Any easing or tightening of Washington’s sanctions on the OPEC+ member would impact global oil flows, which were upended by the war and ensuing measures by the US and its allies to cut Moscow’s access to funds from energy. Russia is the largest crude exporter after Saudi Arabia, and has become reliant on buyers in China and India eager to buy oil at a discount to international benchmarks.
Trump announced a doubling of tariffs on Indian goods to 50% last week as a penalty for the nation’s purchases of Russian crude, and has also mulled further crackdowns on the so-called “shadow fleet” of tankers that transport the fuel. However, he has so far avoided targeting China — possibly because of concerns a total blockade would send oil prices skyrocketing and hurt US consumers.On Thursday, Trump warned he would impose “very severe consequences” if Putin didn’t agree to a ceasefire. He also said he hoped to use the summit to set up a “quick second meeting” with Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelenskiy after allies pressed him to push for such a meeting.
“A direct ceasefire is unlikely, but there may be outcomes for US-Russia cooperation and a framework for follow-up negotiations, which is bearish for oil prices,” said Zhou Mi, an analyst at a research institute affiliated with Chaos Ternary Futures Co.
There is unlikely to be any news from the summit before oil trading closes at 5 p.m. New York time on Friday, meaning potential price reactions won’t come until the market reopens on Monday morning in Asia.
Oil prices have lost about 10% this year on concerns over the effect on demand of Trump’s trade policy and the rapid return of OPEC+ barrels. Expectations for a record glut in 2026 are weighing on the market.
