Oil edges higher with US-China trade tensions, demand in focus

Oil advanced after paring a slump in the week’s opening session, as investors weigh the fallout of renewed US-China trade tensions against demand.Brent traded above $63 a barrel — after gaining in the previous session following a 3.8% plunge on Friday — while West Texas Intermediate was near $60. US president Donald Trump eased his rhetoric against China after touting a fresh round of US tariffs and export curbs late last week and flagged openness to a deal with Beijing.

The resumption of the trade conflict between the two biggest oil users has introduced fresh uncertainty into the outlook. Prices have declined over the past two weeks as the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies increased supply, raising concerns about a surplus projected for later this year.

On Monday, the notoriously bullish producer group said in its monthly report that global demand will grow by 1.3 million barrels a day this year and by 1.4 million in 2026. That comes as other market watchers, including the International Energy Agency, predict a record surplus next year.Bearish signs are emerging on the futures curve. Brent’s timespreads starting in March 2026 and several subsequent months have tipped into contango, a structure where nearer-term contracts trade at a discount to longer-dated ones.

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