Tuesday, August 12, 2025

Nvidia At $4 Trillion: Scale, challenges and what if it was a country!

Date:

AI-giant Nvidia Corp. became the first company in the world to cross $4 trillion in market capitalisation. The company took just over 13 months to add another $1 trillion to its market capitalisation, having crossed the $3 trillion mark in June last year.

Market Cap Date Sessions Taken
$1 Trillion May 30, 2023
$2 Trillion February 23, 2024 186
$3 Trillion June  5,  2024 70
$4 Trillion July  9,  2025 272


With this, Nvidia is now worth over 7.5% of the entire S&P 500. The stock’s market cap is higher than the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of most of the global countries. In case Nvidia happened to be a country, it would be the fifth largest country in the world in terms of GDP size, following the US, China, Germany and Japan. The company’s market capitalisation is almost at par with the Indian economy.

Country GDP Size ($Trillion)
US 29.18
China 18.7
Germany 4.66
Japan 4.29
Nvidia (Market Cap) 4
India 3.91

Shares of Nvidia have recovered 88% from the tariffs lows that it had made in April this year.
At it current size, Nvidia is the equivalent of 30 HDFC Banks, 37 TCS’ and 22 Reliance Industries’ individually. The three companies are the largest Indian companies in terms of market cap.Since 2013, Nvidia’s shares have delivered negative returns only twice, back in 2018 and in 2022, when the stock had halved. Its average return over the last 15 years, on an annual basis, has been 70%.

The stock, in the last six years, has doubled in four of them, barring 2022 and this year, when the stock is up 22%.

Year Returns
2020 122%
2021 125%
2022 -50%
2023 239%
2024 171%
2025 (YTD) 22%

Nvidia has been grappling with some challenges in the recent past, particularly due to the issues between US and China, which has completely cut off a $50 billion market for the company, according to its founder and CEO Jensen Huang.The company had to take an inventory write-down in the first quarter and has also warned of an $8 billion hit due to these issues in the ongoing quarter as well.

Slowing revenue growth is another challenge that the street has to come to terms with, albeit the definition of slowing here is a 69% revenue growth in the first quarter, when the last few quarters has seen the company grow in excess of 100% compared to the previous year.

Quarter Revenue Growth
Q2 fy24 101%
Q3 FY24 205%
Q4 FY24 265%
Q1 FY25 262%
Q2 fy25 122%
Q3 FY25 93%
Q4 FY25 78%
Q1 FY26 70%

Out of the 78 analysts that have coverage on Nvidia, 68 of them have a “buy” rating on the stock, nine say “hold”, while one solitary analyst has a “sell” rating. Consensus estimates project another 7.3% upside for the stock on average.

Shares of Nvidia ended 1.8% higher at $162.88.

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