Monday, June 23, 2025

Trade Setup for February 7: Nifty pins hopes on an RBI rate cut for a dash to 24,000

Date:

The market has erred on the side of caution for a better part of this week despite a strong upmove seen on Tuesday. Since then, the market has been rangebound and the usual weekly options expiry related volatility too was missing from the Nifty during Thursday’s trading session.

Company Value Change %Change

Of course, the market had to contend with six Nifty results on Thursday and is now gearing up for the big event on Friday, which is the Reserve Bank of India’s monetary policy decision, which will be the first one under the new Governor Sanjay Malhotra. The street is divided over whether the central bank will bite the bullet and cut rates for the first time in five years.

23,550, followed by 23,500 have now become key levels for the Nifty on the downside as the former also counts as Thursday’s low. Despite declining in three out of the four trading sessions this week so far, the index is still higher on a weekly basis.

However, Thursday’s fall meant that the Nifty’s three-day streak of making higher highs and higher lows on the charts was broken.Along with a weaker rupee and an impending credit policy, the Nifty also has to react to results from ITC, Bharti Airtel, Hero MotoCorp and Britannia. It would also not please the bulls that the two Nifty results that were reported during market hours, Trent and SBI, ended at their respective day’s low post their results.

While the Nifty was on the backfoot on Thursday, the broader markets were in the thick of things with plenty of stock-specific activity. While some were result reactions like Swiggy, others were building on to either strong or weak results. Abbott continued to build on to the gains, as did Castrol India.

Rupak De of LKP Securities said that 23,500 may continue to act as a significant support level but a decisive fall below that could change the sentiment. On the upside, resistance is placed at 23,800 and 24,050.

The near-term uptrend of the Nifty remains intact, according to Nagaraj Shetti of HDFC Securities. He expects the current weakness to find support between 23,500 – 23,450 levels and a decisive bounce above 23,800 can trigger another round of upside for the indices.

Kotak Securities’ Shrikant Chouhan said that the Nifty can bounce back to 23,750 – 23,8000 levels provided it trades above the 23,500 mark. On the flip side, a move below 23,500 can make the uptrend vulnerable as traders may exit their longs.

Despite SBI closing at the lowest point of the day post its results, the Nifty Bank managed a close in the green, outperforming the Nifty. The index has now closed higher for three days in a row and is also making higher highs on the charts for four straight sessions. The Nifty Bank will be the bigger focal point on Friday amidst the RBI policy decision.

Om Mehra of SAMCO Securities said that the Nifty Bank is holding above its 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at 50,100, while the 200-DMA at 51,000 acts as a key resistance for the index. A breakout above that mark can accelerate the bullish momentum on the index. Support on the downside is at 49,700.

The Nifty Bank is likely to consolidate in the 50,000 – 50,600 range in the short-term, according to Hrishikesh Yedve of Asit C Mehta Investment Interrmediates. A breakout in either direction can set the tone for the index, he added.


What Are The F&O Cues Indicating?

Fresh short positions were seen in these stocks on Thursday, meaning a decline in price but an increase in Open Interest:

Stock Price Change Changed
Phoenix Mills -5.08% 40.99%
Trent -8.49% 23.11%
Solar Industries -6.30% 21.69%
Page Industries -5.30% 18.28%
NCC -2.18% 13.75%

Short covering was seen in these stocks on Thursday, meaning an increase in price but a decline in Open Interest:

Stock Price Change Changed
Metropolis 3.51% -10.90%
It Blw 3.72% -10.25%
Cummins India 1.14% -7.90%
Abbott India 5.11% -5.58%
Sun TV 0.40% -5.35%

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