consecutive monthly reduction in commercial LPG prices.On July 1, oil marketing companies had reduced the price of a 19-kg commercial LPG cylinder by ₹183.50.Commercial LPG prices had surged earlier this year following the escalation of the West Asia crisis, which pushed international energy prices higher and disrupted supply chains.The price of a 19-kg commercial LPG cylinder had risen by ₹1,373 between February and June, increasing from ₹1,740.50 to ₹3,113.50.Commercial LPG cylinder prices are revised on the first day of every month based on benchmark international prices and foreign exchange rates. The retail price varies across states depending on local taxes, including VAT.There has been no change in the prices of domestic LPG cylinders used by households. A 14.2-kg domestic LPG cylinder continues to cost ₹942 in Delhi. Domestic LPG prices were last increased by ₹29 per cylinder on June 7.Commercial LPG cylinders are widely used by restaurants, hotels, roadside eateries, catering services, bakeries and industrial kitchens. The latest price cut is expected to lower fuel costs for such businesses, particularly those with high LPG consumption.Suraj Mehta, Chief Strategy Officer at Hindusthan National Glass & Industries, said the second consecutive reduction in commercial LPG prices would provide some relief to energy-intensive industries ahead of the festive season.”The timing could not be better. We are entering the festive quarter, when packaging demand from alcobev, pharmaceuticals and FMCG peaks, and lower fuel costs at exactly this point allow the industry to ramp up production without margins coming under strain,” Mehta said.He added that while energy costs remain above pre-crisis levels, the latest price cut improves cost predictability for businesses operating round the clock.Tanveer Kwatra, Hospitality Entrepreneur & founder of GRAMMIE, said, “A second straight cut in commercial LPG prices confirms a trend that consistency matters more than any single reduction. Coming just ahead of the festive season, this gives restaurants room to hold menu prices, protect margins and keep investing in the guest experience.”ALSO READ | Jet fuel price for domestic airlines increased by ₹5 per litre
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Cabinet extends PM-KISAN till FY31, approves ₹5,070 crore floating solar scheme
The Union Cabinet on Friday approved a series of measures aimed at strengthening farmer welfare, expanding sports infrastructure and accelerating India’s clean energy transition.The decisions include extending the Pradhan Mantri Kisan Samman Nidhi (PM-KISAN) scheme until FY31 with an outlay of ₹3.15 lakh crore, approving ₹36,441 crore for the revamped Khelo India Scheme, and clearing the ₹5,070-crore Pradhan Mantri Surya Sarovar Yojana (PM-SSY) to develop 5 GW of floating solar capacity backed by battery storage.PM-KISAN extended till FY31The Cabinet approved the continuation of the PM-KISAN scheme for another five years, from FY27 to FY31, with a financial outlay of ₹3.15 lakh crore.Eligible landholding farmer families will continue to receive ₹6,000 annually in three equal instalments through the Direct Benefit Transfer (DBT) mechanism.The government said the extension underscores its commitment to supporting farmers by providing timely income assistance for agricultural investments and improving rural livelihoods.Launched in February 2019, the scheme has transferred more than ₹4.47 lakh crore directly into farmers’ bank accounts through 23 instalments. More than 9.49 crore farmers received over ₹18,984 crore under the latest instalment, while over ₹1.71 lakh crore was disbursed during the COVID-19 pandemic. Women farmers have received more than ₹1.06 lakh crore under the scheme so far.Citing an evaluation by NITI Aayog’s Development Monitoring and Evaluation Office (DMEO), the government said over 92% of beneficiaries used the assistance for agricultural activities and investments, while around 85% reported higher farm incomes and reduced reliance on informal sources of credit.₹5,070 crore floating solar pushThe Cabinet also approved the Pradhan Mantri Surya Sarovar Yojana (PM-SSY), a ₹5,070-crore scheme aimed at accelerating the deployment of floating solar photovoltaic (FSPV) projects with co-located battery energy storage systems.The programme targets the development of 5,000 MW of floating solar capacity and 10,000 MWh of battery storage between FY27 and FY31, with financial support continuing until FY33.Under the scheme, the Centre will provide financial assistance of ₹1 crore per MW for eligible projects after commissioning. Developers can also receive up to ₹50 lakh per project for feasibility studies, including bathymetric, hydrographic and environmental assessments.The government said the initiative follows an assessment by the National Institute of Solar Energy (NISE), which estimated India’s floating solar potential at around 102 GW across reservoirs and inland water bodies.It expects the scheme to increase the country’s installed floating solar capacity from around 700 MW to 5.7 GW, cut nearly 10 million tonnes of carbon dioxide emissions annually, generate 16,000-17,000 full-time equivalent jobs, and support domestic manufacturing across the solar and energy storage value chain.Khelo India gets ₹36,441 croreThe Cabinet also approved an expanded Khelo India Scheme and enhanced assistance to National Sports Federations (NSFs) with a combined outlay of ₹36,441 crore for the period from 2026-27 to 2030-31.According to the government, the allocation is nearly eight times the outlay under the previous Khelo India programme. The revamped scheme aims to create a structured pathway for young athletes from grassroots competitions to the Olympic stage, while aligning with the Khelo Bharat Niti 2025 and the National Education Policy 2020.The government said the scheme also supports India’s long-term sporting ambitions, including preparations for the 2030 Commonwealth Games and the country’s bid to host the Olympic and Paralympic Games.Also Read: Unlocking 102 GW: What India’s floating solar scheme must deliver
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India’s fiscal deficit widens to ₹3.1 lakh crore in Q1 despite higher tax collections as capex picks up
India’s fiscal deficit widened to ₹3.1 lakh crore during the April-June quarter of FY27, up from about ₹2.8 lakh crore in the corresponding period last year, according to data released by the Controller General of Accounts (CGA) on Friday (July 31).The fiscal deficit, or the gap between the government’s expenditure and revenue, stood at ₹3,07,833 crore, accounting for 18.2% of the full-year Budget Estimate, compared with 17.9% in the year-ago period.The Centre has budgeted a fiscal deficit of ₹16.96 lakh crore, equivalent to 4.3% of gross domestic product, for FY27.Also read: The ₹84,084 crore plan to reduce India’s dependence on imported oilGovernment finances in the first quarter were supported by higher tax collections. Net tax revenue stood at ₹6.36 lakh crore, or 22.2% of the Budget Estimate for FY27, compared with 19% of the annual target in the corresponding period last year. In absolute terms, net tax receipts increased from around ₹5.4 lakh crore in April-June FY26 to ₹6.4 lakh crore in the first quarter of FY27.Non-tax revenue also increased to ₹3.8 lakh crore from ₹3.7 lakh crore a year earlier. These receipts include dividends from public sector enterprises and the Reserve Bank of India, spectrum-related income and government fees.Capital expenditure rises to ₹3.4 lakh croreThe Centre’s total expenditure during the first three months of FY27 stood at ₹13.57 lakh crore, or 25.4% of the full-year Budget Estimate, compared with 24.1% in the corresponding period last year. In absolute terms, expenditure rose from about ₹12.2 lakh crore to ₹13.6 lakh crore.Also read: No rate hike needed now, says Pronab Sen as economists urge RBI to watch growth risksCapital expenditure increased to ₹3.4 lakh crore during the quarter from ₹2.75 lakh crore a year earlier, reflecting higher spending on infrastructure and other asset-creating projects.The increase in capital outlay is in line with the government’s strategy of supporting economic growth through public investment while maintaining its fiscal consolidation path. Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman has set the fiscal deficit target for FY27 at 4.3% of gross domestic product.
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Deficit turned into dependence? India’s growing trade deficit with China
At present China has taken over the US as India’s largest trading partner with bilateral trade reaching $151.1 billion. The US has been India’s largest trading partner for last four consecutive years, write Parthu Venkatesh P and Durairaj Kumarasamy of MRIIRS’ Department of Economics, School of Commerce and Economics (SoCE).India’s trade deficit with China has exceeded the $112 billion (2025–26 Fiscal Year) an eye-catching figure that has raised concerns for import substitution, stringent economic policy and fast decoupling. But with the increased size of the deficit, while politically charged, challenges obscuring a more uncomfortable truth: the trade imbalance is not just large, it is functionally dependent in how India is engaging into the world economy. The figure below displays the severity of the trade deficit.Continue Reading with CNBC-TV18 Access MembershipPriority Access and Networking: CNBC-TV18’s flagship events Interaction with CNBC-TV18’s journalists Webinars & LIVE Q&As with India Inc. Leaders Exclusive CNBC-TV18 studio & newsroom tours Premium business insights, expert opinions & analysis Curated lifestyle privileges & offers
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Why Qualcomm believes India can become a global semiconductor manufacturing hub
India is well placed to become a major global hub for semiconductor and electronics manufacturing as companies diversify supply chains and the country’s domestic market continues to expand, according to Nakul Duggal, Executive Vice President and Group General Manager, Automotive, Industrial and Embedded IoT, and Robotics at Qualcomm Technologies.Speaking to CNBC-TV18, Duggal said India offers a rare combination of a large domestic market and export potential, making it one of the most attractive destinations for semiconductor manufacturing.”I think India has a fantastic future in manufacturing electronics, SMT and semiconductors,” Duggal said.He added that shifting geopolitical dynamics and the need for diversified global supply chains have strengthened India’s position in the semiconductor value chain.”If you think about the state of geopolitics and the need for multiple diversified supply chains, this is actually a really great time for India to be investing in everything that it is doing,” he said.Qualcomm expands manufacturing partnership in IndiaDuggal said Qualcomm Technologies has already strengthened its manufacturing presence in India through its partnership with Tata.”We have very recently partnered with Tata. We are working with them, and they are manufacturing a number of automotive-grade modules for us. That’s something we kicked off earlier this year,” he said.The collaboration reflects Qualcomm Technologies’ broader strategy of working with Indian partners as the country’s electronics manufacturing ecosystem matures.Large domestic market strengthens India’s caseAccording to Duggal, India’s semiconductor ambitions are supported not only by export opportunities but also by rising domestic demand as digital technologies become embedded across industries.”India is also unique in that, in addition to being an export opportunity, there is a very large domestic opportunity, both in terms of India’s own growth and the industries that exist here,” he said.He noted that semiconductors are becoming an essential component of an increasing number of products as digitisation accelerates across the economy.”Semiconductors are becoming part and parcel of almost everything that you will see in front of you as digitisation advances,” Duggal said.Opportunity extends beyond chip fabricationWhile India continues to expand its semiconductor ecosystem through manufacturing, assembly, testing and design initiatives, Duggal said building capabilities at scale will require sustained investment and long-term commitment.”I think it is a tremendous opportunity. It requires effort, no different from any other market of similar scale,” he said.He said the country’s semiconductor push addresses both strategic national priorities and global industry requirements.”Of all the opportunities at scale in front of India, this is one that has a massive national need as well as a very large international export opportunity,” Duggal said.India leapfrogging in advanced technologiesBeyond semiconductors, Duggal said India is increasingly developing technologies tailored to local market needs rather than simply adopting solutions created elsewhere.”I am just very excited about how quickly India is leapfrogging in markets where it sees the opportunity not just to introduce something that was built in another market a few years ago, but to figure out how to jump ahead to where the technology will naturally go,” he said.He added that strong domestic innovation is helping create differentiated products across industries, with industrial automation and robotics likely to emerge as the next major growth areas.”I think industrial automation will probably be the next area, and with the growth in robotics, I feel like that could be the next very interesting space to watch,” Duggal said.Duggal also told CNBC-TV18 that autonomous vehicles are expected to enter India as AI-powered driving systems mature, adding that advances in software and semiconductors are transforming cars into intelligent, software-defined machines.Watch accompanying video for full conversation.
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VST Industries Q1 profit falls 25%, margins contract as higher cigarette taxes weigh
Operating performance also weakened during the quarter. EBITDA fell 35.5% year-on-year to ₹50 crore from ₹77 crore, while EBITDA margin contracted to 19.3% from 25.8% a year ago.
VST Industries said that with effect from February 1, 2026, the Government of India reduced the Compensation Cess on cigarettes to nil while significantly increasing GST and excise duty on the product. The company said the changes resulted in the overall tax incidence on cigarettes increasing by about 50% on average.Illicit trade remains key concern
Commenting on the performance, Managing Director Piyush Srivastava said the company expects a challenging year in view of the extraordinary tax increases.
“Given the extraordinary tax increases, a challenging year awaits us. We are adopting a measured pricing approach across our brands to help protect our consumer base. However, growth of illicit trade remains a significant threat to the industry,” he said.
Srivastava added that the company is focused on recovering volumes by strengthening its brand portfolio and maintaining disciplined in-market execution.
He also said that ongoing geopolitical instability in the West Asia continues to weigh on growth in the company’s unmanufactured tobacco business.”We remain steadfast in our commitment to creating superior value for consumers and stakeholders,” he said.
Shares of VST Industries Ltd ended 1.64% lower at ₹230.85 on the NSE on Tuesday, ahead of the company’s June quarter earnings announcement.
Also Read: DCM Shriram Q1 net profit jumps over six-fold on higher revenue and EBITDA growth
Banks to disclose bulk deposit rates daily as RBI revamps pricing rules
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has overhauled the rules governing interest rates on rupee bulk deposits, allowing banks greater flexibility in pricing large deposits based on their liquidity profile while introducing stricter transparency requirements around interest rate disclosures.The revised directions, which will come into force from October 1, 2026, require banks to publish interest rates for bulk deposits on their websites by 10:00 am on every business day, with a grace period extending until 10:10 am.However, deposits of less than ₹3 crore have been kept outside this requirement, as banks already disclose interest rates for such deposits before the start of the business day.Under the revised framework, banks can now offer differential interest rates on bulk deposits based on the Liquidity Coverage Ratio (LCR) run-off rates applicable to different categories of depositors. The flexibility has also been extended to eligible non-resident rupee deposits, where applicable.The move recognises the differing liquidity characteristics of deposits under the LCR framework. Retail deposits generally attract lower run-off rates and are considered more stable sources of funding, requiring banks to maintain lower levels of liquid assets.Wholesale and non-retail deposits, on the other hand, carry higher run-off rates and therefore impose a greater liquidity burden on lenders.At the same time, the central bank reiterated that banks cannot discriminate between similar deposits of the same size. Deposit rates offered on comparable deposits must remain uniform across branches and customers, and banks must strictly adhere to the rates disclosed in advance on their websites.The RBI also rejected requests from banks seeking permission to extend LCR-linked differential pricing to deposits below ₹3 crore. According to the regulator, allowing such flexibility would make pricing for smaller deposits “more subjective and complex”.Another industry suggestion, seeking a standardised categorisation of entities based on applicable run-off rates, was also turned down. Instead, the RBI said banks should undertake the necessary classification themselves, based on the run-off rates they already apply while computing and submitting their LCR returns to the central bank.The revised framework follows feedback received from banks and the Fixed Income Money Market and Derivatives Association of India (FIMMDA) and aims to balance pricing flexibility with greater transparency and consistency in deposit mobilisation.Also Read: From 19 to 86: Meet the youngest and oldest women on the 2026 Candere Hurun Leaders List(Edited by : Sheersh Kapoor)First Published: Jul 30, 2026 9:46 PM IST
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