This may be the worst quarter for earnings: Manishi Raychaudhuri

“I have a feeling that this might turn out to be the worst quarter before we have a certain degree of bottoming out of earnings estimates and a gradual recovery in the beginning of 2026,” Manishi Raychaudhuri, CEO of Emmer Capital Partners, told CNBC-TV18 on September 12.The Nifty 50 is down by a percent in the last year despite a series of stimulus measures from the government and the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), as corporate earnings failed to justify the valuations.

The one-year forward earnings estimate for the top 50 blue-chip stocks is currently at ₹1,104 per share. The price-to-earnings ratio of 21 times the estimated earnings a year down the line, slightly lower than the last two-years’ average of 22.8.

“I am still not enthused about consumer staples,” Raychaudhuri said. The stocks are still trading at 40 to 60 times one-year forward earnings while the growth is less than 10%.
He prefers private sector banks, wealth managers, and some consumer discretionary stocks. “Right at the forefront are automobiles, particularly four-wheeler passenger vehicles, which are likely to grow faster than two-wheelers,” he said.According to his estimate, the GST cuts alone is worth 0.5–0.6% of gross domestic product (GDP). He added that the Reserve Bank of India may cut rates by another 50–100 basis points (bps) over the next year.

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For the full interview, watch the accompanying video

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