Thursday, July 31, 2025

Trade Setup for July 2: Nifty hinges on India-US trade deal, Q1 updates for next leg of upmove

Date:

Going into the new week, the Nifty had gained close to 700 points in four trading sessions. Monday saw the Nifty trade in a narrow range, which became narrower during Tuesday’s trading session.The 90-point range on Tuesday did result in a positive close for the Nifty, although it made no headway when it comes to levels. However, contrary to Monday, when the index made a “higher-high” on the chart and yet ended lower, it made a “lower-high” on the chart on Tuesday but managed to close in the green.
While failing to cross Monday’s high may not have pleased the bulls, the fact that the index has managed to hold on to 25,500 on a closing basis on both days of the week so far would be comforting.
A key contributor to the positive close on the Nifty, was Reliance Industries. The stock has now gained in four out of the last five trading session and is now 5% away from its record high levels. Nuvama gave Reliance its highest price target on the street at ₹1,801 on Tuesday, which resulted in the stock heading higher.All eyes are now on the India-US trade deal, which is said to be in the final stages of negotiations and with US Treasury Secretary stating that trade deals are on the agenda for next week and India is very close to signing one with the US, ahead of the July 9 deadline.

Back home, companies have started reporting their business updates for the quarter gone by and the focus will be on larger lenders and FMCG companies on the consumption trends in the country.

The current performance is proof of a timewise correction after the recent rally, according to Osho Krishnan of Angel One. Immediate support is seen at levels of 25,400 – 25,300, which aligns with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level. On the upside, 25,670 – 25,740 will act as a resistance zone that the index must cross for further upside.”Notably, a Doji candlestick pattern formed on the daily chart, indicating a state of indecision at current levels. Such a pattern often suggests a tug-of-war between bulls and bears and typically emerges near potential turning points or during consolidation phases,” Sudeep Shah of SBI Securities said.

The zone of 25,380-25,350 will act as immediate support for the index. If the index slips below the 25,350 level, then the next crucial support is placed at the 25,200 level. While on the upside, the zone of 25,600-25,630 will act as an immediate hurdle for the index, he added.

Apart from Reliance, the other major contributing factor to the Nifty ending in positive territory was the recovery seen in the Nifty Bank, which ended 150 points higher, after recovering over 300 points from the lows of the day. The recovery on the banking index was led by the PSU Bank index, which continued its outperformance, gaining for the sixth straight session.

In this six-day rally, the PSU Bank index has added close to ₹80,000 crore to its market capitalisation.

Stocks To Watch Out For ahead of Wednesday’s Trading Session:

  • Asian Paints: CCI orders an investigation against the company for abuse of dominant position. DG CCI to complete probe in 90 days. CCI has prima facie found that Asian Paints has violated India’s anti-trust laws. Decision taken in response to complaint filed by Grasim Industries.
  • Hyundai Indian Motor: Total monthly sales at 60,924 units. Domestic sales at 44,024 units. SUVs contribute to 67.6% of overall domestic sales in June.
  • Maruti Suzuki India: Total sales of 1.68 lakh units, in-line with expectations of 1.7 lakh units. Total sales down 6.3% to 1.68 lakh unit in June. Domestic sales down 12.2% in June. Total exports up 21.9% to 37,842 units.
  • Lupin: USFDA approves company’s Abbreviated New Drug Application (ANDA) of Loteprednol Etabonate Ophthalmic Gel, used in the treatment of post-operative inflammation and pain following oculr surgery.
  • JSW Energy: Signs Battery Energy Storage Purchase Agreements with Rajasthan Vidyut Utpadan Nigam Ltd. (RVNUL) for a 250 MW / 500 MWh Battery Energy Storage System.

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