Monday, June 23, 2025

S&P Global sees softer US growth as new tariffs add pressure

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New tariffs could push prices higher for US consumers and slow down the economy. “Tariffs, in itself, are generally inflationary,” said Satyam Panday, Chief US & Canada Economist at S&P Global Ratings.Panday estimates that the new trade measures, including a 25% tariff on Canada and Mexico and 10% on China, could raise inflation by 60 to 70 basis points. This means inflation, which was expected to be around 2%, could now be above 3% in the next 12 months.
Consumers are already feeling the effects of price increases over the past few years, making this a key concern.
The United States imposed 25% tariffs on goods from Canada and Mexico. However, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said later on Tuesday that the US would likely meet Canada and Mexico “in the middle”, with an announcement coming as soon as Wednesday.Read Here | This Indian company believes it may benefit from US tariffs on other countries


S&P Global Ratings believes the US economy may slow down further in the first quarter, with GDP growth now projected to be around 1.5% instead of the earlier 2.5%.”The first quarter is already running a little bit negative,” Panday said, pointing to weather disruptions and businesses rushing imports ahead of tariffs. While some recovery is expected in February and March, overall growth is likely to be softer.

S&P Global Ratings sees tariffs as not just trade restrictions—they are also being used to negotiate deals. The US administration is taking a tough opening stance with high tariffs but may be open to compromise. “If he thinks he’s getting a good deal, he will compromise,” Panday said, referring to potential middle-ground discussions with Canada and Mexico.

Tariff policies align with efforts to bolster domestic production and national security. The US government is focused on strengthening industries linked to national security, such as steel, aluminium, and critical minerals used in defence and new technologies.

Beyond trade protection, the US government is looking at tariffs as a source of revenue. The administration is expected to use these funds to support policies like extending tax cuts. This adds another layer to the decision, making it not just about trade but also about budget planning.

Also Read | India well-placed to gain from global trade realignment, says Oppenheimer’s Stoltzfus

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