Stock Market Fall: Nifty may drop another 2,500 points, says Biju Samuel of Elara

Biju Samuel of Elara Capital expects the Nifty to fall another 2,500 points to levels of 20,000 or even below, before eventually finding support at levels of 19,500. The Nifty 50 index has already corrected more than 16% from its September 2024 peak of 26,277.In an interaction with CNBC-TV18 on Monday, March 3, Samuel said that this is currently the first wave of the bear market and that this may continue for 18-24 months. “We are five months in as of now,” he said.

The Elara Capital chartist expects the Nifty to fall below its June 4 low of 21,281, which was the day the Lok Sabha election results were declared. In three months from there, the index had rallied nearly 5,000 points to make a record high in September.

On the flip side, Samuel expects the bull market in the US to remain intact and he sees a turnaround from last week’s fall on Wall Street.India, an outperformer for the last four years, could go on to underperform the global equity markets, according to Samuel.

Samuel further added that IT could be one pocket where there is a potential long-term structure and he expects the sector to be a safe haven for the next 16-18 months. The Nifty IT index is down 19% from its peak which it had hit on December 13 last year. He cited strength in the US market as a factor behind the potential outperformance of IT stocks going forward.

The Nifty 50 index had opened higher on Monday but has given up all the opening gains to trade around the 22,000 mark. The index fell over 3% last week due to persistent FII selling and uncertainties over US President Donald Trump’s tariff imposition starting March 4.