Saturday, August 2, 2025

This PSU stock may fall 12% on higher valuations, price cuts, Citi warns

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Shares of NMDC Ltd. are in focus after brokerage firm Citi said it continues to maintain a negative catalyst watch on the stock.The brokerage has a “sell” rating on NMDC with a price target of ₹60 apiece, a potential downside of 11.7% from its previous closing price of ₹67.95 per share.

NMDC’s price cuts on lump ore and fines came into effect on Tuesday, July 1.

It has reduced its prices of lump ore by ₹600 per tonne to ₹5,700 per tonne and has cut its prices for fines by ₹500 per tonne to ₹4,850 per tonne.
This follows a sharp correction in long steel prices, which are down 11% since April 2025, while flat steel prices are down 3%, the brokerage said.Citi said NMDC’s fines prices are at 30% premium to export parity following Tuesday’s cut compared to 20% in the financial year 2025.
At the current price, NMDC is trading at an Enterprise Value to Earnings Before Interest, Tax, Depreciation and Amortisation (EBITDA) multiple of 5.8 times, which is higher than its global peers, which trade at an average multiple of 5 times.For the March quarter, NMDC’s revenue increased due to higher contribution from pellets and other minerals. However, iron ore realisations were weaker than expected. On the operational front, its earnings were weak as higher employee and other expenses weighed on margins.

NMDC’s management told CNBC-TV18 last month that they have moved to a formula-based pricing mechanism, which could prove to be a game changer for the company.

“What we are trying to do is move to formula-based pricing, which we started last time. A couple more instances of this new formula are being tried out. If that stabilises, I think it will be a game changer,” Amitava Mukherjee, CMD of NMDC and NMDC Steel, told CNBC-TV18.

Of the 23 analysts that have coverage on the stock, 13 have a “buy” rating, four have a “hold” rating and six have a “sell” rating.

NMDC shares ended the previous session 2.9% lower. It has declined nearly 4% in the past month.

Also Read: Dreamfolks Services shares in focus after material impact warning due to program closure

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