Monday, November 10, 2025

Trade deal on track, but oil politics cloud India-US ties: Experts

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After a warm Diwali exchange between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and US President Donald Trump, the India-US trade discussions appear to be moving towards a conclusion, with both sides aiming for an ambitious bilateral agreement.Mukesh Aghi, President and CEO of the US-India Strategic Partnership Forum (USISPF), said there has been meaningful progress on the trade front. He noted that the Indian negotiator has returned from Washington, with most of the framework now in place.

“It serves US interest. It serves India’s interest to basically close the trade deal,” Aghi said, expressing optimism about the outcome.Also read: PM Modi thanks US Prez Trump for Diwali greetings, reiterates commitments against terrorismHe added that while discussions have covered tariff and non-tariff barriers, the political mood between the two nations has notably improved in recent weeks. Both governments, he said, appear committed to keeping the partnership stable amid global uncertainty.

Aghi clarified that the $100,000 fee on H-1B visas is temporary and valid for only one year, with limited impact on hiring. Some low-end jobs are moving offshore, he said, but demand for skilled Indian professionals remains strong in the US.He emphasised the crucial role of Indian talent in the US tech ecosystem, noting that nearly 60% of American AI start-ups have an Indian connection. Aghi said the US must reform its immigration policy to address a shortage of skilled workers and maintain its competitive edge.However, Washington’s repeated references to India’s oil imports from Russia continue to cloud the talks. President Trump recently stated that India would reduce such purchases—remarks analysts see as political pressure tied to trade negotiations.

Also Read: India-US trade talks show progress, no major differences: Government sources
Former Foreign Secretary Kanwal Sibal said these comments complicate diplomacy.

“Trump has been saying this now how many times I have lost count—that India must stop buying Russian oil, or India has agreed to stop buying Russian oil,” he said, calling the repetition unnecessary and counterproductive.
Sibal stressed that while India is open to buying more American crude if competitively priced, its energy ties with Russia should not be politicised or conflated with trade discussions. He warned that such rhetoric could undermine the spirit of cooperation ahead of President Vladimir Putin’s upcoming visit to India.Watch this video for more.(Edited by : Sheersh Kapoor)First Published: Oct 22, 2025 7:10 PM IST

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