According to the CME Fedwatch Tool, 97% of market participants expect the US Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged on May 7.
Orton said that fears around tariffs have begun to ease as the US administration appears more responsive to market reactions. The worst-case trade scenarios are being removed, and progress is being made on deals with countries like India, Japan, and South Korea. “We are finally talking about trade deals,” he said, suggesting that tariff-related risks may no longer threaten economic growth.
Rather than chasing the broader market, Orton advises focusing on companies with strong and sustainable earnings. He stressed that investors should be “leaning into specific stocks, specific sectors where there is durability with respect to earnings growth.”
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India remains a bright spot for Orton. He considers it a strong long-term play but prefers a selective approach. Among his top picks are ICICI Bank, which he called the “highest quality private bank in the country,” HDFC Bank, and Mahindra & Mahindra, which impressed him with strong earnings and growth in tractors and sports utility vehicles (SUVs).
Orton is also optimistic about European markets, which are supported by easing monetary policy and a strong fiscal push, especially in Germany. He favours sectors like banking, defence, and luxury consumer goods while remaining cautious on names exposed to China.
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He encouraged investors to view short-term market pullbacks as opportunities to build long-term positions, reinforcing his overall “glass half full” view of the global economy and equities.
For the entire interview, watch the accompanying video
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