‘Something big is coming at us,’ Indian foreign minister S Jaishankar’s prediction for next two years or less

“I am not saying it’s good or bad. I am just predicting what’s to come and I think something big is coming at us,” India’s foreign minister S Jaishankar said in a panel discussion organised by the Oberserver Research Foundation, a New Delhi-based thinktank, after the Munich Security Conference last week. Coming days after the Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to the US, Jaishankar painted a more tangible picture of the likely changes he expects in the next two years.Analysing the views articulated by the minister, it would seem that India is pushing for a wider consensus on the need, ways, and means to curtail China’s dominance and aggression in everything from global trade to geopolitics. “The rules-based order, the multilateral organisations, China is getting the best out of it. We  all agree to that. We (also say that we) must defend that because the alternative is worst. I am left scratching my head a bit,” he explained.

One of the ways to undermine China’s dominance in Asia would be to give India a permanent seat at the United Nations’ Security Council, something that New Delhi has been vying for and Beijing has been actively blocking for decades. Four out of the five permanent members of the UNSC have backed India’s bid for a permanent seat, which would undermine China’s dominance in Asia.

Until that materialises, India would hope for a more active QUAD, a diplomatic and military grouping representing Australia, India, Japan, and the US, which primarily aims to contain China’s influence and aggression in the Indo-Pacific region.

“What’s nice about the QUAD? It has no overheads… Everyone comes, pays their bills, it’s fair. If we are looking at a different vision of architecture, a different sense of the power of the US,” he added. The implied contrast may be to the model of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO), a military alliance of 32 member countries from Europe and North America, which relies on the US for two-thirds of its annual budget.

President Donald Trump has been a harsh critic of the US policy to foot a bulk of the NATO’s annual budget. While countries like Germany and Poland have stepped up their defence spending, many other European peers have not brought the minimum i.e. 2% of the GDP to the table, mandated by the military alliance as per the new cost-sharing formula agreed upon in 20n19.

According to Jaishankar, the emerging consensus among the influential groups in the US is that America would best serve its own interest if it isn’t hamstrung by its commitments and relationships abroad. Therefore, Jaishankar’s example may imply that Trump, a China hawk himself, may increase the focus on QUAD, which had a bit of stop-and-start phase under the Joe Biden administration in the US.

In their meeting last week, Trump and Modi also agreed to create a new defence partnership framework for until 2035. The pact is expected to be finalised later this year. While the two countries negotiate the sticky issue of tariffs, the common concern with China flexing its muscles may be a common ground that India and the US need to cooperate at the global stage.