Tuesday, June 24, 2025

Trade Setup for January 28: Can the Nifty bulls prevent a fall to 22,500 amidst Wall Street meltdown?

Date:

After showing weakness from Friday’s highs, the Nifty50 witnessed a sharp sell-off on Monday, closing at a 7-month low. The index managed to hold levels above 22,800 but ended the day 263 points lower at 22,829, with 42 out of 50 stocks closing in the red.

Company Value Change %Change

The Indian equity markets had a challenging start to the January series expiry week, marking the fourth consecutive day of declines. Opening with a downside gap of 152 points, the Nifty continued to slide throughout the session as intraday recovery attempts faced consistent selling pressure. The opening downside gap remains intact.

While the Nifty50 lost 200 points and sought support near the 22,800 mark, broader market pain was more severe. The midcap index has fallen 15% from its record high, and all sectoral indices ended the day lower. PSU, Pharma, and IT were the top losing sectors.

Most heavyweights saw a closing in the red while ICICI Bank ended higher after Q3 earnings. FMCG stocks like HUL and Britannia were among the top Nifty gainers, both rising over 1%. On the other hand, the IT index fell 3%, dragged down by global cues. HCL Tech, Tech Mahindra, and Wipro were the top Nifty losers.

The broader market sell-off erased ₹8 lakh crore in investor wealth within the first two hours of Monday’s trading session.

Going ahead, market sentiment remains on the edge as investors brace for Wednesday’s Federal Reserve rate decision and accompanying policy guidance. This unease is further fueled by mixed earnings reports, geopolitical tensions, and the impending Union Budget, all of which have contributed to the prevailing uncertainty.

Additionally, global developments weighed heavily on Indian markets. The recent launch of DeepSeek, a Chinese AI startup, and former U.S. President Trump’s abrupt tariff announcement on Colombia have created fresh headwinds. DeepSeek’s emergence as the No. 1 free app on the iOS App Store has intensified concerns, as it positions itself as a free alternative to ChatGPT, which has signaled its intention to shift toward a for-profit model.

Stocks like Coal India, Tata Steel, Indraprastha Gas, Kaynes Technology India, Piramal Enterprises, among others, will remain in focus on Tuesday as these companies declared their December quarter results after market hours on Monday.

Investors will also focus on upcoming earnings reports from Bajaj Auto, Hindustan Zinc, Hyundai Motor India, Bharat Heavy Electricals, Cipla, JSW Energy, Suzlon, ideaForge Technology, and TVS Motor Company.

Meanwhile, foreign investors remained net sellers in the cash market adding pressure on the market performance on Monday, while domestic investors were net buyers.


What do the Nifty 50 charts indicate?

Nagaraj Shetti of HDFC Securities said the short-term trend of the Nifty continues to be negative. The market is now placed at the support of around 22,700-22,650 levels. Immediate resistance is at 23,000 levels.

LKP Securities’ Rupak De said the index has slipped from its recent consolidation on the daily chart, heightening pessimism across the Indian equity market. Sentiment is likely to favor bearish trades in the short term, particularly as long as the index remains below 23,000. On the lower side, the prevailing weakness could potentially lead to a decline toward 22,500.

“On the upside, the bearish gap of 23000-23050 is likely to resist any pullbacks ahead of the event, while the formidable obstacle is present around 23350, coinciding with the 20 DEMA,” said Osho Krishnan of Angel One.

According to Ajit Mishra of Religare Broking, inestors are now eyeing 22,700 as the next crucial support and its break would further deteriorate the situation. “We thus maintain our view to focus more on risk management, particularly in the midcap and small-cap segments and avoid adding to the loss-making trading positions.”

What Are The F&O Cues Indicating?

Nifty 50’s futures across series added 2.5% in Open Interest on Monday. Current rollovers are at 41.4%. January futures of the Nifty 50 contracts are trading at a premium of 17.3 points from 21.7 points earlier. On the other hand, Nifty Bank’s futures across series added 12.1% in Open Interest with current rollovers at 47.9%.

Nifty 50’s Put-Call Ratio is now at 0.76 from 0.95 earlier.

Aditya Birla Fashion, Bandhan Bank, L&T Finance, Can Fin Homes and Dixon Tech are out of the F&O ban.

Indimart, manappuram, mahanagar gas and pnb remain in the ban list.

Nifty 50 on the Call side for January 30 expiry:

On the Call side, the Nifty 50 strikes between 22,900 and 23,200 have seen Open Interest addition for this Thursday’s monthly expiry.

Strike Changed Premium
23,000 54.59 Lakh Added 88.3
22,900 27.76 Lakh Added 128.4
23,100 25.68 Lakh Added 59.35
23,200 17.53 Lakh Added 39.25

Nifty 50 on the Put side for January 30 expiry:

On the Put side, the 23,000 and 23,200 strikes on the Nifty 50 saw Open Interest shedding, while the 22,600 and 22,850 strike saw Open Interest addition.

Strike Changed Premium
23,200 12.35 Lakh Shed 391.8
23,000 9.96 Lakh Shed 240
22,600 10.63 Lakh Added 64.3
22,850 5.66 Lakh Added 155

Here are the stocks to watch ahead of Tuesday’s trading session:

Coal India: Net profit down 17.5% YoY at ₹8,491.2 crore. Revenue down 1% at ₹35,779.8 crore. EBITDA fell 5% to ₹12,317 crore, while margins contracted 150 basis points to 34.4%.

Tata Steel: Net profit down 43.4% YoY at ₹295.5 crore. Revenue down 3% at ₹53,648.3 crore. EBITDA down 5.8% at ₹5,900.6 crore, while margin stood at 11%.

IGL: Net profit down 33.7% QoQ at ₹285.8 crore. Revenue up 1.7% at ₹3,759.1 crore. EBITDA fell 32% to ₹363.7 crore, while margins contracted 480 basis points to 9.7%.

Tata Power: Arm TP Solar bags contract worth ₹455 crore to supply 300 MWp ALMM-certified solar modules to Maharashtra State Power Generation Company for the Mukhyamantri Saur Krushi Vahini Yojana (MSKVY) 2.0 project.

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