The escalating tariff war led by US President Donald Trump is a “lose-lose game” for all parties involved, said Lawrence Loh, Professor of Strategy & Policy at the National University of Singapore, in an interview with CNBC-TV18. He noted that no country gains in a tariff environment. “What China is trying to do is actually minimise the damage for itself,” Loh said, adding that even transshipment routes are being closely monitored by the US to block workarounds.Professor Loh pointed out that a coordinated ASEAN response is unlikely despite the shared pressure, as each country has vastly different trade relationships with the US. “A common approach is practically impossible because each country is so diverse in terms of trade,” he said. For instance, Vietnam has the highest surplus with the US, while Singapore runs a deficit.
As negotiations continue, China could face the highest tariffs—potentially between 30% and 50%—if no deal is reached, Loh said. India too could be hit with a 26% tariff by August 1 unless it signs a deal with the US. “That 26% is actually quite high—almost comparable to the current 25% for Japan,” he warned.
Although some believe India could benefit as other Asian exporters face higher tariffs, Loh cautioned that the advantage is not guaranteed. “If no deal is struck with the US, the advantages for India will not really exist,” he said.Supply chains across Asia are expected to feel the strain of these tariffs, which Loh described as adding an “artificially added price” to goods. “This will make it very difficult for many companies to continue to operate in such a setting,” he added.
As negotiations continue, China could face the highest tariffs—potentially between 30% and 50%—if no deal is reached, Loh said. India too could be hit with a 26% tariff by August 1 unless it signs a deal with the US. “That 26% is actually quite high—almost comparable to the current 25% for Japan,” he warned.
Although some believe India could benefit as other Asian exporters face higher tariffs, Loh cautioned that the advantage is not guaranteed. “If no deal is struck with the US, the advantages for India will not really exist,” he said.Supply chains across Asia are expected to feel the strain of these tariffs, which Loh described as adding an “artificially added price” to goods. “This will make it very difficult for many companies to continue to operate in such a setting,” he added.
The Trump administration has given what Loh described as an “ultimatum” to 14 countries, urging them to negotiate or face steep duties. “It’s almost like take it or leave it, and many countries will just have to play by the rules,” he concluded.
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